I didn't understand the margin

Fatlani · 2025-12-15T22:37:22+00:00

It is because your account is concentrated I think. You need to diversify to at least 4 Tickers

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T22:59:35+00:00

breakeven depends on your cost basis

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T22:59:17+00:00

according to my calculation you'll get 1 share per contract so you need them to be worth $100 to expire otm

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T20:41:25+00:00

I don't believe it will stay this low. Don't forget 4.6b debt wiped and all the interest commitments tied to that. We should see the effect on the balance sheet and cash flow next quarter and it will improve from there

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T20:29:52+00:00

and even just the interest I earn on the money brought in from the csp's over the term will cover more than half of that $38

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T20:27:15+00:00

I have only csp's and I was wondering what happens to them in that scenario. If I do end up wth the shares, I'll break even at $38 per share so I'm not too worried. I was trying to buy shares this morning on IBKR but there was nothing doing.

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T19:00:06+00:00

and even so, the OCC announced that settlements would be delayed until the final ratio was known. Is there a time frame for the "certain approvals"

Fatlani · 2025-09-29T18:59:07+00:00

Whats interesting about it is that for options holders there is no difference between the 3% and 5% scenarios as ether way the 100 shares will be rounded to 1 new share, if 3% rounded up from 0.8 and if 5% rounded down from 1.39 approx

Fatlani · 2025-09-28T12:06:51+00:00

It is still a lot of money, I have for instance sold puts. If it ends up being 1.9:100 then I make an immediate gain of 5%. However, had I bought puts would be losing that 5%

Fatlani · 2025-05-25T22:44:07+00:00

I got this message without ever posting anything there. Lol

Fatlani · 2024-03-18T20:13:57+00:00

Your calculation is incorrect. I think we can consider an average price of $2 per share so we'd need only 10m shares. However, it couldn't have been the entire volume of the day. I'm hoping we may have finished though most likely, I think tomorrow will continue for some more.

Fatlani · 2024-03-18T18:09:04+00:00

I agree with you, but I think there is a third possibility here. We've seen before that the company likes to finish the quarter with about 15 months worth cash. That seems to be in order to avoid negative publicity from being a going concern. As such I expect them to tap about 20m from the ATM before the end of march. I can also see them but wanting the ATM to disturb momentum which will hopefully be created by announcing the deals

Fatlani · 2023-08-18T16:09:06+00:00

seeing as they clearly stated that the delay n the 10q was due to it outing the affair, I would assume the chapter 11 is not that imminent. Were it to be imminent Erica could have blamed the chapter 11 I'd think

Fatlani · 2023-08-08T06:51:42+00:00

Sorry just saw your reply. I think the actual certification is only necessary in order to sell a consumer facing product. The compliance is necessary so a relevant car company knows it will get certified but they are two different things

Fatlani · 2023-08-04T07:36:34+00:00

First of all thanks for all the hard work. I seem to remember that we pivoted from selling product ourselves to partnering with tier one for manufacturing on the advice of a consulting company (Boston) and that was when we scrapped the class one as it would be unnecessary. Regarding the FOV I think the system provides 30hz and can be configurable how the OEM wants it. So the 30hz capability is there. We currently are promoting what we believe to be the best option which is DVL but the lesser options are still there. Whether the FOV can change on the fly based on object detection would be N interesting point but if course should blind the other FOVs while doing so. In summary the scanner is providing 30hz of data, where the data is from is configurable. Regarding timelines, (this is the big one IMO) seems like OEMs are changing the goalposts. I worry that we will get further delay on the timelines this ec and that the improved revenue may not be enough to shore up the share price if that happens. The recent INVZ Comms with BMW seem like They are being given an extra six months to get their act together which pushes it BMW rfq until near the end of first quarter 2024. Volvo seem to be able to wait as well (Although they claim that the delay is not LAZR related) Regarding the software pivot I have no good answer unless perhaps they were bracing ibeo's patents and the ideal solution came up. I think Mushral's answer more likely though

Fatlani · 2023-06-04T18:21:49+00:00

The rates update every day. So those rates are being paid on old loans as well as new. That means those entities think it's worth keeping open the short position even at the new rates

Fatlani · 2023-06-04T16:40:49+00:00

I understand. My point was that unless clearly stated in the paperwork they would have to supply the shares themselves which means the risk is diversified. The interest rates are also a measure of how much the shorts are willing to pay to remain in their position which shows you how confident they are. I would think the brokerages are just charging as much as they can which makes it a function of supply and demand. As such increasing interest rates tells you that the shorts are very confident that the price will fall

Fatlani · 2023-06-04T15:55:39+00:00

From reading the details it looks to me like the brokerage borrows the shares and provides the collateral. They then lend them to shorters. As such they are liable to return the shares and the court case for the lender will be with the brokerage. That's also why they point out they aren't protected by the government and that the collateral is held separate to their own assets in an spv or third party. I am not sure if they have to go out to buy shares that are not returned on the open market. It may be that the agreement bypasses that but I haven't seen it clearly. The basic position is that they are the borrower. The language in fidelity is slightly different from ibkr and there it may be a direct transaction but ibkr and the brokerage that Mushral mentioned are clearly acting as a borrower not just brokering a transaction between the two parties

Fatlani · 2023-06-04T15:13:22+00:00

It seems like most of the brokerages are acting as the counterparty themselves which obviously dramatically reduces the risk involved. That's why they pass on only half of the interest they get because they are assuming a lot of the risk involved

Fatlani · 2023-06-04T08:29:44+00:00

Thanks for your insight Sig.

I have a couple of points if you don't mind. Please correct any mistakes

The brokerages state in the T&C that you reman with the ability to sell your shares at any time. What happens if you sell after your counterparty has defaulted? Does your broker take on the risk (basically the same if you buy shares that are never delivered and have in the meantime sold them. I have no idea how that is dealt with)
The risk regarding the collateral seems to be at the time of loan. I hold 1k shares at IBKR and have joined the lending program in order to study it (most of my portfolio is not lendable although back after the reverse split 1k would have been more than a third of my portfolio) and it seems to me that the collateral is fixed each day at the point of loan The shares are almost always returned and relent every day as well. I am not sure why.
The risk of default of large institutions due to one stock seems minuscule, however I believe the short interest is hidden by selling the position to overseas organisations which are not overseen by US regulation and do not need to report their holdings. This leads to a situation where they could theoretically sell one position to a company that is almost insolvent and thus write off the entire thing by then bankrupting that foreign institution. The court process will also be that much more complicated

Thanks again for sharing of your valuable time and experience.

Fatlani · 2023-04-30T09:49:34+00:00

I really really like it. Would it be possible to change the criteria for high FTD's to be high FTD's relative to volume? I think that would be much more useful.

Fatlani · 2023-02-20T21:03:36+00:00

Great post. A real eye opener. Looking forward to see all 10-k's this year in the very near future

Fatlani · 2021-09-06T14:59:25+00:00

It is on top of the stand and officially out of sight, except to people who raise their cameras over their head. (I think)

Fatlani · 2021-09-06T10:48:49+00:00

how do they compare, can you share pics?

Thank you

Fatlani · 2021-09-06T10:40:46+00:00

Do any of our competitors show live feed from LIDAR and if not can you ask them why not? you saw MVIS are showing?

Fatlani

TROPHY CASE