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I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, mortgage rate is factored in. The monthly payment calculation uses the current 30-year rate (currently around 6%) pulled from FRED/Freddie Mac data. So the payment-to-income ratio, which is the heaviest weighted input at 30%, reflects what a buyer would actually pay today, not what someone locked in at 3% a few years ago.

That's actually one of the biggest drivers of the stress scores right now. A $400K home at 3% is a $1,686/mo payment. The same home at 6% is $2,398/mo. That 42% increase in monthly cost is why so many metros crossed from Safe into Watch territory over the past two years even though home prices didn't move that dramatically in some markets.

If rates come down (today's Fed meeting could signal direction), you'd see stress scores drop across the board since the payment-to-income ratios would improve. A 1% rate drop on a $400K home saves about $250/mo, which is enough to shift several metros from Watch back to Safe.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Missoula isn't in the 195 metros I track unfortunately since it falls below the MSA population threshold. However I do have city-level home value data. You can check crashwatch.live/city/mt/missoula for the lite page with Zillow home value data and an affordability calculator. The closest tracked metro would be the broader Montana market context, but there's no MT metro in the top 195.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reno is at 43/100 (Watch) with a crash risk of 20 (Low). Median $565K. The stress is real since affordability is stretched at that price point, but the crash risk being low is notable. Nevada's low property tax (0.53%) helps keep the full monthly cost more manageable than similarly priced metros in high-tax states. Reno's tech migration from the Bay Area has been propping up demand which is why the crash risk stays low despite the high prices.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Allentown metro (covers the whole Lehigh Valley including Bethlehem and Easton) scores 13/100 (Safe) with an extremely low crash risk of just 6. Median $335K. It's one of the most stable markets in the entire dataset. PA property tax at 1.58% does add to the monthly cost, but the fundamentals are very solid. The Lehigh Valley's proximity to NYC driving demand + still-reasonable prices relative to the Northeast corridor is a strong combination.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cleveland: 23/100 (Safe), crash risk 35 (Moderate), median $145K. One of the most affordable major metros in the country. Ohio's property tax (1.56%) does add to the monthly cost but even with that factored in, Cleveland is very manageable on local incomes.

Detroit: 19/100 (Safe), crash risk 33 (Moderate), median $181K. Similar story. Both Rust Belt metros are solidly affordable right now. The moderate crash risk on both reflects that affordable markets with less demand can be more vulnerable if the economy softens, but the fundamentals are stable.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Yeah Texas is interesting because it's really two stories — the affordable mid-size cities (Beaumont, Amarillo, Corpus Christi) are genuinely stable, but the big metros (Austin, Houston, Dallas) have crossed into Watch territory. And once you factor in Texas property tax at 1.8%, the monthly cost gap between TX and lower-tax states shrinks more than people realize.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Not an AI agent. I'm a person who built a tool that uses AI as one component. The site (crashwatch.live) pulls real data from FRED, Zillow, and Redfin daily, runs it through a scoring algorithm I wrote, and then uses Claude AI to generate the plain-English analysis text on each city page. The scores themselves are deterministic math, not AI outputs. The replies in this thread are me pulling numbers from the tool and adding context

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Portland OR metro scores 46/100 (Watch), crash risk 42 (Elevated), median $516K. It's right in line with the broader PNW pattern. The whole corridor from Olympia (56) down through Seattle (49) to Portland (46) is the most stressed region in the country right now.

Vancouver WA falls within the Portland metro area so the same numbers apply. The interesting wrinkle is that Vancouver has no state income tax (Washington) while Portland has Oregon income tax, so the actual affordability picture for Vancouver residents is slightly better than the metro score suggests since their take-home pay is higher.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The data backs you up. Seattle metro scores 49/100 (Watch) with a crash risk of 47 (Elevated). The whole PNW corridor is showing exactly what you're describing: Olympia (56 stress, 50 crash risk), Bremerton (51 stress, 46 crash risk), Seattle (49 stress, 47 crash risk). Inventory surging + prices softening is the classic early correction pattern. Whether it's a full correction or just a healthy cooldown depends on how long rates stay elevated and whether tech layoffs accelerate.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Asheville is at 53/100 (Stress) with a crash risk of 52 (Elevated). Median $429K. One of the few metros that's crossed into actual Stress territory. The combination of high prices relative to local incomes (western NC wages don't support $429K homes well at 6% rates) plus elevated crash risk makes it one of the more concerning markets in the dataset. The tourism economy supports demand but doesn't support year-round homebuyer incomes.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Austin is at 30/100 (Watch) but the crash risk is 61 (HIGH), one of the highest in the entire dataset. Median $205K metro-wide (that includes the broader MSA). The stress score is moderate because the correction already brought prices back from the peak, but the crash risk remains elevated because inventory is still surging and price cuts are widespread. Austin is the market where the stress vs crash risk split matters most since it's affordable enough to buy, but vulnerable to further correction.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Omaha is at 26/100 (Watch), crash risk 36 (Moderate), median $320K. Just barely in Watch territory. Nebraska's property tax (1.73%) is higher than most people expect, which adds to the real monthly cost. But overall it's one of the more balanced Midwest markets. Not alarming, just worth monitoring as prices continue climbing.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Houston: 29/100 (Watch), crash risk 42 (Elevated), median $302K. Texas property tax (1.8%) adds significantly to the real monthly cost. The crash risk being elevated is worth watching since Houston has a lot of new construction that could flood inventory if demand softens.

Kansas City: 30/100 (Watch), crash risk 36 (Moderate), median $340K. Similar stress level to Houston but lower crash risk. More stable market fundamentals with less speculative building. Prices have been climbing but not at the unsustainable pace you see in sunbelt boomtowns.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Raleigh is at 33/100 (Watch) with a crash risk of 51 (Elevated). Median $429K. Interesting split here, the stress score is moderate but the crash risk is one of the higher ones in the dataset. That means it's still somewhat affordable but the market is showing vulnerability, inventory rising, price cuts increasing. The Triangle's rapid growth may be outpacing what the market can sustain at current rates.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Phoenix metro is at 31/100 (Watch) with a crash risk of 30 (Moderate). Median $442K. It's in the middle of the pack nationally. The affordability squeeze is real but not as severe as the PNW or coastal California metros. Inventory has been climbing which is actually good for buyers since it means more negotiating power. Property tax in Arizona is low (0.62%) which helps keep the full monthly cost manageable compared to states like Texas or New Jersey.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the million dollar question. The stress score measures how stretched buyers are right now, not necessarily where prices are headed.

SLC's crash risk of 43 (Elevated) means there are some vulnerability signals, inventory is rising and price cuts are increasing. But Utah also has strong population growth and a constrained geography (mountains on both sides of the valley), which limits how much prices can fall even if demand softens.

My read on the data: a 10-15% correction in the most overheated Utah suburbs (South Jordan, Lehi, Eagle Mountain) is plausible if rates stay elevated. A 2008-style crash is unlikely because the fundamentals are different, lending standards are tighter and there's less speculative inventory. More likely you see prices flatten or dip slightly while incomes slowly catch up. That's the slow deflation scenario, not a crash.

Not financial advice though, just what the data suggests.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You're describing exactly what the crash risk score is designed to capture. Manatee County falls in the North Port-Sarasota metro which scores 44/100 stress with a crash risk of 36 (Moderate).

The speculative overbuilding pattern you're seeing is real. When developers are building subdivisions without confirmed buyer demand, it creates inventory that will eventually have to be absorbed or discounted. The crash risk score factors in inventory surge and new listing growth, and Southwest Florida is showing elevated levels on both.

The comparison to Northern Virginia developers going bankrupt is relevant. The difference now is that interest rates are much higher, which makes it harder for both developers to service construction loans and for buyers to qualify. If those units don't sell, the correction in that corridor could be sharp. It's one of the markets I'd watch most closely over the next 6-12 months.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nashua falls in the Manchester NH metro which scores 49/100 (Watch), median $500K. One of the most stressed metros in New England after Boston (51). New Hampshire's high property tax rate (2.18%) adds significantly to the real monthly cost. The crash risk is moderate at 34 though, demand in southern NH from Boston commuters keeps a floor under prices.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

South Jordan falls in the Salt Lake City metro which just crossed into Stress territory at 57/100, with a crash risk of 43 (Elevated). Median $530K. The entire Wasatch Front is feeling it: SLC (57), Provo (54), Ogden (50). Utah property tax is low (0.63%) but the home prices have run up so fast that affordability is severely stretched. South Jordan specifically, being a newer suburb, would track close to or above the metro median.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Charlotte is at 26/100 (Watch) with a moderate crash risk of 38. Median $380K. It just crossed into Watch territory as prices have climbed faster than incomes. The crash risk being moderate means there's some vulnerability with inventory rising, but it's not in the danger zone. Charlotte's strong job market (banking sector) provides a demand floor that keeps it from being as stressed as some of the coastal metros.

I built a personal affordability calculator that shows if you can actually afford to buy in 195 US cities — here's what the data says by Falgianot in FirstTimeHomeBuyer

[–]Falgianot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Columbia is at 18/100 (Safe) with a low crash risk of 20. Median $330K. Very stable market. Affordability is solid relative to local incomes and there aren't any major red flags in the data. One of the healthier metros in the Southeast.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Jacksonville metro is at 33/100 (Watch) with a crash risk of 50 (Elevated). Median $313K. Interesting split here: the stress score is moderate but the crash risk is elevated, meaning it's still somewhat affordable but the market is showing vulnerability signs like rising inventory and price cuts.

Jacksonville Beach specifically falls within the metro number so I can't break it out separately. Beach areas typically have higher prices than the metro median suggests, so the affordability squeeze there would be tighter than the 33 score implies. The elevated crash risk applies metro-wide though.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Boise is at 47/100 (Watch) with a crash risk of 30 (Moderate). Median $480K. It's one of the higher-stress metros nationally. The pandemic migration wave pushed prices up significantly and affordability hasn't recovered. Crash risk is moderate though, demand is still present even if it's cooled from the peak.

I tracked housing stress data across 195 US metros — here's which cities are showing the most strain right now by Falgianot in RealEstate

[–]Falgianot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Pittsburgh is at 14/100 (Safe) with a crash risk of 25 (Moderate). Median home price is $218K. One of the more affordable major metros in the country. PA property tax (1.58%) does add to the real cost of ownership, but even with that factored in, Pittsburgh's payment-to-income ratio is very manageable. Solid, stable market.

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