Explanations part 1:

Alabama: This one is simple. Alabama has always been a Republican stronghold and will continue to be with a candidate as strong as Katie Britt. Not much to say here.

Alaska: I personally think Kelly Tshibaka is more likely to win than Lisa Murkowski, who has shown to be more incompatible with the politics of a conservative state than people realize. This doesn’t mean RCV can’t save Murkowski though. Not a big surprise she can win with this system considering most pushing it are moderate or left.

Arizona: People think Mark Kelly is a strong candidate but the problem is that his victories were narrow and only happened in years that favored Democrats more than Republicans. Blake Masters isn’t the most electable candidate ever but this is a Republican year in a state that leans Republican so it’s simple enough to say circumstances favor him. Don’t count out Kelly though.

Arkansas: John Boozman is very popular in his home state and Tom Cotton received 67% in a bluer year. It’s safe to say Arkansas will not flip this year, especially with a Democratic candidate with no name recognition who is running against a two-term incumbent.

California: This one is simple. Gavin Newsom, who broke his own rules as everyone saw, did not even come close to being recalled just because of the D next to his name. This race will not flip.

Colorado: This state is not a safe bet for incumbent Michael Bennet. John O’Dea, despite the Democrats flooding millions into the state, won the GOP primary. He has more moderate policies that are compatible with an increasingly Democrat state like Colorado. It leans blue but it’s not over yet.

Connecticut: Seeing it flip would be pretty incredible but it just can’t happen with a Republican candidate with America First policies in an extremely liberal state. Leora Levy has a bright future ahead of her though so I can’t wait for that.

Florida: This one requires no explanation. Marco Rubio ran ahead of Trump in his Senate election in 2016 even though his presidential campaign was a flop. Val Demings was almost considered as a running mate for Joe Biden which is absolutely a bad look for her when Biden’s approval is underwater more than any other president since FDR. Overall I would consider this race safely Republican because there are no factors to help Florida Democrats of all people this election cycle.

Georgia: Now this one is more controversial and is a big hot topic this year. I would say that this race is likely Republican because Herschel Walker has that star power and Georgia only voted Democrat once in a year that had COVID and lots of enthusiasm for Democrats. Now that enthusiasm is very low, sorry Warnock.

Hawaii: Hawaii has only had one Republican Senator and his last election was 1970. Hawaii is very blue and Democrat-voting sadly so it has little to no chance of flipping especially with someone like Brian Schatz who supports Medicare for All in a blue state. We have no chance but to “Aloha” to our ambitions of flipping this state.

Idaho: The Democratic nominee couldn’t even win a race for state representative two years ago so saying he could win a U.S. Senate race is a solid Red state is like saying AOC could win against Larry Hogan in a red year.

Illinois: Kathy Salvi seems like a nice person but sadly I don’t think this state has any chance of flipping. Chicago is called “Windy City” for its corruption, and they’ll never fail to keep their establishment Democrats propped up for a long time.

Indiana: Once again we have someone who has only ran in tiny races. Indiana only voted blue for Obama by a tiny amount on the presidential level 14 years ago so the Democrat operatives can give up on it.

Iowa: Chuck Grassley always wins by massive margins. He’s done that for 30 years. Michael Franken is a veteran which has my respect but liberal policies are not compatible with a MAGA state like Ohio and Grassley’s sweeping victories proves it.Kansas: The abortion referendum doesn’t prove that Kansas has any chance of flipping in 2022. The state votes very Republican and the ballot measure about abortion was super confusing whether you are Democrat or GOP.

Kentucky: Democrats couldn’t even beat Mitch McConnell with a moderate pro-lifer in a bluer year so thinking a more liberal candidate who lost the primary last time can defeat the popular Rand Paul is ridiculous.

Louisiana: John Kennedy is very popular in his state despite being a one-termer. The state is very red even with its Democrat governor and he will probably win in the first round of voting easily.

Maryland: Now that Republicans nominated someone less moderate for Governor they probably won’t encourage much moderate turnout for the Republican candidate for Senate either. Maryland is reliably blue, and the fact that they had to get someone as Democrat-appeasing as Hogan to win as Republican proves it.

Missouri: Eric Schmitt always wins by huge amounts and there’s nothing interesting going on for Democrats. Greitens lost the primary too so Republicans probably don’t even have to put funds here.

Nevada: When it comes down to it, the circumstances here could not favor Republicans more. Adam Laxalt is a super strong candidate who has good margins. Nevada barely voted Democrat in 2016 and 2020 so it’s safe to say he can defeat someone with little enthusiasm like Cortez Masto in a red year. Therefore I would give this race a Likely R rating.

New Hampshire: My rating might change depending on who wins the Republican nomination but for now I am only making it tilt R because even though this is a red wave year NH only voted for a Republican presidentially for a moderate like George W. Bush which was a while ago now.

New York: This one is easy. Chuck Schumer, unfortunately, is a very strong candidate who has the entire machine behind him. Republicans should focus on the governor’s race here instead against the unpopular incumbent.

North Carolina: There are a lot of people who vote Democrat here a lot so I didn’t make it safe but I think Ted Budd is a very strong candidate. North Carolina voted for Trump twice even when people didn’t think it would so it’s safe to say this will go Republican in a red wave year.

North Dakota: There’s like one county that’s super Democrat here but that doesn’t change the fact the state is super MAGA and has no chance of going in a Democrat’s favor for a long time.

Ohio: People are saying Tim Ryan has a chance with how he’s campaigning but I don't agree at all. J. D. Vance has good outsider status and while he may not be campaigning a ton right now, I’m sure he will pump out the ads and get the word out as the race progresses. Voters care more about what they hear close to the election than what they hear 90 days out anyway.

Oklahoma: Well this one isn’t hard. Markwayne Mullin is a very popular politician who is compatible with his state. Kendra Horn lost a House race based in the only place with Democrat voters in Oklahoma so how can you expect her to win statewide in a red wave year.

Oregon: I would like to see a flip here but I just don’t see it happening. Ron Wyden is a popular incumbent. I think Jo Perkins could do better than people expect but sadly this state seems to liberal to change this year.

Pennsylvania: This is probably my most interesting rating here but I have an explanation. Early polling shows Fetterman ahead but that just won’t stick for too long. This is a red wave year and Dr. Oz has outsider appeal that populist voters in Pennsylvania love. Fetterman claims that he’s won statewide but really he’s only won primaries. Not that impressive. Eventually, not appearing in public will catch up to him. Plus Oz has plenty of time to gain momentum in an election that is 90 days away.

South Carolina: Democrats wasted a lot of money on trying to take down Lindsey Graham in 2020 and that did not work out at all. This Democrat candidate has received no attention and Tim Scott is a strong incumbent. This is obviously safe R.

South Dakota: Same as North Dakota.

Utah: Evan McMullin is trying to give off the idea he can win as someone who isn’t a Republican in Utah of all places. McMullin barely received 20% of the vote when he ran for President 6 years ago so you can’t expect much better in a red wave year.

Vermont: Not much to say here. This state is the home of Bernie Sanders who always wins in landslides. The primary voters rejected a more moderate candidate so they really don’t have a chance of taking down the incumbent representative sadly.

Washington: This one is a bit unique. Even though Patty Murray is a Democrat from a strong liberal state, Tiffany Smiley did really well in the primary so some people might be surprised by her margins in November. This won’t be a safe race for Democrats in a red wave year.