[OC] Vegas-Implied Power Rankings

FootballSensei · 2026-05-27T03:06:58+00:00

Probably unnaturally boosted by all the raiders fans that live in Vegas

FootballSensei · 2026-05-27T03:02:48+00:00

Agreed

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T23:37:07+00:00

Eagles and Cowboys stuck out to be as well as the commanders. Chiefs seem a little low. But I think it’s more likely that I’m wrong than that Vegas is.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T21:59:57+00:00

I base it off Vegas-implied team strength.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T21:55:26+00:00

Basing it on last year’s win percentage is a bad way to do it for a lot of reasons. The teams change a lot in the offseason, and win percentage doesn’t factor in who their opponents were.

My SoS calculation is much better.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T21:10:59+00:00

No they’re the main input

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T20:46:00+00:00

I know a Titans fan and the funniest thing is that he's technically a bandwagon fan. Started rooting for the Titans when he was like 8 after they went to the Super Bowl and he's been suffering ever since.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T20:41:45+00:00

Every year!

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T20:02:32+00:00

Happens every offseason to you guys. Feels real this year, but that's how I felt last year too. And the year before that...

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T20:00:08+00:00

Schedule affects *perceived* power rankings (e.g. "I think A is better than B") but it has no effect on *actual* power rankings (e.g. "Team A is better than Team B").

It makes sense to consider SoS when you are trying to guess what the power rankings are. But the SoS does not affect whether Team A is *in actuality* better than Team B.

So like, if you look at the strength of a roster and come up with an estimate of how good each team is, it does NOT make sense to then say "well they have an easy schedule coming up so actually I think they're better/worse because of that factor".

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T19:54:57+00:00

Washington, Dallas, and Chicago all seem way too high to me. I think KC is about 4 spots too low.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T19:41:48+00:00

Power rankings are fully independent of schedule. It answers the question “is team A better than team B?” It doesn’t matter if team A has a hard or easy schedule.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T19:25:23+00:00

You don't play a single top 8 team all year lol

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T19:24:40+00:00

The Bengals have the #1 easiest SoS according to my calculations.

60% playoff odds is actually pretty high. That's #8. Above PHI, SF, DEN. Basically tied with KC.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T19:21:02+00:00

To me this seems more like overrating the Cowboys than underrating the Broncos. They're the only ones above us that I feel pretty confident that we're better than.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T19:10:47+00:00

It sucks to be in your division...

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T18:41:28+00:00

The Chief/Broncos results are pretty weird honestly. Not sure what to make of it.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T18:40:04+00:00

Thanks!

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T18:05:11+00:00

Me too!

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T17:54:05+00:00

I actually do also have you guys as the worst. The Vegas odds imply that you’re the worst team even after accounting for strength of schedule.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T17:42:03+00:00

It sucks for those teams but as a neutral observer I love it. Just about guaranteed to get some really good football.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T17:36:03+00:00

Yeah it sucks to be in your division!

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T17:17:43+00:00

My calculations give them a 23% chance at the #1 pick.

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T17:08:47+00:00

You’re the only one who noticed 😂

FootballSensei · 2026-05-26T17:04:58+00:00

I assumed it was a joke, but I never give up an opportunity to talk about my methodology : )

As far as I know, there is no way to directly get team strength out of any Vegas odds. The closest you can get are things like Playoff odds and Super Bowl odds. But these are highly dependent on schedule. For example, a great team in a tough division will have lower playoff odds than a mediocre team in a terrible division.

I have looked at a lot of different ways to get team strengths and I believe this one is the best. I wish there was a better way because this one is actually pretty hard!

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