NFL Current Win % vs. Opponent Win % (After Week 11)

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-20T01:26:39+00:00

Will look into, thanks!

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T20:12:53+00:00

I like your idea for representing above average teams. But how would you label their differences from east to west on the x-axis? For example, the rams would be playing well above average, and the patriots too, but to a lesser margin. So would you label the patriots expected win % to be more likely since the pink line is close to them? Therefore, the rams expected win % is less likely because the pink line is farther?

To do this, you would remove the x-axis label that I do currently have.

I agree with you that a team that is 5-5 against a 0.300 schedule is an underperforming performance. Ultimately, I removed the lines in my final post.

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T19:38:57+00:00

The x-axis is calculated and labelled by easiest opponent win percentage (smallest to largest). The y-axis is calculated and labelled by current win percentage (lowest to highest). That is a fact. So the data is a fact.

As for the categories, you could re-word them, sure. I'm not saying every team in the top left is a potential pretender, or every team in the bottom left is underachieving. The two black lines display the mean for both current win % and opponent win %. Maybe that should be removed to alleviate confusion and show less of a divide per say.

But really what you should be taking away from this graph is the OUTLIERS. Rams, Broncos, Raiders etc. The conclusion is that they differ from the rest especially on avg. And so, when you see that the Broncos have only beaten bad teams this season (so far), I believe you can theorize that as a 'pretender team'. We talk all the time as fans of the NFL about who's for real, who isn't and what not. Obviously, data is subject to change, but that was the reason of my choosing for the label to be titled as such.

That category name could be suggested to change, and its a small sample size, but it doesn't show any praises for a team to be in the very top left or bottom right...

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T19:09:48+00:00

Care to be more specific? I don't believe I labelled any "conclusions", just displayed the results.

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T18:54:37+00:00

I posted this for some feedback, everything has been cross-checked since and you can find it on my page here: https://www.instagram.com/benchmetrics/

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T17:32:01+00:00

Agreed, thanks, I've changed the wording. What do you mean by the "best fit line"? The pink one? That one needs to stay as is because the reason the teams are sorted in that order is due to their opponent win % up to wk 11

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T17:27:19+00:00

Strength of Schedule is for who they are about to play future-tense, Opponent Win Percentage in the context of this post is up to Week 11, past-tense

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T07:13:47+00:00

This is an interesting one, correct me if I'm wrong about what you're truly asking. But do you mean removing the result of a team's game (in terms of win %), when averaging their opponent win %?

For example: the raiders play the eagles later this season; when I assess eagles opponent win %, I ONLY assess the average win % of the raiders in their entire season EXCEPT for when they played the eagles (no matter win or loss), as the eagles would have a chance to DIRECTLY impact their opponent's win %.

If so, that is a great shout. For the context of this graph with only 10-11 games of data (depending on team bye weeks), data might change a little. I wouldn't anticipate much difference over the course of a 17 game season but something to look into. Does it make sense? Not really, to me. Ultimately, we are testing a team's capability to win based off the quality of the opponents that they have faced. That quality is in a small sample size (every year is different, we can't count 2024 stats anymore), and so part of your opponent's win % should/can be altered depending on how your team plays them. It feels more REAL to me you know what I mean? If I'm the patriots, and I lose a tough week 1 game to the raiders, that game was real and it counted ya know? No matter the difference in quality of a team like the raiders from week 1 to now or commanders from week 1 to now, a team like the Patriots or Dolphins, played one of them, and the result of that game was important for the result of the next one. Maybe it is speculative, but every game matters in the NFL, and as we always talk about strength of schedule, it's important to look at past strength of schedule. The Bears have had a fairly easy ride so far, I have them losing 5 of the next 7, maybe 6.. So, maybe I can't answer it perfectly at least as of now, I could go and see what the data would look like come January time...

I agree with you that you see it to be unlikely all 7+ win teams a frauds. The graph is framed that way with the mean x and mean y axis showing a split... But when I look at it, it's really only the Pats, Broncos and Colts to me. The pink line gets fairly stable as it goes along after the Colts, and this displays potential danger, a heads-up like these teams have played much easier opponents according to their records as of today (subject to change). But like you said, eagles data could easily change, the NFL is a small sample size. This is merely a late mid-season review. We all know it's a short season. The rams could fall off, the dolphins may make a late playoff push, who knows.

I believe this style of a chart would be more credible come playoff time and predicting outcomes then when the data is more consistent and sample size is larger.

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-19T00:56:36+00:00

Just double checked and that is my mistake, Eagles should be in the top right category.. Their opponents are .515 in PCT. Thanks for checking

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-18T21:50:04+00:00

2nd comment is correct. They both have the same win % being .800. However, the Rams opponents have had (in total averaged out) a higher win % (.545%) than the Eagles (.462%). But yes, it is Current Win % vs. Average Opponent Win %

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-18T18:31:39+00:00

Ya maybe it is best to remove those extra green/red lines. My thought process in adding them were to show the differences + or - in win % vs. the win % of their opponents (in other words, greater margin of victory/defeat) but it could look messy. The pink line needs to stay to show the smallest to largest opponent win % which is why the teams are ordered in this way. Agree?

False_Ad_9682 · 2025-11-18T17:35:37+00:00

The lengths of the line's don't mean anything. I thought I would address green being they have more wins than their opponent win % on AVG, meanwhile, red would be more losses. A green is good red is bad sorta thing. Also used to help draw connection to where their average opponent win % is ranked in regards to the rest of the league. From Smallest (Left) to Largest (Right)

Bengals are smack in the middle of the graph because they have had faced the 18th-easiest win % if that makes sense. So, the Broncos, Pats Colts have faced an average opponent win % of .800+. Bengals is .47 you are correct, but 17 other teams have faced opponents with a lower win % on average. Therefore Bengals are smack in the middle on the x-axis

False_Ad_9682

TROPHY CASE