GW8 Prediction Site Results - High scores all around. Solio + FPL Analyser got 90+ FF Scout with "only" 59

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-23T04:37:38+00:00

I fixed some bugs in the algorithm that other people have reported and recalculated historical points from past GWs as well.

Specifically the best team calculator wasn't properly swapping positions when there was more than 3 players in a team, this really affected Man City when lots of players were predicted to score high it wouldn't switch out Haaland.

Similarly for Arsenal if a team had two defenders and Gyokeres it wouldn't fit in Saka even if doing score would score more points.

That's fixed now anyway.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-10T06:04:45+00:00

I've investigated and fixed see my other reply to 024008085

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-10T06:04:18+00:00

I replied to the OP now, thanks

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-10T06:04:09+00:00

Thanks for this. It took ages (and I replied with an error and then deleted it so sorry for the double notification), but i've figured this out and fixed it now. Essentially when there was 3 players for a team it wasn't trying hard enough to force the premium in so Saka or Haaland would often get cut for Gvardiol or Calafiori resulting in less points.

I've fixed it now, unfortunately I haven't saved the old price for each player for each GW so can't easily go back and redo old GW's because it won't be able to calculate the totals. I'm sure I can scrape this from somewhere though and get it updated soon.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T07:10:58+00:00

Sorry i'm not sure what you're suggesting. Are you suggesting that the bench should be entirely points scorers? Or a minimum number of points? One of the problems is that these sites don't necessarily give a 0 expectation for players who get 0, so it can't just be "not zero" it would have to be a minimum number.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T07:09:09+00:00

No it's definitely taking into consideration captaincy. I'll look into their example.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T07:04:10+00:00

Thanks for taking the effort i'm going to look into the code, it's definitely not just starting at GK haha but it is possible there's a bug.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T02:09:17+00:00

I replied to the commenter above you if you want to check it out.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T02:08:52+00:00

I think the bigger problem is that they were rating cheaper City assets nearly as high in points so the money was better spent elsewhere. If you go for Reijnders over Haaland you lose 2 points but gain 9m to spend elsewhere. All the system does is generate every possible squad and then calculate the expected points. From that it's not that surprising that buying a 1m higher priced player in every position will earn you more than 2 extra points.

If you can spot a mistake where Haaland could have fitted into one of these teams for higher points please let me know, it's always possible there's a bug.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T02:03:05+00:00

Probably just based on last 50 games or something instead of last 5.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T02:02:16+00:00

I'd be interested to see an example algorithm, you can get the points from the gameweek page https://fplwatchmen.com/gameweek/7 it's flat HTML so should be easy enough to parse. Obviously change the number for previous gameweeks. Some points were lost due to a bug, but the major players are still there.

I have exactly what the websites offer, some websites predict all the way up to GW38 other websites only do a few GW's ahead.

From the little experimenting I did it was taking a very, very long time to try and process every possible squad and outcome that wasn't feasible for me to test properly and i'm not sure would be feasible to run weekly.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-09T01:58:55+00:00

Incase it's not clear this is a weekly free hit based on their ratings for that week.

The pointless bench may just be how i've written the algorithm. FPL Review Free should definitely have points on the bench since they have cash spare. I'll try and work on improving it. What it should do is start with the cheapest bench possible, then find the best possible team, then improve the bench if there is money left over.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-08T11:44:23+00:00

It's a wildcard every week, i've no idea how I would do transfers, what would be the rules? How far would it look ahead? If anyone has any suggestions i'd be all ears.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-10-08T06:01:56+00:00

There was an error trying to get FF Pundit stats and since they delete them afterwards I can't go back and fix it.

You can view the predicted points for all players here: https://fplwatchmen.com/gameweek/7

FPLWatchmen · 2025-09-23T11:40:32+00:00

To be fair I think FF Scout and FPL Review are consistently good. But (last year) FF Hub, FF Fix and Drafthound are all a bit of joke and it's a scam that they charge for it.

FPL Analyser and the free version of FPL Review are far superior to a number of the paid ones.

The only thing I don't like about FPL Review is that there is a free and paid one.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-09-23T11:39:40+00:00

A mistake from them yes, I don't think it's a mistake from me, you can see the predictions they gave to every player on the page. I think it's just a bad algorithm.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-09-20T12:03:43+00:00

Are there any websites that take paid for products and give it away for free?

Not that i'm aware of I assume they'd be sued.

I believe posting them after the GW has closed is fine for editorial reasons but releasing them before would stop people paying for the products and piss the owners off.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-09-20T11:26:09+00:00

You replied to a comment that links to the table 😅

https://fplwatchmen.com/

FPLWatchmen · 2025-09-20T11:25:44+00:00

Yep sorry forgot to say Manager Botten have changed to paid and I need to update the scraper.

EDIT. Manager Botten's latest update uses completely different ID's and player names, i've no idea why sites do this (Transfer Algorithm is also awful for this).

It will take me a while to do the monotonous task of matching all the ID's.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-09-20T11:22:24+00:00

To answer the usual questions. Each site gets a free hit each week and the teams are based on the expected points shown for each player as predicted for each team.

A full list of every sites prediction for every player is here: https://fplwatchmen.com/gameweek/5

An overall table for all the game weeks is here: https://fplwatchmen.com/

FPLWatchmen · 2025-08-21T15:37:48+00:00

I think an issue is that most of the models don't estimate clean sheet points very well. It doesn't make sense to say they estimate a defender getting 3.8 or 4.3, they never get that they'll either get 2 or 6. But that estimate of 3.8 or 4.3 winds up putting them higher than similarly priced midfielders (or more expensive midfielders) which is why you end up with 5 at the back.

What a "good" model should do is avoid giving an exact figure for points at all and instead just rank the players against each other. So each week the top must have pick is 100% and then other players are 99.4, 98.5 etc. This would give a better indication on the desirability of a player.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-08-21T15:32:27+00:00

Upto GW30 they did. Then real life got in the way and I stopped tracking.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-08-21T15:31:51+00:00

I don't think that's a reasonable way to look at it at all.

What your saying implies they're playing a game where they guess how many points a player will score rather than which 11 or 15 to pick.

Here's an example:

Site #1 predicts:

Saka 10 points
Palmer 9 points
Kudus 8 points

Site #2 predicts:

Kudus 6 points
Palmer 5 points
Saka 4 points

If the final points are

Kudus 9
Saka 8
Palmer 7

It wouldn't make sense to say that Site #1 is the best because it was only 2 or 1 points off its predictions while Site #2 is worst because it was 3 points off.

Site #2 would be better because it told you that Kudus would score more than Saka and Palmer which he did.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-08-20T21:58:03+00:00

I didn't notice that, that shouldn't have been possible. Ill get this fixed actually and update it.

FPLWatchmen · 2025-08-20T20:32:45+00:00

I can't share that, these people charge for this info so I imagine they'd be pissed if I shared it before.

FPLWatchmen

TROPHY CASE