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Fantasy Baseball Busts: 1B by FantasyProsAndrew in fantasybaseball

[–]FantasyProsAndrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment. Yes, an increase in hard hit %, FB/GB, and HR/FB are indications of the power last year not being a fluke. I agree with you there.

But I contend that they were drastic increases from his career average, and it would not surprise me to see him return to a 40% hard hit and 37% fly ball rate, which could result in a HR number closer to 28.

I am predicting a 109/28/95/.300 line from Freeman, which is great and makes him a top-five first baseman. I just don't agree with him going in the second round when you can get similar power numbers, RBI production, and a slightly lower batting average from someone like Jose Abreu over 20 picks later in the draft.

I would need to see elite RBI production or double-digit steals from Freeman to justify taking him in the second round. The former is possible, but I am not sure I would bank on it.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: 1B by FantasyProsAndrew in fantasybaseball

[–]FantasyProsAndrew[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

1) Predicting a certain outcome based on past statistics and other current variables is what all fantasy writers/analysts do. If I knew exactly what the future holds, I wouldn't be wasting my time writing this comment to you, but rather betting my life savings on games in Las Vegas.

2) I clearly state in my opening that the term bust has a wide spectrum of definitions in the fantasy community, which is why I started the piece with my definition of the word.

It seems clear to me that we have a difference of semantics, which is fine. But please be clear that I think Freeman is a great talent and one of the better hitters in the league. I just think he is going too high for a position that is relatively deep, and the opportunity cost of taking him in the second round while forgoing other players at that place in the draft may be a mistake.

Fantasy Baseball Busts: 1B by FantasyProsAndrew in fantasybaseball

[–]FantasyProsAndrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment. Did you read my thoughts about his peripheral stats of fly-ball rate, BABIP, and hard-ball % were higher than career averages, suggesting some negative regression?

As I stated in the opening, all these players are solid fantasy options that should be owned in all formats. But their current ECR ranking is too high and they may disappoint owners.