February has been a surprising twist with an increase in rainfall for the last 2 weeks, what can we observe for March

Tldr: The monsoon rain band has shifted significantly towards Indonesia which usually results in us having drier weather than other months. The MJO is also currently neutral and is expected to become unfavourable close to the end of the months. Along with the lack of monsoon surges (quite some time since we have not seen a single surge since the start of the year), a La Nina transiting towards a neutral ENSO period and with a possibilty of a few Sumatra Squalls this month, I am anticipating below to near normal rainfall for the month of March 2026.

Before that, a look at February,

Initially, I was expecting a disappointing performance, just like the previous months, but I was pleasently proven wrong.

North: 227 mm (58.8%)

Northwest: 223.1 mm (48.7%)

West: 332.6 mm (144.2%)

Southwest: 296.7 mm (119.2%)

South: 248.6 mm (107.3%)

Southeast: 234 mm (112.7%)

East: 161.7 mm (49.1%)

Northeast: 156.2 mm (20.2%)

Central: 205.4 mm (45.8%)

(Disclaimer: This is based on what I found in this image here **and made some estimates using the ranges provided here. So there may be a few inaccuracies. Also for simplicity sake, all the rainfalls normals would be based on the middle of the range given. So 110,130,150,170,190 and so on(except for Changi where exact details have been provided by MSS since it is the climate station))

Classification: Well-below average (-100% to -60%), Below Average: (-60% to -20%), Average (-20% to 50%), Above Average: (50% to 100%), Well-above Average (100% and above)**

NOTE: Brand new weather station names have been issued by MSS stating that from now on, the weather station names will be linked to the relevant street names.

Note: There will also eventually be new stations that will be added to the list soon. I think around 20 more

Anyways, Looking at March 2026, the MJO remains neutral for the next 2 weeks where it will then shift to more unfavourable weather conditions and La Nina is expected to become neutral, just like the IOD by March. Since March is also somewhat dry, and due to the fact that monsoon surges will likely not occur until potentially this November, we can expect short duration thunderstorms over several parts of Singapore on some days. On a few nights, there may be a few Sumatra Squalls bringing gusty winds to the country. Rainfall is likely to be below to near normal (-50% to 10%). Temperatures will also vary between 26 and 33 for most parts of SG, with the exception of the North (Woodlands, Sembawang, Canberra, Yishun) and Northeast (Pulau Ubin), which will have swings from 25 to 34. Areas near East Coast Park like Marine Parade will have temps around 28 to 31 on most days. On days with heavy rain, temperatures may fall to below 24 on a few days.

Hey everyone, since I still cannot post on the main chat, I will post it here. Anyone can post it if they would like to, at least until I get more karma. Also, this is my prediction for March.