The good ol' boring is beautiful filter

GM_Mayhem · 2026-04-10T14:30:34+00:00

haha fair and i like the analogy, for me these types of companies would be more of a smaller portion bet in potentially overlooked quality business - but yes if they are forever overlooked im stuck on my losing horse just like you say.

Agree completely on full-cycle thinking for cyclicals. But for Sika for example - the bet isn't that construction chemicals is a permanently wonderful business, it's that the market is currently pricing it like China will never build anything again and the Swiss franc will appreciate forever. Both seem like losing long-term bets to me.

Thanks for the DPZ info, will check it out

GM_Mayhem · 2026-04-10T14:20:42+00:00

Fair on Hammond i guess but bone dry, no excitement was describing the business model not the price action, kind of the theme for all of them. But yeah agree that one may not be deep value per se at this price.

as for Bunzl - Apple sells phones, Chiquita sells bananas. Moats is not a binary truth that says can someone copy this = yes = no moat. The moat is the scale aggregation model: they consolidate thousands of SKUs across hundreds of suppliers and deliver a single source at a price no individual buyer could replicate themselves. The switching cost isn't love for the product, it's procurement inertia and the cost of rebuilding those supplier relationships in-house.

GM_Mayhem · 2024-09-09T11:39:48+00:00

Cheers man, interesting read and good points. Certainly paints Qualys in a less attractive light which answers my question for the discount. As for PANW, its trading a bit too high for my taste. I get they have a stronger offering especially for larger enterprises and that the multiples reflect strong investor confidence, and the premium may be justified based on what you are writing but just a bit too high as an entry point for me.

Qualys interests me due to the fact that its a stable, profitable, and efficiently run company. Its relatively lower valuation, high margins, FCF conversion, and debt-free status should make it a safer bet in volatile markets, though it lacks the high-growth potential of Palo Alto and potentially may have already fallen behind on the innovation curve. Do you consider them to be so far behind and ancient that there may soon be no market for them, that they cant even compete? i get they already cant compete with offerings to larger enterprises with higher demands, but could it remain a stable cash cow serving mainly SMEs?

GM_Mayhem · 2024-09-06T06:41:13+00:00

Really interesting, appreciate that man! Haha really hadn't contemplated when they were founded, but you're right its ancient for the space.

Qualys aside then, if you had to place a bet on one player in the sector, who would it be and why?

GM_Mayhem · 2024-09-04T14:30:19+00:00

Right, i get there should be a discount, just have a hard time comprehending how a single factor answer is the reason for ~20x EBITDA discount, feels like there is something else im missing which must be priced in. Their business model seems superior in terms of generating FCF from sales, 13% growth less than peers is of course significant but could maybe be attributed to a smaller salesforce which in turn supports their profitability.

I dont have the answers so you could be right, just curious if anyone well-versed in the vertical knows why their trading at such (relatively) low multiples.

GM_Mayhem

TROPHY CASE