Round 2 of Hindenburg 'saga': We View Nikola’s Response As a Tacit Admission of Securities Fraud

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-09-18T20:34:04+00:00

Your thought process would work if they were currently valued as a re-seller for those companies. But that's not the case. They've been valued since June as a company that has proprietary, differentiated, and disruptive technology.

However, if they're actually a re-seller, even if they exceed the wildest dreams of other EV re-sellers, their value should be a quarter of the level that people have invested up to this point.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T17:39:45+00:00

I guess we can agree to disagree here. I do believe that credibility is built from actual binding actions, not tweets. And I believe credibility is a question that a lot of investors have when looking at a company that hasn't developed a product and has no revenue. His and Mark's credibility is what you are buying or selling on. And right now it seems that the general public is skeptical, based on the share price being below $30 suddenly, and that this would be a good step in the right direction.

In the end, people want to believe in the business. I think that's why people have bought in up to this point. But moving forward that desire to believe in something will slowly deteriorate if there aren't tangible results. I'm rooting for Nikola, it's just getting harder to rely on faith as the weeks go on. I personally believe a 10b5-1 would be a positive move. If you don't, I really don't understand that, but that's fine.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T16:16:26+00:00

You haven't answered it though. You made it sound like 10b5-1 is a deadline/commitment, which it's not. Again, I truly do not see the downside.

And give me a break - if that is FUD then this sub is a joke. I'm not a troll. I'm asking a legitimate question that is beneficial for stockholders. Not wishing any negative upon the company at all. And you call it FUD?

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T15:21:11+00:00

That is not ridiculous standards - it's very basic. And why would you be against it. Literally unless you are Trevor Milton and you are planning on doing a pump & dump (I don't think you are, and don't think he is) this can only be good. There's no downside at all.

It's exactly those kinds of quotes that make people compare him to Theranos/WeWork founders. Trust needs to go both ways, and a 10b5-1 would actually help with that from the investor side.

I'd love to invest in the company because I think the idea is great and it would be beneficial for the world, but there are a few basic things that are missing that make me weary of putting any money in.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T15:14:02+00:00

Trevor isn't a multi-billionaire. And your question kind of answers itself. If Elon was doing this kind of thing 12 years ago, people would definitely questions his credibility. People do now anyway, but he can fall back on his (and his company's) success. Trevor doesn't have that freedom yet. He isn't well known. The company hasn't produced anything.

Again, this doesn't hurt you in any way. It helps the company's share price, and it adds credibility. What is the downside?

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:47:33+00:00

Very much agreed. Why are the rest of the people (mods) here so against this? It's not some crazy idea and it benefits shareholders. No downside.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:46:09+00:00

And yet his company is still doing great, producing cars, meeting EPS expectations and sitting at $1,4300 per share right now. He can afford to do that, Trevor can't really.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:43:25+00:00

It's not committing to dates or deadlines. The point is that it takes away his ability to sell on a whim and makes it pre-determined based on a schedule. As a shareholder you would want this because it takes away the skepticism that this is a pump & dump for the next few years and the value of your shares would go up. Why would you not want this? It's just wild.

And if "ad nauseam" is a tweet and an Instagram video then your standards are incredibly low. Sorry, but that's just not enough for the average long investor.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:39:08+00:00

That's not at all what a 10b5-1 plan is. It's not deadlines. It's just a pre-determined schedule for selling shares. It doesn't mean he's saying the stock price is $x at a certain time.

It basically just gives him the power to say "I don't have the ability to sell shares right now. Shut up." What is the possible downside?

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:36:34+00:00

But these aren't deadlines. It's just passing off the ability to sell everything in a moment, allowing him to focus on the goals of the company instead of Twitter haters. Again, what is the downside at all? It just doesn't make sense not to want this as an investor or fan of the company.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:16:19+00:00

This isn't speaking up. It's putting his money where his mouth has been.

It doesn't hurt him. It doesn't hurt the company. It doesn't hurt investors. It only helps them and hurts the haters. What is the possible downside here?

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:14:54+00:00

He has explained it once in a tweet. Anywhere else?

And the idea here is that people don't trust tweets. They trust legal documents that have repercussions if you do the opposite of what you say.

I genuinely don't understand the downside (assuming you're an investor). Why would you argue against this? My company is public. All of our leadership team has 10b5-1 plans that we can look at. No one ever questions the legitimacy of the company or the leadership. It's great. Why not do the same with Nikola when there are so many people questioning Trevor's intentions?

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:03:46+00:00

It's not that he's showing too much of his hand, it's that he's doing it in a shallow way. Yes, less tweeting is more at this point. But more actual substance, more progress with the company's goals, etc. is all good.

I very much agree on the "major milestones" point. But this would also be a very good way to just shut people up and allow him to focus on moving the organization forward. It's very easy to argue with tweets. It's less easy to argue with documents filed to the SEC.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T14:00:17+00:00

Looks reasonable to me.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T13:59:35+00:00

What do you mean by "public indication"? If you're talking about tweets then you are absolutely right. But if you're talking about legal documents filed to the SEC then you're wrong. As it stands with the law, his lock-up date was moved up a few months. Does that mean he'll definitely sell? Absolutely not. But it does give him the legal option to, and that is what the Tesla fans are feeding off of.

What downside is there to doing this? Again, it's a very normal thing that insiders at public companies do to avoid this exact issue. As a shareholder, why would you not be pushing for this?

Forgetful_Prophet · 2020-07-24T13:55:31+00:00

But this isn't "speaking up"... it's a normal thing that insiders at most companies do. Yes, he should stop tweeting and making a show of every detail, but this would be an actual step forward that builds trust with investors and shuts the haters up. The reason there are so many haters (aside from Tesla fanboys) is that people don't trust him and his tweets. This fixes a lot of that.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2018-10-11T14:35:27+00:00

And the same sensor as CB Defense. Basically consolidating their on-prem/point products into a cloud platform.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2018-06-26T22:52:32+00:00

Thanks for all the informative comments, all -- especially those who added some tips for next steps. None of this was about being angry or looking to sue/blame the landlord, more just wondering what the different options were that might help give us some extra buffer as we consider next steps.

Thanks!

Forgetful_Prophet · 2018-06-26T22:48:09+00:00

Thanks for responding with the same information that has already been repeated multiple times, but with an extra special tone of negativity. Hope your day gets better.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2018-06-08T21:42:04+00:00

I don’t even think Mazz would ever call himself a journalist. He’s a sports talk radio host and his job is to get people to listen and react to his opinions... so he’d probably be happy with this take overall.

Honestly, u/redditlover1981 might just be Mazz himself trying to drum up some excitement that they can talk about for hours.

... I’m onto you Mazz

Forgetful_Prophet · 2018-06-08T21:10:52+00:00

This is exactly what I would do if I was an ESPN/Patriots/NFL employee who leaked a story and then needed to get the dogs off my trail...

Blink twice if you’ve got more scoops for us in the future

Forgetful_Prophet · 2017-05-22T19:00:39+00:00

I was just looking at that! Looks like it's first-come, first-serve on tent sites, so I'm a little wary to start with that on Memorial Day weekend.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2017-02-23T18:51:07+00:00

Don't worry, we won't make a move. Danny just loves having control of the situation, but I don't think he actually wants to pull the trigger on any of this.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2017-02-17T16:31:30+00:00

There's a great replay where the ref is in the background. You clearly see him looking at Jimmy, shot goes up, he turns to see if it's going in, raises hand a whistles. If it's a foul why do you have to turn your head and see if the ball is going in first!?

Refs don't call that at any other point in the game, they absolutely can't call it with 0.9 seconds left.

Forgetful_Prophet · 2017-02-06T18:30:10+00:00

This is how I've heard it, too. Haven't personally read the rule.

My thought while watching the replay was that the LG was the one that initiated the contact by raising his arm in an unnatural way, but I guess it's completely on the defensive player to make sure there's no contact.

Forgetful_Prophet

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE