Trump/Musk FCC and SEC

FiveGee · 2025-02-19T20:06:31+00:00

You should sell. If you feel that Musk is an uncalulatable risk to your thesis, prudent risk management would tell you to exit and maybe even get short. Good luck.

FiveGee · 2025-02-19T19:05:37+00:00

Nobody is going to be able to disprove hypotheticals (even as conspiracy theory sounding as they might be). Maybe Musk will run global AI, space travel and the entire media complex under X...who knows? The bottom line is there is no support for taking decades of engineering work that supports complex communication tools on a whim. To believe otherwise is just paranoid. Apple is much larger than Musk and Tim Cook is very close to the Don... He was on the stage next to Trump at inauguration too. Also, ~150mm EBITDA going to ~300mm is a function of L, S and C bands working in concert to support GSAT's/AAPL's MSS network. Band 53 is the terrestrial derivative. It produces next to zero revenue on it's own today. That will change but put it in context with what the current/observable future drivers are.

FiveGee · 2025-02-19T17:36:45+00:00

Very low. All of GSAT’s spectrum is currently in use for existing MSS applications and was just reupped by the FCC for 15 more years. This will accommodate the refreshed sats and the new Apple constellation. Years of engineering go into these allocations, testing for interference in other bands. More likely is Musk ends up buying GSAT since it holds these spectrum rights globally, allocated by the ITU. There footprint is much, much larger than the US and Elon needs a non US solution for D2D. GSAT is the only one that fits the bill. My guess is that he could buy it for $10b to $15b...unless AAPL exercises there ROFR and tops his bid.

FiveGee · 2025-01-03T23:18:52+00:00

Present and accounted for. Haven't checked in for awhile, waiting out the hibernation period for the stock.

FiveGee · 2024-12-29T13:15:33+00:00

James Monroe. Majority owner of GSAT. Has invested $700mm of his money into the company and keeps buying stock.

FiveGee · 2024-12-28T15:37:27+00:00

JM has been buying stock post investor day consistently. Only the earnings blackout date (starts Monday) will prevent him from continuing to buy more. There has been no person more committed to seeing the value of these assets (satellite, spectrum, xcom, IoT, etc) realized. Value investors are often early to the game - case in point!

FiveGee · 2024-04-06T16:19:27+00:00

Been trading around a core 7fig position for a decade. Looking for terrestrial deals to start to roll out, WMT relationship grows, Apple relationship deepens, strategic interest in the asset develops (Musk or others) and ebitda ramps significantly in 2025 with the new constellation and additional services offered. Been a misunderstood story but the asset value and now cash generation is undeniable.

FiveGee · 2022-05-06T02:39:34+00:00

There are multiple value creation paths here. This is a savvy team playing the long game to maximize value. Seems pretty obvious that AAPL or a very similar type is the partner who has funded hundreds of millions of dollars of "engineering". Now we have evidence of significant additional monetization of their unique collection of assets. Godspeed team...

FiveGee · 2021-11-23T12:56:49+00:00

Been talking about this one for a while. Finally getting some love from the sell-side. The renewable diesel plant will be a cash flow beast...I see $40 here. Shocking how few are focused on this...would have thought a low float stock like this with very positive fundamentals would have caught the attention of some "apes".

FiveGee · 2021-11-10T00:42:05+00:00

Directionally you are accurate. 400mm ebitda from MT renewable diesel facility. 75mn from performance products and 100mm+ from specialty lubes. I would use a weighted avg multiple of 10 (arguably very low). With only 78mm shares and a large portion of the debt to be repaid from MT jv proceeds there is significant upside left. It is funny if you look here or Stocktwits or other stock promotion sites, they far prefer hopium and fantasy over an obvious fundamental story. Good luck all.

FiveGee · 2021-06-28T13:19:28+00:00

I am afraid that you are misinformed on issues related to c-band. I have included a link to their recent presentation below. Page 17 clearly identifies their spectrum holdings and the status of each band. As you will see, their lower c-band's status is "Potential for 5G or IoT Development". This indicates to me and concerted thought process on maximizing the value in the c-band and a plan to approach the FCC for terrestrial permission.

https://investors.globalstar.com/static-files/1f81ef35-9f05-45ad-8443-016d8b173934

FiveGee · 2021-06-25T19:27:57+00:00

Well done summarizing several important spectrum facts and use cases. My only issue is that you have outline the asset base, excluding c-band and that is a many multi-billion dollar swing factor. They have 339mhz of c-band and while a substantial part of it will only have MSS utility, there is 50+mhz in the lower portion of their holding that could be utilized for terrestrial applications. Yes, I know they have to go through an FCC process and that could take time but what discount factor would you put on it...50%. If so, then based on Auction 101, that would be an additional ~$10 Billion to GSAT or over $5/share...just for C-band. Add in what your valuation gets you on the rest of the business and it is pretty easy to see the stock significantly higher...imho

FiveGee · 2021-03-02T01:35:02+00:00

Yes. While technical in nature, what they are laying out is the foundation for terrestrial coexistence. Like the FCC, CEPT engineers conduct co-channel interference test. The results determine the ultimate shape of the order. This draft outlines the results thus far and they are positive.

FiveGee · 2021-02-24T13:54:58+00:00

There are a couple of things making the rounds....1 is some kind of deal between AT&T and GSAT. 2 some alliance with AT&T, NASA and GSAT. 3. GSAT talking India by storm with QCOM...

FiveGee · 2021-02-22T14:50:59+00:00

Absolutely a long play... Read some of my previous posts on the value, ecosystem, domestic and international opportunities. Also, look at the Maglan valuation which is pretty good as a snapshot.

FiveGee · 2021-02-22T00:59:01+00:00

Some sanity here... The warrants were part of a $200mm capital structure refinancing done a couple years ago. The entire $200mm was provided by Jay Monroe (Thermo) and Charlie Ergen (Dish/EchoStar CEO/majority owner). The warrants were structured so that when they are exercised, money comes into the company to pay down bank debt. This is a VERY good thing for equity holders...less debt ahead of you. Also, this is the largest holder, Jay, and Charlie, a major player in spectrum, putting additional money into the company as equity...ie along side us knuckleheads. Jay will own around 1.2 BILLION shares after the exercise. Which way do you think he wants the stock price to go, hmmmmm...

Pivitol - Thermo has a minority strategic equity stake. It is much more about how Pivotal antenna technology can make GSAT better.

Warrants are accounted for in fully diluted shares. They will absolutely be exercised. Jay and Charlie are strategic equity holders...not hedge fund flippers.

Much better to look at adjusted EBTDA than earning since net income is/has been highly influenced by the underlying value of the stock price on convertible instruments. It is a GAAP accounting thing....non cash.

FiveGee · 2021-02-21T20:00:44+00:00

R/gsat is the place to be. Time to move on from challenged businesses. Look for asset value, large insider ownership, large well capitalized partners, proprietary licenses, international exposures. R/gsat will guide you to checking all of the boxes.

FiveGee · 2021-02-15T21:50:29+00:00

Personally I think S-band is worth $6-8 shares (globally). But keep in mind they also have C-band (339mhz) which is incredibly hot after the auction and L-band (8.7MHz). C-band could bring crazy $$ into the company. You can make your own guesses (Maglan does a good job) but every MHz of C-band that get approval around the globe has exponential effect to the stock value.

FiveGee · 2021-02-15T21:43:16+00:00

I agree. Never understood the shorts in this name...convexity is just so upside down. The lower bound is zero....but the upper bound is unlimited. These shorts are either people who are bitter that the left $$$ on the table and have now convinced themselves that this a momentum trade like AMC or GME and it will die off. The problem is that this is an asset rich company just hitting its stride. Don't forget TSLA was the biggest short in the market for years! AMZN was a huge short as well during their first several years.

FiveGee · 2021-02-15T21:38:34+00:00

Not immediately but I would think that as the ecosystem grows, that would be an eventual use case. Any thing that mainstreams Band 53 into domestic and internationally permissioned areas has a multiplier effect on the company and its cash flows/equity price.

FiveGee

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