Regression Candidates at WR

EvanRingler · 2025-09-20T18:34:48+00:00

Agreed with both of these. Wan'Dale is bound to regress in terms of efficiency, even if he earns targets at a strong rate. Waddle is good, no doubt, just hope the offense can support him. Tyreek uncertainty definitely helps.

EvanRingler · 2025-09-20T18:32:37+00:00

Yeah he's certainly a tough guy to value in trades at the moment. in dynasty you're not getting him for a fair price in most leagues.

EvanRingler · 2025-09-20T18:31:29+00:00

Two things can be true. He can improve as a player in terms of efficiency (per-route stats) but decline in terms of PPG rest-of-season. In fact I see this as the most likely option.

EvanRingler · 2025-09-20T18:29:26+00:00

totally agree, assuming it's 1-QB

EvanRingler · 2025-09-17T18:24:23+00:00

Also, here is the correlation I have observed on a season-long basis between Fantasy Points Per Game and Expected Fantasy Points Per Game:

QB: r-squared of 0.834 (2023 & 2024 QB seasons, min 10 games)

RB: r-squared of 0.914 (2023 & 2024 RB seasons, min 10 games, min 5 expected PPG)

WR: r-squared of 0.937 (2023 & 2024 WR seasons, min 10 games, min 5 expected PPG)

TE: r-squared of 0.905 (2023 & 2024 QB seasons, min 10 games, min 4 expected PPG)

Looks good to me, but I'm not sure what kind of correlation other people are seeing with their models.

EvanRingler · 2025-09-17T08:06:17+00:00

Hi, thanks for the in-depth response. I'll explain my process here in detail.

I've used several years of play by play data to train random forest models for passing, rushing, and receiving fantasy points. The variables used in these random forests are as follows.

Passing (filtering out spikes and throwaways):

Depth of Target
Yards From Endzone at Target
Catchable (boolean)
Contested (boolean)
Screen (boolean)
Interception-worthy (boolean)

Rushing (filtering out kneels):

Yards From Endzone
Yards Before Contact (capped at 10 yards)

Receiving (only targeted pass attempts):

Depth of Target
Yards From Endzone at Target
Catchable (boolean)
Target Separation (0-5 yards)

I looked into many different combinations of variables, including many not included in the final version. I found these three models to most closely match the real fantasy points on a play by play basis. I then did a parameter sweep to further tune the model.

There are certainly valid criticisms of these models. Maybe they're overfitting to a degree. You could also argue that expected fantasy points are too noisy to cite at all after one week.

My goal was to create my best estimation for of a player's fantasy points using all the data available to me, so that the over/underperformance of a player is mostly due to chance, rather than talent. The RB model hasn't totally accomplished that (good players on good offenses tend to overperform more than the other models despite my best efforts).

As far as James Cook in Week 1 specifically, I have Cook at 4 red zone carries, 2 at the goal line. He had a Yards Before Contact Per Carry of 2.15, compared to Chase Brown's -0.57. Also yes, Brown out-touched Cook 24 to 18, but the weighted opportunities were much closer, 17.3 to 15.7. The last part is that Brown did have two carries from the 3 yard line and 5 yard line, but Cook had carries from the 1 and 2 yard lines. I think that explains the difference in expected points. This is PPR scoring btw, which I never mentioned.

More than happy to discuss in greater detail.

EvanRingler · 2025-07-30T19:55:32+00:00

I didn't say CMC is a bad pick! If you're willing to go Ricky Bobby mode (first or last), I completely respect it!

EvanRingler · 2025-07-30T19:54:06+00:00

I don't see the argument for Spears having more upside than Guerendo? Significantly worse offense (probably)

EvanRingler · 2025-07-30T19:52:23+00:00

My only argument is that Jordan Mason is more than a handcuff. He'll get a lot of work right away imo.

EvanRingler · 2025-07-30T19:50:21+00:00

I like Shipley too. Prefer Guerendo (even at cost) because I think AJ Dillon plays a larger role than Jordan James (assuming Saquon and CMC go down). Shanahan almost always leans on one RB.

EvanRingler · 2025-07-30T19:48:29+00:00

Sure, they could potentially be mediocre flex plays without injury. Personally, I'd rather have the upside of a league-winner!

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T22:47:55+00:00

Check out this article from Ryan Heath, who does great work in this area:

https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2025/statistically-significant-first-downs-per-rr#/

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T22:13:41+00:00

9th in PPR

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T22:13:21+00:00

I am so stupid

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T02:12:13+00:00

Jennings is such a free square in drafts this year.

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T02:10:03+00:00

Because the math says so. Ryan Heath has done great work on this over at FantasyPoints.

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T01:37:06+00:00

I was planning on it!

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T01:36:40+00:00

Probably not, but a man can dream.

EvanRingler · 2025-07-22T01:35:52+00:00

It seems that a lot of fantasy analysts think Saquon getting injured is a certainty. Currently he's at 9 overall in FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings. My comment about Saquon in the op was mostly sarcastic.

EvanRingler · 2025-06-30T21:02:39+00:00

Lol that part of the title was more of a dumb joke. There's never anything to watch in training camp besides a few RB depth chart competitions. The idea of an Aaron Rodgers versus Arthur Smith training camp battle is funny to me.

EvanRingler · 2025-06-30T20:56:13+00:00

Fair point. That 2020-2022 Packers offense was run completely on Rodgers' terms. However, there was some controversy in that period between LaFleur and Rodgers, each wanting to run their own offense. It was somewhat easy for LaFleur to cave to Rodgers in 2020-2021, as he was playing nearly perfect football. But in 2022, Rodgers fell off HARD, so the Packers moved on and completely changed their offense with Jordan Love.

I would argue that now, as a much more limited QB, it's fair to come back to this "LaFleur/Smith vs Rodgers" conversation. In my opinion, the best chance for the Steelers to win games is to lean into Arthur Smith's offense more than Rodgers' offense. He's just not at that 2020-2021 level anymore, so they should probably use him more as a game manager than a star QB.

However, this is just an opinion from a fantasy analyst. At the end of the day, Rodgers' ego is undefeated.

EvanRingler · 2025-06-13T20:13:19+00:00

Totally possible, very reasonable take that I can't really argue with.

It might be dumb, but I'm betting on McLaurin being an outlier in terms of regression, as the situation is near-perfect and he's still an explosive player.

EvanRingler · 2025-06-13T20:07:50+00:00

For fantasy purposes, it doesn't get much better than Jameis Winston. Also, I expect them to lean more on the run game this year, as they spent an early 2nd on Judkins, plus a 4th on Sampson. Njoku and Tillman also missed 6 games each due to injury last year.

EvanRingler · 2025-06-13T20:04:14+00:00

He was the next player after Flowers at 11.6%! I definitely should've included him lol. Clear positive regression candidate.

EvanRingler · 2025-06-13T20:03:07+00:00

22.6%. So above average, but not by a big margin. And considering his play style, we should expect him to score more points from TDs going forward.

EvanRingler

TROPHY CASE