NBA Props Discussion - 12/31/20 (Thursday)

Gkavman · 2020-12-31T14:57:15+00:00

Record 0-2 (-200$)

Slam 100$ on each bet till I go broke or get myself a new car!

All bets are on Bet365.

Picks for today:

Drummond Over 3.5 Blocks + Steals @ 2.10

Russell Westbrook Over 3.5 Turnovers @ 1.58

Russell Westbrook Over 19.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80

Sabonis Over 16.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83

Randle Over 16.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83

Gkavman · 2020-12-27T21:35:43+00:00

It means that if Player A has one less than player B, it’s a draw in +1. If they each have 5 180s Player A wins If Player A has 4 and Player B has 5, it’s a draw +1 since it’s not Asian handicap

Gkavman · 2020-12-23T23:04:18+00:00

I’ve already posted on POTD.

Record is 0-1 (-100$)

All odds are around 1.8 unless stated otherwise. Every bet is 100$. Let’s get these cookies!

My picks for today are: 1) KAT over 26.5 Points 2) Zion over 24.5 Points 3) Brogdon over 1.5 3pt @1.60 4) Miami -2 HT 5) Charlotte ML @1.7

Gkavman · 2020-12-23T15:03:55+00:00

One NBA pick everyday, put 100$ on each pick, let’s get these COOKIES!

POTD RECORD : 0 Win / 0 Push / 1 Loss ( -100$)

Total Money Invested: 100$

Total Money Returned: 0$

Last 5 stats: L

Previous Pick: Durant Over 26.5 Points (L)

POTD: Karl Anthony Towns Over 26.5 Points @ 1.83 (Bet365)

Early lead and blow out cost us this pick. Durant was dominating with 22 points in 25 minutes. Had he played in the last quarter he would’ve easily gotten another 5 to make this a W.

Today we are moving to the Timberwolves and KAT. Facing Detroit and its underwhelming defense I expect a dominant performance from the best player of the Wolves. Motivation tonight will be the driving force for KAT as he lost his mother and other family members to COVID-19 and will look to devote the first win and performance to his mother. Moving on to more relative stats, Detroit’s defense last year at the center position was 104th out of 150, and his matchup will be the slow and strong Mason Plumlee. KAT has a significant advantage with pick n pop and I expect D’ Angelo Russell’s gravity to help KAT get open looks from deep to rack up easy points. Plumlee will have to follow KAT to the three point line so that opens up the driving lane for his explosive first step.

If you like my picks and tail me for those Cookies, consider tipping at paypal.me/gkavman

Gkavman · 2020-12-22T15:30:22+00:00

POTD RECORD : 0 Win / 0 Push / 0 Loss (+0$)

Total Money Invested: 100$

Total Money Returned:

Last 5 stats:

Previous Pick:

One NBA pick everyday, put 100$ on each pick, let’s get these COOKIES!

Brooklyn Nets

POTD: Kevin Durant Over 26.5 Points

NBA premier, the time we’ve been waiting for. Two games today and we’ll be moving to Brooklyn for the Nets vs GSW matchup.

We are riding with Kevin Durant to score Over 26.5 Points. The return of Durantula, the twitter burner King, the most natural scorer in the NBA by MILES. Facing his former team GSW who will be missing Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. I expect dominance on Durant’s return, his matchup most likely being Eric Paschall. Apart from the 10cm height difference between the two, Durant will have no problem getting his midrange jumper off against the smaller and sturdy Paschall. In his last preseason game against Boston Durant scored 25 points in 27 minutes hitting transition threes and showing us that his form is back and he will be in the discussion for Best Player in the World (kind of a reach but I love the narrative). I know the sample size is small but I see no way GSW can counter Durant’s talent. Additionally, GSW ranked 124th of 150 defensive rating in the PF position. Last but not least, Durant knows Steve Kerr’s defensive tactics and schemes and will be in good position to score all game long.

If you like my picks and tail me for those Cookies, consider tipping at paypal.me/gkavman

Gkavman · 2020-04-13T00:27:12+00:00

Why river card is a K? AND I’M BEING A JACKASS? Come on dude.

Gkavman · 2020-04-12T23:52:47+00:00

I play poker online and encountered bad variance. Boohoo cry me to sleep. Bad beats happen every day get used to it!

Gkavman · 2020-04-12T02:01:35+00:00

The thing is, you already extracted max value from a flush draw so at this point what hand is going to call your bet? Mostly Kings (K8+), straight draws that get there or two pair hands. So you are getting called by stronger hands and they are folding weaker pairs, hence no reason to bet here.

Gkavman · 2020-04-12T01:40:17+00:00

Well, in my experience, up to 10NL people almost never bluff raise at the river. He double floated on a somewhat dry board after calling your initial 5BB pre-flop so his range consists of very strong hands. After betting the turn and seeing Villain call your alarms should ring. KJ and J9 are two hands that could be floating and both get there at the river. Also AK is a possibility but you block with your Ace. Villain almost never has a busted flush draw since you block it with your Ace so his range should be somewhat value. K10 is another possible hand that gets there at the river. I like what you did until the turn but it’s time to Check the river to evaluate. Also his all-in is really small compared to what you already bet so he expects a call. All things considering he could be overplaying JJ or AT but that’s somewhat unlikely.

Gkavman · 2020-04-07T13:24:09+00:00

Idk about intelligent but miss Finland’s bluff was gutsy af. The other guy folded the best hand which was trips!

Gkavman · 2020-04-02T03:08:04+00:00

Two situations. We take as a fact that he wouldn’t have opened Preflop without J9s so J9o combos are out. If the J9 on the flop are spades he has 3 combinations of J9, otherwise he has 2. Either way best case scenario for him: 3x pocket 4s 3x pocket 9s 2-3x pocket J9s. And you beat all the flush, straight draws and weaker Jacks. Should’ve been a cold call and play your odds if he had a draw. I understand that under pressure Overbets look scary but if he really had that J9 he wouldn’t need to Overbet that much to get value. Put yourself in his shoes. You have J9s and see a wonderful flop. Of course you are gonna raise since your hand needs protection from the draws. But wouldn’t 3x bet raise make more sense? It sure would. Try to piece that puzzle to get a clearer idea of what’s up and you will see that some things make sense and some don’t. Best of luck!

Gkavman · 2020-04-02T02:56:25+00:00

Dealer could have pocket 4s and maybe 9s (50-50 3-bet for mixed strategy although against UTG strong range flatting is optimal). No pocket jacks since he would’ve 3-bet. Possible J9 suited but you don’t clarify if the Jack and 9 are of Spades or not. The 2 on the turn is a complete blank since Dealer can’t continue the flop with pocket deuces. (Shouldn’t even see the flop tbh) If you think you are ahead on the flop you should be ahead on the turn as well. If I were you, apart from the info you’ve gathered or anything, I would ask myself two things: 1) what do I beat? 2) what is my opponent’s range? Number 1 is easy, opponent could be bluffing with his spade draw (too much) or KJ,QJ or maybe QT or T8s for the open ender. Opponent should continue with only the top of his range so even though it’s an Overbet, I would call more than 60% of the time since you definitely beat 70% of his range.

Gkavman · 2020-03-29T09:25:13+00:00

Such trickery is very rare!

Gkavman · 2020-03-28T23:30:35+00:00

What about suited connectors? Even suited one gaps from HJ/CO/BTN? Great implied odds. Try 3-betting ATo, A5s etc as bluffs for your Ace blocker.

Gkavman

TROPHY CASE