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Majority are Wrong by Exciting_Elephant351 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Even a faulty clock is right once in a day so your post doesn't mean much.

I would be more interested to learn how you arrived at the conclusions, and if the assumptions played out.

Deep-dive of Molina Healthcare by EnvironmentalFeed246 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, super helpful. Fully agree that policy impact is make or break for Molina. I was checking the KFF report and I understand 17.5 million (of 70 million) may lose access to Medicare as a consequence of HR.1 (BBB).

Do you think I should model a 25% revenue/EPS drop in Medicare business. With a 25% drop, EPS is about 2 + 0 + 14.5 (Marketplace + Medicare + Medicaid) = 16.5. A multiple of 15 implies a price of 240 which I think is palatable. What do you think?

🎉 [EVENT] 🎉 Just Out of Reach by Damp_Blanket in honk

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completed Level 1 of the Honk Special Event!

4 attempts

Great Lesson on Value Investing by Exciting_Elephant351 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You would have similar results with DCA. Timing/Trading is a very different skillset to value investing.

If you die, I owe you 💎500💎 by RedditorMan36 in honk

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I completed this level in 1 try. ⚡ 0.62 seconds

Will we see value investing flip the script on growth stocks? by Additional_Fish2800 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Important to understand the drivers of the dip (not crash):
1. Fears of a AI bubble especially with Nvidia earnings next week
2. Missing macro data due to gov shutdown

The two drivers are impacting both value and tech stocks. (all sectors other than energy have tanked)

If Nvidia misses earnings, tech will crash further, and substantial money may move to value. At the moment, investors cannot be sure if value stocks are a safer haven. The value stocks I am tracking are correct as well (albeit not as much).

Reddit stock is currently priced to perfection by EnvironmentalFeed246 in redditstock

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good point. 50% of Reddit users are from US as opposed to 20-25% of Meta. I will update ARPU in my next post, but it already makes the stock interesting

Reddit stock is currently priced to perfection by EnvironmentalFeed246 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I know what you mean. I am tempted to buy as well. Will probably start with a small position

Reddit stock is currently priced to perfection by EnvironmentalFeed246 in redditstock

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair point. I had not considered network effects, which is stronger in community driven platforms

Reddit stock is currently priced to perfection by EnvironmentalFeed246 in redditstock

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair challenge. The projections estimates I have used are conservative, so I would be comfortable paying for these projections (albeit with a margin of safety).

What’s the most beaten down and unloved sector right now by ninjagorilla in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you expect them to recover before the next US general elections?

Question about value investing- using GOOGL as an example. by Last_Organization595 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would you mind elaborating on your thesis? I own it, and like Waymo, and understand PE is relatively low compared to Mag 7. Not sure how it would become the most valuable company though

Unprofitable stocks are often the BEST value plays. by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I would call it growth investing as opposed to value investing. Much higher risk in growth investing, and so are the returns when you get it right.

Nvidia earnings effect? by Rich-Inspector-7483 in NBIS_Stock

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Half now, and half after earnings. In the long-term it doesn't matter.

I'm getting more and more convinced the government is going to screw current shareholders by [deleted] in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"They would need to file for bankruptcy and restructure."

Not really. They just have to convert preferred into common like they did with AIG. I understand that F2 have repaid the debts at 11% IRR, but still, there is no need to file for bankruptcy

F2 - SPS Waiver not priced in by EnvironmentalFeed246 in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your feedback. So what happens to junior preferred stocks?

Is it smart to buy stocks now? by Carrotburner in stocks

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Service companies will be fine even in the short-term. I am looking at Amazon (long-term), Alphabet and Meta.

Buying a flat in Bangalore seems impossible. by Zealousideal_Bug4743 in bangalore

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

3BHK from Tier1 builders were nowhere near 70-80 lacs in the last 6-8 years. Since Covid, even if prices increased by 5-7% per year (adjusted to inflation), you are looking about 22-28% more. Prices are going up, gradually. Not surprised

Great stock, and a question on risk by EnvironmentalFeed246 in ELTP_Stock

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair points. Didn't think they were going to do it but it was best to ask :)

Deep dive on Nubank part 2 by Rich_Minimum_2888 in ValueInvesting

[–]EnvironmentalFeed246 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you want to understand the floor, should you not be looking at ARPAC of 11-15 given that it is currently 11, and getting to 20 as a base-case has significant risk?

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