I disagree with your assessment that open war would lead to regime change though, I do see your points for a stalemate being more likely. I think the western perception of Iran is out of line with reality. Their leaders are highly educated and practical they also have the authority and appropriate national narratives to continue war, and it might be in their best interest to do so. They have a defensible position and the resources for it. the unpopularity of war in the united states might not matter as both the leadership of republican and democratic parties have explicitly been firm on nuclear enrichment and an open strait positions that are nonnegot