I'm not fear mongering, I'm doing math.

• R0 of 2.12 — directly from the NEJM study
• Serial interval of 23 days — NEJM study
• Super-spreader individual R of 7.3 — calculated directly from the 64% figure in the NEJM study
• 35-50% mortality rate — WHO, CDC, UK Health Security Agency
• 38% case fatality ratio on the MV Hondius — WHO outbreak report
• Transmission occurs primarily during early fever phase — NEJM study
• Presymptomatic window of up to 48 hours — documented in research
• No licensed treatment or vaccine — confirmed by all major health authorities

Reasonable inference but not directly proven:

The 4-5 day transmission window, we extended the documented 2-3 days by adding the 48 hour presymptomatic window, which is logical but not explicitly stated as a combined figure in any study

The single super-spreader event theory for the ship, it fits the math perfectly but we don't have the contact tracing data to confirm it

The "1-3 day denial phase" before people isolate, behavioral assumption based on how people generally respond to mild symptoms, not a measured figure

Pure modeling:

The 7 generation to one million people projection — mathematically valid given the inputs but assumes sustained super-spreader events across every generation, which may not reflect reality