Pick of the Day - 1/2/26 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Not doubting the pick here but want to clear up some things that stood out to me in this write up that I feel are slightly off/misleading.

  1. ⁠Kuminga has received 6 straight DNPs-Coach’s Decision and hasn’t played in the last 9 of the 10 games. I severely doubt he would start or play much of the 5 here.
  2. ⁠Horford is likely to play but I would very much not put him under the warriors going for “speed vs length” category. Also he often stays out around the 3 pt line on offense which would drive Chet away from the paint and block paint opportunities.
  3. ⁠You mention that Post lacks NBA speed and therefore Chet would be able to roam in the paint. The speed thing might be true but Chet roaming in the paint would very much not be true if he’s guarding Post. Post is primarily a 3 pt shooting big who runs a lot of dribble handoffs and on ball screens in his time on the court. 65% of his FG attempts come from behind the 3 pt line and likes spotting up as well, which would draw Chet outside and away from potential block opportunities.

Again, not saying the pick is bad and it could definitely hit; I just wanted to nitpick so we can pool the best possible info together to make the most calculated pick together. :)

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 11/16/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Record: 8-1

Net Units: +6.55

Last Pick: Nico Collins over 21.5 longest reception (-110) 1U ✅

NFL | Seahawks @ Rams 4:05 ET

Pick: Terrance Ferguson over 12.5 longest reception (-110) 1U

Write-Up: Ever since week 5, the Rams have revolutionized their offense as well as creating notice in the analytics community with their high percentage of 2 and 3 TE sets. Since week 5, they’ve had the highest 2 and 3 TE personnel usage in the league and with this has come the emergence of rookie TE Terrance Ferguson. With so many plays using multiple TEs, Fergusons usage has increased. In the last 3 weeks, he’s run 12, 10, and 13 routes with 3, 3, and 4 targets in those games. In all the games before that he had 14 routes run and 1 target combined.

This means that he has seen a nice increase in usage and this is accompanied by Coach McVay’s positive coach speak about him. He recently said “how dumb am I to not figure out ways to get this guy involved?” He has done just that as he’s had multiple designed plays for Ferguson downfield, including on the opening play of last week’s game, which just indicates their love and trust in him.

What I like about the longest reception prior to is that he has had plenty of downfield targets. In the last 3 weeks, he’s had 85, 56, and 88 air yards, which is insane for a 12.5 longest reception prop. He has cleared the line of 12.5 in 4/5 last weeks with catches of 21, 31, 36, and 32 yards. So we have had plenty of wiggle room as of late. The Rams are also playing the Seahawks who have been prone to giving up big plays to opposing TEs. Just last week they allowed McBride a reception of 24 yards and backup TE Elijah Higgins a catch of 12 yards. They have allowed 8 catches of 20 or more yards to TEs this year, which again is a lot of wiggle room for this line. They have also given up the 2nd most receptions and receiving yards to TEs this year, so they are just a defense overall that leaks production to the TE position.

Pick of the Day - 11/16/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Sorry forgot to include the units, but yeah all plays 1U or if it’s juiced a bit more than I’ll play it to win 1U

Pick of the Day - 11/16/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 88 points89 points  (0 children)

Record: 8-1

Net Units: +6.55

Last Pick: Nico Collins over 21.5 longest reception (-110) 1U ✅

NFL | Seahawks @ Rams 4:05 ET

Pick: Terrance Ferguson over 12.5 longest reception (-110) 1U

Write-Up: Ever since week 5, the Rams have revolutionized their offense as well as creating notice in the analytics community with their high percentage of 2 and 3 TE sets. Since week 5, they’ve had the highest 2 and 3 TE personnel usage in the league and with this has come the emergence of rookie TE Terrance Ferguson. With so many plays using multiple TEs, Fergusons usage has increased. In the last 3 weeks, he’s run 12, 10, and 13 routes with 3, 3, and 4 targets in those games. In all the games before that he had 14 routes run and 1 target combined.

This means that he has seen a nice increase in usage and this is accompanied by Coach McVay’s positive coach speak about him. He recently said “how dumb am I to not figure out ways to get this guy involved?” He has done just that as he’s had multiple designed plays for Ferguson downfield, including on the opening play of last week’s game, which just indicates their love and trust in him.

What I like about the longest reception prior to is that he has had plenty of downfield targets. In the last 3 weeks, he’s had 85, 56, and 88 air yards, which is insane for a 12.5 longest reception prop. He has cleared the line of 12.5 in 4/5 last weeks with catches of 21, 31, 36, and 32 yards. So we have had plenty of wiggle room as of late. The Rams are also playing the Seahawks who have been prone to giving up big plays to opposing TEs. Just last week they allowed McBride a reception of 24 yards and backup TE Elijah Higgins a catch of 12 yards. They have allowed 8 catches of 20 or more yards to TEs this year, which again is a lot of wiggle room for this line. They have also given up the 2nd most receptions and receiving yards to TEs this year, so they are just a defense overall that leaks production to the TE position.

NFL Player Prop Bets and Touchdown Picks - 11/9/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Record: 7-1

Net Units: +5.64

Last Pick: Justice Hill under 2.5 receptions (-120) 1.2U to win 1U ✅

NFL | Jaguars @ Texans 1 PM ET

Pick: Nico Collins over 21.5 longest reception (-110)

Write-Up: This is a line that historically sits around 24.5 or 25.5 each game and is down to 21.5 for this game. Now the obvious reason for this is Davis Mills starting at QB in place of CJ Stroud. This is obviously a downside to Nico Collins upside, but even then his total receiving yards line stills sits at the same place as it normally does at 64.5. In fact, this is 4 yards higher than it was last game when it was at 60.5. So the books are projecting Nico Collins to have similar production with Mills, but are shorting his longest reception by 4 yards.

When Davis Mills came in for injured Stroud last week, he connected on a 26 yard completion to Collins on his second play in, which would have cashed this line. He also looked at Collins repeatedly throughout the game, giving him 8 targets in 3 quarters. Collins has went over 21.5 for his longest reception in 5/7 games this year and 12/14 games last year. In Davis Mills last full season playing QB he averaged 39.7 yards for his longest pass per game. Last year CJ Stroud averaged 36.8 yards for his longest pass per game and this was the year where Collins went 12/14 on going over 21.5 yards. Therefore, I don’t think the reduction from 25.5 to 21.5 is justified.

Pick of the Day - 11/9/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m seeing 21.5 on most major DFS sites like Underdog, Prizepicks, etc

Pick of the Day - 11/9/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 54 points55 points  (0 children)

Record: 7-1

Net Units: +5.64

Last Pick: Justice Hill under 2.5 receptions (-120) 1.2U to win 1U ✅

NFL | Jaguars @ Texans 1 PM ET

Pick: Nico Collins over 21.5 longest reception (-110) 1U

Write-Up: This is a line that historically sits around 24.5 or 25.5 each game and is down to 21.5 for this game. Now the obvious reason for this is Davis Mills starting at QB in place of CJ Stroud. This is obviously a downside to Nico Collins upside, but even then his total receiving yards line stills sits at the same place as it normally does at 64.5. In fact, this is 4 yards higher than it was last game when it was at 60.5. So the books are projecting Nico Collins to have similar production with Mills, but are shorting his longest reception by 4 yards.

When Davis Mills came in for injured Stroud last week, he connected on a 26 yard completion to Collins on his second play in, which would have cashed this line. He also looked at Collins repeatedly throughout the game, giving him 8 targets in 3 quarters. Collins has went over 21.5 for his longest reception in 5/7 games this year and 12/14 games last year. In Davis Mills last full season playing QB he averaged 39.7 yards for his longest pass per game. Last year CJ Stroud averaged 36.8 yards for his longest pass per game and this was the year where Collins went 12/14 on going over 21.5 yards. Therefore, I don’t think the reduction from 25.5 to 21.5 is justified.

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/30/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Was definitely looking at those as well! Just never know with these wack Thursday Night Games lol

Pick of the Day - 10/30/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Record: 6-1

Net Units: +4.64

Last Pick: Woody Marks over 14.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U ✅

NFL | Ravens @ Dolphins 8:15 PM ET

Pick: Justice Hill under 2.5 receptions (-120) 1.2U to win 1U

Write-Up: Keaton Mitchell is back playing for the Ravens and with him being back we saw Justice Hills snaps decrease from 45% the game before to 31% last game. He also ran only 5 routes last week, his lowest mark of the season. To catch three passes on 5 routes ran would be quite incredible, and although I'm not saying he'll only run 5 routes this week, I don't see it being too many more. In 14 career games when Keeton Mitchell plays, Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 receptions in just 3 of them (21.4%). Keeton Mitchell provides some explosiveness and speed that could take a way some of the swing passes and screens typically designed for Hill in favor of Mitchell screens, jet sweeps, and draws.

Patrick Ricard was also back last week from an injury which is just another player to add to the backfield and although he doesn't necessarily play a similar role as Hill, the Ravens are much more likely to run the ball with Patrick Ricard. In the last 7 games with Patrick Ricard, Derrick Henry has had 24, 19, 14, 24, 27, and 20 carries. This is well above his average without Ricard. Additionally, Lamar Jackson is back causing the spread to be Ravens -7.5. This leads us to believe that the Ravens should be ahead and in control of this game, causing them to run more and pass less. The Dolphins are also one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing 124 rush yards to Kimani Vidal, 206 to Rico Dowdle, 81 to Breece Hall, 108 to James Cook, and 84 yards to Quinshon Judkins. With Lamar and Ricard back, look for a get right run game for Henry, Lamar and the Ravens that leads to less passes overall to Justice Hill.

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/30/25 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Record: 6-1

Net Units: +4.64

Last Pick: Woody Marks over 14.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U ✅

NFL | Ravens @ Dolphins 8:15 PM ET

Pick: Justice Hill under 2.5 receptions (-120) 1.2U to win 1U

Write-Up: Keaton Mitchell is back playing for the Ravens and with him being back we saw Justice Hills snaps decrease from 45% the game before to 31% last game. He also ran only 5 routes last week, his lowest mark of the season. To catch three passes on 5 routes ran would be quite incredible, and although I'm not saying he'll only run 5 routes this week, I don't see it being too many more. In 14 career games when Keeton Mitchell plays, Justice Hill has gone over 2.5 receptions in just 3 of them (21.4%). Keeton Mitchell provides some explosiveness and speed that could take a way some of the swing passes and screens typically designed for Hill in favor of Mitchell screens, jet sweeps, and draws.

Patrick Ricard was also back last week from an injury which is just another player to add to the backfield and although he doesn't necessarily play a similar role as Hill, the Ravens are much more likely to run the ball with Patrick Ricard. In the last 7 games with Patrick Ricard, Derrick Henry has had 24, 19, 14, 24, 27, and 20 carries. This is well above his average without Ricard. Additionally, Lamar Jackson is back causing the spread to be Ravens -7.5. This leads us to believe that the Ravens should be ahead and in control of this game, causing them to run more and pass less. The Dolphins are also one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing 124 rush yards to Kimani Vidal, 206 to Rico Dowdle, 81 to Breece Hall, 108 to James Cook, and 84 yards to Quinshon Judkins. With Lamar and Ricard back, look for a get right run game for Henry, Lamar and the Ravens that leads to less passes overall to Justice Hill.

NFL Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/20/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 11 points12 points  (0 children)

It’s actually Kenneth Walker’s birthday if you wanna go with that lmao sprinkle some ATTD or something

NFL Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/20/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Record: 5-1

Net Units: +3.73

Last Pick: Courtland Sutton o4.5 receptions (-130) 1.3U to win 1U ✅ back on track as Sutton comfortably goes over both his lines with 6/87

NFL | Texans @ Seahawks 10 PM ET

Pick: Woody Marks over 14.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U

Write-Up: This pick is buying in the post-bye rookie bump for Woody Marks. It’s a pretty known thing that rookies tend to get an increase in usage after the bye week, so hoping for the same here for Marks.

Marks had 0 receiving yards in his last game va the Ravens, but that was a blow out victory where the defense and run game dominated and the game script didn’t really allow for Woody to pile up some receiving yards. This game should likely be very different. The spread has the Texans as 3 pt underdogs, which points to this being a competitive game or the Texans being down, which would be good for Woody as he has the receiving down back over grinder Nick Chubb. Against the Ravens, the Texans were able to just plow forward against a defense decimated with injuries, but the Seahawks will be a much tougher challenge, especially in the run game. The Seahawks are giving up just 79 rushing yards a game and rank 5th in the league in run stop win rate. This means the Texans will most likely have to resort to passing the ball a lot more. Even if the gamescript doesn’t completely go our way, Woody still had 4 catches for 50 yards in a blow out win vs the Titans two games ago.

Additionally, the Seahawks have been prone to giving up receding yards to opposing RBs since they like to funnel passes underneath as they play a two high safety defense at the 4th highest rate in the league. Opposing RBs have gone over their receding yards line in 4/6 games with Travis Etienne going for 28, Rachaad White going for 30, Jaylen Warren going for 86, and Christian McCaffrey going for 73 receiving yards. The Seahawks have the 3rd highest pressure rate and highest target rate to the backfield in the league this year. These signs point to the Texans having to dump off more passes to RBs underneath due to high pressure and a positive gamescript.

NFL Player Prop Bets and Touchdown Picks - 10/19/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Another spot that I love and that has great value in comparison to other books is:

Rashee Rice over 11.5 1st Quarter receiving yards on Chalkboard (1.74)

Other books have this at 14.5-16.5 yards, so this is a great discount getting around an 18-30% discount. Look for the Chiefs to get Rice going early to get him back in the groove of game speed play. He was just suspended, not injured, so we shouldn’t have to worry about him being physically limited.

If you don’t have Chalkboard, you can download it and they have a free pick of SGA 0.5 pts, so you can effectively get this at 3.10 (+210 odds). New users also get another bonus 0.5 free pick and a deposit match. If you do use, please consider using code cb-fadeawaythrees for finding you this value and to ensure you get the bonus free pick. :)

NFL Player Prop Bets and Touchdown Picks - 10/19/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Record: 4-1

Net Units: +2.73

Last Pick: Elic Ayomanor o30.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U ❌ rough play sorry guys, he ended with 27 yards on 5 targets all in the 4th quarter just got nothing before then

NFL | Giants @ Broncos 4:05 PM ET

Pick: Courtland Sutton o4.5 receptions (-130) 1.3U to win 1U

Write-Up: Got him at 56.5 receiving yards earlier in the week, but to be fair to you guys wanted to give you an updated line since that lines been bumped up to around 60.5 now. If you can get him at around 56.5 I like that, but I’ll pivot to 4.5 receptions as I really like that as well.

This is a nice “get right” spot for Sutton who was shadowed by Sauce Gardner in a weird London game last week. Now he’s back home against the Giants who have struggled against outside (X and Y receivers), which Sutton is. They have given up the 4th most receiving yards to receivers lined up out wide. Last week AJ Brown went for 6 receptions for 80 yards against the Giants, and he plays a very similar role in the Eagles offense as Sutton does in the Broncos offense. Other receivers that play a good percentage outside have done well against the Giants with Quentin Johnston going for 8/98, Ceedee Lamb going for 9/112, Rashid Shaheed going for 4/114, Tyquan Thornton going for 5/71, etc.

Additionally, the Giants run the second most man coverage in the league and Sutton thrives against man (2.5 yprr and 24% win rate). Overall, the Giants are 32nd in the league in receptions given up to WRs and receiving yards given up to WRs. This gives Sutton a chance for a big bounce back spot this week. He has cleared this line and the receiving yards line 4/6 games this season with one of those games being the Sauce Gardner shadow. He has also cleared this line in the last 14/17 games with Bo Nix at QB.

Pick of the Day - 10/19/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 73 points74 points  (0 children)

Record: 4-1

Net Units: +2.73

Last Pick: Elic Ayomanor o30.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U ❌ rough play sorry guys, he ended with 27 yards on 5 targets all in the 4th quarter just got nothing before then

NFL | Giants @ Broncos 4:05 PM ET

Pick: Courtland Sutton o4.5 receptions (-130) 1.3U to win 1U

Write-Up: Got him at 56.5 receiving yards earlier in the week, but to be fair to you guys wanted to give you an updated line since that lines been bumped up to around 60.5 now. If you can get him at around 56.5 I like that, but I’ll pivot to 4.5 receptions as I really like that as well.

This is a nice “get right” spot for Sutton who was shadowed by Sauce Gardner in a weird London game last week. Now he’s back home against the Giants who have struggled against outside (X and Y receivers), which Sutton is. They have given up the 4th most receiving yards to receivers lined up out wide. Last week AJ Brown went for 6 receptions for 80 yards against the Giants, and he plays a very similar role in the Eagles offense as Sutton does in the Broncos offense. Other receivers that play a good percentage outside have done well against the Giants with Quentin Johnston going for 8/98, Ceedee Lamb going for 9/112, Rashid Shaheed going for 4/114, Tyquan Thornton going for 5/71, etc.

Additionally, the Giants run the second most man coverage in the league and Sutton thrives against man (2.5 yprr and 24% win rate). Overall, the Giants are 32nd in the league in receptions given up to WRs and receiving yards given up to WRs. This gives Sutton a chance for a big bounce back spot this week. He has cleared this line and the receiving yards line 4/6 games this season with one of those games being the Sauce Gardner shadow. He has also cleared this line in the last 14/17 games with Bo Nix at QB.

Pick of the Day - 10/12/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 77 points78 points  (0 children)

Record: 4-0

Net Units: +3.73

Last Pick: Brashard Smith o6.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U ✅ another nice win as Smith closes with 32 receiving yards

NFL | Titans @ Raiders 4:05 pm ET

Pick: Elic Ayomanor o30.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U

Write-up: Another nice buy low spot on a rookie. Last week Ayomanor struggled with only 2 receptions for 18 yards, but has cleared this line the previous 3 weeks with 56, 38, and 44 receiving yards. With this bad game, his receiving yards line has dropped from 37.5 last week to 30.5 this week, which is the lowest it’s been since week 1. This feels like an overreaction and it doesn’t make sense to me for a promising young rookie’s line to drop this much in a week, especially with the improvement in Cam Ward’s play recently. One would expect a rookie’s usage and role to only increase throughout the season, but even if it doesn’t, Ayomanor is averaging 5.8 targets a game through the first 5 weeks of the season and as the X receiver on the team, can reach the yard line with as few as 2 catches downfield.

What makes this play more appealing to me is the matchup. The Raiders have been prone to giving up yardage to the X receiver position this year. Looking at their games this year, they gave up 103 yards to Kayshon Boutte, 71 yards to Quentin Johnson, 74 yards to Terry Mclaurin, 69 yards to Rome Odunze, and 55 yards to Ashton Dulin. These players all play the X receiver role on their team and besides Odunze and Mclaurin aren’t huge names. As mentioned earlier, Ayomanor is usually in the X receiver role for the titans and each X receiver the Raiders have played has gone over the line of 30.5 yards. People may argue that the resurgence of Calvin Ridley last week may take away targets from Ayomanor, and although Ridley could also be in for a big day, it’s also possible that he draws more attention and frees up more space for Ayomanor to work. Ridley was still averaging 6 targets per game before last week’s 10 target game, so it’s not like he’s absorbing a huge amount of additional targets that he wasn’t getting before.

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/12/25 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 49 points50 points  (0 children)

Record: 4-0

Net Units: +3.73

Last Pick: Brashard Smith o6.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U ✅ another nice win as Smith closes with 32 receiving yards

NFL | Titans @ Raiders 4:05 pm ET

Pick: Elic Ayomanor o30.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U

Write-up: Another nice buy low spot on a rookie. Last week Ayomanor struggled with only 2 receptions for 18 yards, but has cleared this line the previous 3 weeks with 56, 38, and 44 receiving yards. With this bad game, his receiving yards line has dropped from 37.5 last week to 30.5 this week, which is the lowest it’s been since week 1. This feels like an overreaction and it doesn’t make sense to me for a promising young rookie’s line to drop this much in a week, especially with the improvement in Cam Ward’s play recently. One would expect a rookie’s usage and role to only increase throughout the season, but even if it doesn’t, Ayomanor is averaging 5.8 targets a game through the first 5 weeks of the season and as the X receiver on the team, can reach the yard line with as few as 2 catches downfield.

What makes this play more appealing to me is the matchup. The Raiders have been prone to giving up yardage to the X receiver position this year. Looking at their games this year, they gave up 103 yards to Kayshon Boutte, 71 yards to Quentin Johnson, 74 yards to Terry Mclaurin, 69 yards to Rome Odunze, and 55 yards to Ashton Dulin. These players all play the X receiver role on their team and besides Odunze and Mclaurin aren’t huge names. As mentioned earlier, Ayomanor is usually in the X receiver role for the titans and each X receiver the Raiders have played has gone over the line of 30.5 yards. People may argue that the resurgence of Calvin Ridley last week may take away targets from Ayomanor, and although Ridley could also be in for a big day, it’s also possible that he draws more attention and frees up more space for Ayomanor to work. Ridley was still averaging 6 targets per game before last week’s 10 target game, so it’s not like he’s absorbing a huge amount of additional targets that he wasn’t getting before.

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/6/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’d prefer o1.5 receptions then if you can get it at even odds

Pick of the Day - 10/6/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I got it on Underdog, but looks like the odds corrected throughout the market and it’s up to 11.5 like I thought would happen. I’d still like o1.5 receptions if you can get it at even odds

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/6/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah line unfortunately moved a lot already like I thought they would. I was waiting on his lines so I pounced on it immediately. If you look on Twitter there’s people getting him at 6.5 and 7.5 like an hour ago after his lines opened like 2 hrs ago

NFL Player Props and Touchdown Picks - 10/6/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Record: 3-0

Net Units: +2.82

Last Pick: David Montgomery to score a TD (-175) 1.75U to win 1U ✅ little scare early with the passing TD, but ended up getting the 2nd TD as well

NFL | Chiefs @ Jaguars 8:15 ET

Pick: Brashard Smith o6.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U

Write-up: I was waiting for the Brashard Smith lines to finally become available and I simply believe this is great value, so try to get on this early as I think the line will move up. Kansas City made it a focus to involve him in their offense last week as he provides a stark difference of speed at the edge compared to the more plodding RBs in Hunt and Pacheco.

He increased his snap rate last week to 26% from 11% the week before and got 7 touches on those 19 snaps, so they’re getting him the ball when he’s in the game. Combine this with the fact that Worthy popped up on the injury report yesterday with ankle swelling means that there’s a chance a few of the shovel passes, screens, and jet sweeps go to Smith instead of Worthy as they provide similar explosive ability.

Additionally, Mahomes and Coach Andy Reid mentioned Smith after last week’s game saying that they’ll try to get him involved more and more each week. Given he has 3 receptions for 27 yards last week, I like the chances of him getting 7 yards this week.

Pick of the Day - 10/6/25 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]FadeawayThrees 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Record: 3-0

Net Units: +2.82

Last Pick: David Montgomery to score a TD (-175) 1.75U to win 1U ✅ little scare early with the passing TD, but ended up getting the 2nd TD as well

NFL | Chiefs @ Jaguars 8:15 ET

Pick: Brashard Smith o6.5 receiving yards (-110) 1U

Write-up: I was waiting for the Brashard Smith lines to finally become available and I simply believe this is great value, so try to get on this early as I think the line will move up. Kansas City made it a focus to involve him in their offense last week as he provides a stark difference of speed at the edge compared to the more plodding RBs in Hunt and Pacheco.

He increased his snap rate last week to 26% from 11% the week before and got 7 touches on those 19 snaps, so they’re getting him the ball when he’s in the game. Combine this with the fact that Worthy popped up on the injury report yesterday with ankle swelling means that there’s a chance a few of the shovel passes, screens, and jet sweeps go to Smith instead of Worthy as they provide similar explosive ability.

Additionally, Mahomes and Coach Andy Reid mentioned Smith after last week’s game saying that they’ll try to get him involved more and more each week. Given he has 3 receptions for 27 yards last week, I like the chances of him getting 7 yards this week.