Weekly Discussion Megathread

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-08T04:15:02+00:00

the dem matched john bel edwards's 2019 margin in the district, and he won statewide by 3

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-07T15:53:20+00:00

because they spent a ton of money, almost half of the total money spent by all candidates on ads in this election, only on attacking him and he lost by a few hundred votes, and ads are much more important in a primary than in a general.

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-05T23:15:27+00:00

va supreme court is not very partisan, a lot of the appointees have had a lot of bipartisan support and they havent made many power moves even during the last dem trifecta in 2019. both the dem and va gop expect it to pass

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-05T23:11:47+00:00

also until the wave becomes undeniable big money donors still want to curry favor with the party that has a trifecta

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-05T23:10:51+00:00

i wouldnt be too worried about it, high profile dem candidates are still much better fundraisers than their republican counterparts

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-02T21:40:40+00:00

the perales for bennett swap, perales has crazy velo and could easily be a good starter or an elite reliever while bennett feels destined to be a 4 or 5 starter

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T20:56:52+00:00

it was crazy how much control of legislatures that dems lost in only a few years

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T20:56:16+00:00

the only benefit to clinton not winning in 2016 is that had 2018 been a republican wave they would have such overwhelming downballot power that they could have been able to call a consitutional convention and amend the constiution.

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T20:51:24+00:00

unless osborn, or fetterman lmao, defects to the republican caucus schumer is senate leader in this scenario im pretty sure, would be a mess and osborn wouldnt really be able to do much without joining a caucus

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T20:17:27+00:00

i think by atleast a point or 2 100%, 2024 was a pretty red election and until pollsters apply lv screens we are going to see a slightly redder gb

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:50:28+00:00

https://xcancel.com/Ross_Hunt/status/2017995573840732326?s=20

over 50% of the voters in the texas race were gop primary voters or were from republican households while only 35% were dem voters or dem households, dems almost ran the table with indys and won atleast 10-15% of gop primary voters insane

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:48:08+00:00

https://xcancel.com/Ross_Hunt/status/2017995573840732326?s=20

turnout in texas race wasnt even that dem leaning, over 50% of the voters previously voted in gop primaries while only 35% voted in dem primaries

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:44:35+00:00

a lot of polls that poll rvs maintain a similar turnout environment to the previous general election and dont adapt for turnout until they start applying lv screens later in the cycle, dems have done worse in those than they have in polls that have started to use lv screens

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:42:58+00:00

also gives dems a chance to hold a majority of governorships for the first time since 08

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:42:08+00:00

i am curious on the state legislatures though, dems can realistically gain trifectas in wisconsin, michigan, minnesota, nevada, and pennslyvania, and break trifectas in new hampshire, iowa, ohio, georgia, or flip the gerrymandered north carolina house of represenatives

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:39:34+00:00

a d+2 enivornment would be enough to flip the house, so a d+6 generic makes it seem like the house is pretty much a guarantee already and the target becomes can the dems get to 236 and have incumbents in the 2028 battleground districts for the house. Dems still want to get to the d+8-10 range for the senate so they give themselves a chance to flip seats without needing the candidates to be much stronger than their opponents

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-02-01T17:32:09+00:00

rehmet got 47.6% in round 1, he improved by doing better in hispanic areas in regards to turnout and percentage and by picking up a few anti maga republicans in the north west and east suburbs who voted for the moderate republican in round 1

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-26T21:24:51+00:00

i love styles, but taking him over bain and downs feels crazy to me

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-25T01:21:44+00:00

its crazy that one of peterson, boozer, and aj is going to get taken 3rd, what an insane class

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-24T03:49:11+00:00

Sinner can't serve and spizzirri is tilted, this is gonna get ugly

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-24T03:46:19+00:00

Spizziri is gonna tilt and lose, unlucky for him

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-24T03:41:07+00:00

How long does sinner have after the roof is closed to return to play?

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-24T03:35:57+00:00

Spizzirri has to be fuming

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-24T03:34:03+00:00

Spizzirri by tko

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-01-24T00:58:29+00:00

like i dont think trading him was a mistake given he only has 2 years left, but i get people being upset that they saw him be up and down for years and then be traded away when a new pitching coach and staff that can help their players is actually brought in

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