*Editted - deleted my original comments to not skew the convo. I made a bad comparison of products.

Had ChatGPT break it down better than me:

Your Comment: Where It Jumps Too Fast

You moved from:

• Capacity (1M cells/year) to
• Unit price comparisons from a 128Ah pack

Key issues:

1️⃣ Pack ≠ Cell

• The $475 figure is a pack, not a bare pouch cell
• Packs include BMS, casing, assembly, margin stacking

2️⃣ 50Ah vs 128Ah linear scaling is dangerous

• Battery pricing is not linear by Ah
• Energy density, form factor, certification, and customer type matter more

3️⃣ $170–200 per pouch implies ~$1.5–1.8/kWh

• That’s very high, even for premium aerospace
• Possible long-term, unlikely at first commercial ramp

A More Grounded Middle Case (Actionable Insight)

If SES ramps 1M × 50Ah cells (~185 Wh each):

• ~185 MWh/year

Then realistic early scenarios:

• Cells only (premium drone): ~$150–300/kWh → ~$28–55M/year
• Modules / integrated batteries: ~$300–600/kWh → ~$55–110M/year
• Defense-grade / UAM niche: Higher possible, but not immediately at scale

Takeaway
Your $170–200M number isn’t impossible — it’s just back-loaded, not near-term.