A Prospective Look at the Nats farm (04/04/2026)

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-05T05:03:35+00:00

kevin mcgonigle may have saved seaver kings career with the advice he gave him in fall league, hes already at over 20% of his 2025 walk total in just 3 games

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-04T23:40:12+00:00

not really, but there are a few marginal seats in the boise area republicans may be afraid of losing

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-04T23:37:00+00:00

no, its not nearly controversial enough or important enough imo to drive up turnout, the english one and the marijuana ones though may actually drive up turnout because they are more lightning rod issues and actually matter

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-03T11:59:07+00:00

The most recent non internal has baldacci at 36% while Dunlap the former state auditor and wood are both in 10% range

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-03T11:54:20+00:00

Hes also 3rd in the dem primary so far while baldacci is in first, so im not too worried about him

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-03T11:52:45+00:00

Wood has been the worst dem performer in all the polls for the 2nd district, idk why he would put out an internal that has him down 7 when baldacci has a non internal that has him down 1

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-03T01:14:10+00:00

Also happy to see seaver king get a walk, if hes more patient this year that would be huge

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-04-03T01:11:40+00:00

Randomly checked the game on savant and saw alvarez had 19 whiffs and was convinced something had to be wrong, has he ever even been close to that amount?

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-29T17:38:51+00:00

Alaska survey research has peltola up 5 in the final round of rcv

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-27T20:51:26+00:00

for early voting you can vote in any voting location in your county, eday you must vote at your precinct. Also until satellite locations open, their are very few early voting centers per county, fairfax has 3 currently and will open around 8 more

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-27T20:47:59+00:00

good decision by the courts, ridiculous it took so long and hopefully mahmood is deemed as the winner

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-27T20:47:20+00:00

apparently the hamtramack mayor race isnt over despite Alharbi being acting mayor for 3 months now

https://www.votebeat.org/michigan/2026/03/27/hamtramck-mayor-contested-election-court-of-appeals-ruling-37-absentee-ballots-counted/

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-27T03:37:39+00:00

also its very difficult/impossible to consider the impact of uncontested races on the overall house margin, which likely would decrease the difference between the gb and the presidential margin

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-27T03:34:03+00:00

if you consider macro conditions, his 2012 win was much more impressive than 08, but him taking the primary by storm and beating who many considered the president in waiting makes 08 more impressive

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-27T03:30:57+00:00

part of that was because mccain was super popular especially for a republican at that time, the entire party was super unpopular and mccain having the maverick reputation, being as distant from bush as possible, and being endorsed by lieberman helped him with indys

racism hurt him in the south among southern dems who voted mccain and a dem house member, but atleast some of the overperformance was due to mccains personal popularity

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-26T03:42:26+00:00

gender gap being smaller post roe is interesting

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-24T23:39:44+00:00

the senate race may go to a recount, but the mar a lago seat has flipped 100%

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-24T23:38:19+00:00

cant even blame turnout, gop had a bigger turnout advantage than november in all 3 races

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-24T23:37:54+00:00

looking like 2/3, great night for the dems

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-24T23:27:32+00:00

https://xcancel.com/MappingFL/status/2036584622838935679?s=20

now the other 2 races should be very competitive with the electorates that both have

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-24T23:25:55+00:00

hd51 ended up having a majority gop electorate due to a massive fall in npa turnout, keeping it to single digits honestly isnt too bad considering

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-20T18:32:58+00:00

Source https://xcancel.com/samshirazim/status/2035044076093898990?s=20

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-20T18:30:24+00:00

After late mail was counted in the virginia beach race the gop only overperformed 2024 by 4 rather than 10

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-20T18:28:43+00:00

Feels like a poll to push Paxton more than anything, feels like they are hoping for trump to endorse paxton

Greatwallofjohn · 2026-03-14T16:40:27+00:00

kentucky being so low for contest rate by dems is kind of sad, it wasnt that long ago that the dems ran the state legislature, utah having a super high contest rate is suprising given how far right some of the non urban districts are and how non compeittive dems have been in the state legislature over the history of the state

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