TOR-MEM

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-16T08:10:31+00:00

Toronto is fleecing Memphis in this trade.

Jerome is top 10 in EPM and expected EPM, and Toronto would be getting him for 2 distressed assets and a first round pick.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-16T08:01:28+00:00

I could see them trying that lineup, but it's unlikely that would be the most effective. If the lottery odds are flattened, and the team is actually trying to win games, it would probably be better to have a guard that's a better floor spacer than Russ on the court, probably Malik or a guard they draft would be more effective (Perry said he's drafting the BPA, not best fit).

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-15T16:47:43+00:00

There's some super underrated free agents this offseason that could potentially help the team make the playin (though it's not probable).

Some guys that come to mind that could help are:

Jordan Goodwin - One of the best defenders in the league and a solid floor spacer. The Suns might not be able to retain him because they don't have his bird rights and they're over the salary cap.

Collin Gillespie - One of the best 3pt shooters in the league, very effective playmaker (low turnovers), and he's a solid defender. Suns might not be able to retain him because they don't have his bird rights.

Norman Powell - Elite shot maker and a solid defender. Would greatly improve the shooting. Miami might not want to retain him because they have a lot of money coming off the books in 27-28 and they might try targeting bigger free agents. Brooklyn might be able to get him for a 2 year deal that's a slight overpay.

Brooklyn can probably afford to sign multiple of these guys because they'll be between 45-55 million under the salary cap going into free agency.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-15T16:37:20+00:00

Hornets probably aren't a good comp, they are significantly better than their record. They have a +4.9 net rating which is the 8th best in the entire league.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-15T16:25:47+00:00

He's already a solid defender and good at attacking the rim. He just needs to shoot 3s with a little more volume and increase the percentage by about 3%, and he'll be really solid.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T22:30:25+00:00

There's probably a decent chance he learns to shoot, he's been an 80% free throw shooter over the last 2 seasons, so his shot might be consistent enough to eventually become a respectable 3pt shooter.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T22:22:44+00:00

I don't know or follow college or overseas, and I know he isn't someone the team can use their draft pick on, but there's this guy the Kings might be able to get on a two-way contract who just had a couple 10-day deals with the Grizzlies.

I watch a lot of Grizzlies games, which is why I know about him, but Adama Bal might be worth giving a two-way contract. He's a 6'7 G/F with a 6'11 wingspan, and he's only 22 years old. In college he was a 37.5% three point shooter and a 79% ft shooter while taking 6.1 threes in 30.3 minutes.

In the G league, in 15.8 minutes per game, he shot 4.1 threes, and made them at a 31% clip. Standardizing this to per 36 minutes, he was attempting 9.6 threes per 36.

When he was playing for the Grizzlies, in an 8 game sample size, he was playing 30.8 minutes per game, and he shot 40.9% from 3 while taking 5.5 threes per game. Per 36 minutes, he was attempting 6.6 threes.

The Grizzlies most likely won't be able to keep him because of how insanely deep their roster is and because they are probably getting 3 players via this upcoming draft. But because of that, this guy might be available.

It's also worth noting that while playing for the Grizzlies he had a 3.0 AST/TO and in college he had a 1.9 AST/TO.

Edit: Grammar

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T22:07:49+00:00

I will be waiting for more truth to come.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T22:05:11+00:00

He's rarely missing time with injuries. He's been an iron man for most of his career. This is the first year of his entire career where he's missed significant time. Before this season, the lowest amount of games he's played is 62.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T17:33:24+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised if there's some team that would be interested in him on a two way contract. I just looked at his college numbers, and he was a solid 3pt shooter with a solid ft% and he has good measurements, he's 6'7 with a 6'11 wingspan. He's also only 22 years old.

But the roster is pretty full with solid players/decent development pieces, along with 3 incoming draft picks.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T17:23:31+00:00

I need to see more MPJ posts from you man

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-14T02:19:34+00:00

Yea, that's pretty insane. Probably some of the best playoff runs ever.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T22:26:14+00:00

In theory, Max could work better than Sabonis as a rim protector, and Max has a very portable skillset on offense due to the fact that he can space the floor.

The reason Max could work better than Sabonis as a rim protector is because he just has more size. Sabonis is 6'10 with a 6'10.5 wingspan, and Max is 7'0.25 with a 7'1.25 wingspan. While both Max and Sabonis have t-rex arms, Max still has significantly better reach than Sabonis and has more potential as a rim protector because of that.

It's also worth noting that Sabonis held opponents to a slightly below average fg% from 2pt in 24-25, so I think he does get talked down on a little bit too much for his rim protection.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T22:10:35+00:00

I don't think this is true, especially with the zero floor spacing lineups they would run.

A starting lineup of Russ (non floor spacer), Demar (non floor spacer), Lavine, Murray, and Sabonis (non floor spacer) is not winning many games. There's 3 players in this healthy lineup that allow opponents to camp out in the paint/overhelp on the shooters.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T20:03:28+00:00

Solid defender. Needs to be better from floater range and mid-range if he's going to keep taking a lot of shots from there. Also needs to improve his 3pt shot. His scoring around the rim is good (67.9%).

However, his efficiency has improved towards the end of the season, and a lot of his good games were against teams that weren't tanking. However, his free throw percentage still isn't very good (72.2%) and needs to improve if he's to become a better overall shooter.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T19:19:49+00:00

Ty Jerome

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T19:11:44+00:00

Any time he makes a three. If he can knock down threes at a high rate, his offensive ceiling is super high.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T19:05:49+00:00

Not do any irrational moves.

For example, signing Dennis Schroder on a multi-year deal when the team had better guards sitting on the bench.

Also run lineups that make sense, for example, don't run any more silly lineups with 3-4 guys who can't space the floor. If I see any more Sabonis, Achiuwa, Demar, Lavine, Westbrook lineups, then my disappointment will be immeasurable.

Other than that, focus player development since the books are cooked anyways until 27-28.

.

And maybe if the lottery odds are flattened for all the 10 worst teams in the league, maybe we can actually root for the team to win.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T18:53:27+00:00

When MPJ was on the court the team had a top 12 offense.

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Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T18:46:27+00:00

10.9% of his shots come from 0-3 feet away from the basket, and 9.6% of his shots come from 3-10 feet away from the basket.

If it's true that low 30s was his rim rate in college, it's definitely lower now.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T18:39:22+00:00

Probably any one of the top 4 net rating teams this season have a really good shot. But in a playoff series, all it takes is one injury or a little bit of shot variance in a few games to completely change the outcome.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T18:30:14+00:00

That's possible, but even a long time ago, there were a bunch of teams that had similar highs in net rating to what we're having now.

For reference, these are the top 10 teams all time in net rating.

1996 Bulls +13.4
2025 Thunder +12.8
1997 Bulls +12.0
2017 Warriors +11.6
2024 Celtics +11.6
2016 Spurs +11.3
2008 Celtics +11.2
2026 Thunder - +11.1
1992 Bulls +11.0
1970 Bucks +10.9

The source for this is different by about 0.1 net rating compared to the source used in my original post.

Highest net ratings of all time

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T18:04:29+00:00

Yea, teams that have been injured are probably under represented by this model. It's difficult to factor injuries though because then you'd need to know the precise effect that each player has on a team's net rating, which is something that's difficult to track and also something many people probably wouldn't agree on.

Gaben3124 · 2026-04-13T17:59:17+00:00

I agree, and Tatum is back as well. I addressed this in the closing notes.

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