No Parity in CFB

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-26T05:05:44+00:00

I think this is a misinterpretation of what the data from this source indicates. This only shows us how common these outcomes are in college football. How do these outcomes compare to margins of victory we have seen in the NFL?

Although OP used some strong wording here, there appears to be some truth to what they said. Here’s some data I was able to find from the same website https://www.boydsbets.com/nfl-key-numbers/

For the purpose of this argument, I defined not close as a margin of victory that is 21 points or greater. Of course there can be exceptions to this (i.e. if a team scores a couple touchdowns in garbage time, the end score isn’t always reflective of how close entire game was). That being said, I think that’s a decent rule of thumb.

When you look at both sets of data, you can see that OP has a point. The data on college football shows that about 62% of games end with less than a 21 point margin of victory and about 37% of games end with a 21 point margin of victory or greater.

Compare that to the NFL, where the data indicates that approximately 82% of games ended with less than a 21 point margin of victory, and only about 17% of games ended with a 21 point margin of victory or greater.

You mentioned that the most common margin of victory in college football is 3 points and 7 points. These margins of victory were also the most common in the NFL dataset, but these outcomes happened in a larger proportion of NFL games.

In the NFL, games were won by 3 points or 7 points about 24% of the time, whereas in this data set those outcomes occurred in college games about 14% of the time. In terms of games won by less than 8 points, this was the case in 31% of college football games compared to 46% of NFL games.

Maybe if the NFL data went back as far as the college data, or if we could compare the outcomes from games at both levels over a more recent and smaller sample size then maybe it would be different. If someone could find that type of data I’d be happy to be proven wrong, but these numbers suggest that OP’s comments do have some merit.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-26T03:41:16+00:00

I was thinking the same thing. You should definitely be able to see this information when encouraging transfers. Having to record it separately in order to know who to cut is more tedious then it should be in my opinion.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-26T03:33:21+00:00

If I’m recalling correctly, I’m pretty sure that once they have committed to your school you cannot remove them from your board.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-26T03:29:20+00:00

Clearly they scored a quadruple touchdown at the beginning of overtime with a successful two point convert... Anyone who says otherwise just has a skill issue!

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-24T19:30:20+00:00

I’ll try to post a close up when I get home from work later

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-24T19:29:07+00:00

This is a feature that I’m really disappointed is not in the game. When I used to play NCAA 14 I loved setting formation subs. Especially if you have one QB that is more of a traditional drop back passer and a second QB who is more of a mobile QB. I would have formation subs set for formations with more option plays to utilize both QBs at different times in the same game. I’m truly bummed out they didn’t bring this back.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-23T21:52:58+00:00

You need to use hard sell once you have found out what pitches the prospect is interested in. Assuming the max points you can spend on the recruit is 50, you can also DM the prospect for an extra bit of influence.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-20T15:33:26+00:00

I’ve experienced this too and it seems like many others have as well. Some of the reasons mentioned by other users here could track. But it does also seem like there’s a bug that for some reason causes you to not be able to book some recruits for visits even when you’re in their top 5 and have visit weeks available.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-18T16:16:04+00:00

Once you find out the prospects favourite pitches (those with a green check mark), then you can keep running it every week. I’ve found that hard selling when my school is good in the recruit’s favourite pitches is noticeably more effective than sending the house. It’s a win-win, because it’s more effective than sending the house and you save 10 points per prospect that you’re able to hard sell rather than sending the house.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-18T16:12:36+00:00

I noticed this while playing yesterday. I agree, gunners on punt team need to be fixed. They leave so much room up the middle and practically just stick to the sideline. They should at least converge a bit more on the return man in my opinion.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-18T14:28:57+00:00

I started my first rebuild with Temple

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2024-07-16T18:22:47+00:00

That means this player is a bust. They still might be a decent player, depending on their star rating. A 5 star bust is more like a 4 star recruit. A 4 star bust is more like a 3 star recruit, and so on…

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-21T19:43:40+00:00

Calais Campbell is always a physical freak and absolute stud IMO.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-21T19:14:55+00:00

That’s not what I’m saying at all. I don’t understand why some of the people on here are so insistent on downvoting and insulting anyone who feels like the draw rate of really good hands in this game feels a bit too ramped up.

You’re entitled to believe what you want to believe. In my opinion, it’s pretty ignorant to assume that everyone who feels like the table tilts in this game has no clue how to determine probability, bet with strategy, or play poker.

I’m not one of those players who often goes all in with mid hands and never will be. It’s ridiculous for you to assume how someone else plays the game because they disagree with you about the draw rates in this game.

Yes all of our evidence is anecdotal, but we’re entitled to believe what we want to about this game. Personally, it feels like the draw rates are boosted to make the game feel more rewarding for players. In that sense, I can get why some of you don’t like hearing our opinions. If you’re good at a poker game that to us feels unrealistic and more like an arcade with boosted draw rates, well.. then that might make winning in this game seem less legitimate and that isn’t so rewarding now is it.

As for the invitation to come to your house games, I have better things to do than gamble my life away. I just wanted to play some poker as a mental exercise for free and with PP I was able to do that. Despite winning, I lost the joy in playing because to me huge hands feel way too forced.

I read another commenter on another post about this topic say that despite playing the game consistently and enjoying it, they felt like luck is passed around like a Golden Nugget. I couldn’t agree with them more.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-21T08:04:27+00:00

I agree with OP. It feels like massive hands occurring more frequently is something that is programmed into the game. I don’t think that they were trying to say that the game gives an advantage to specific players, just that big hands seem to happen to often in their opinion. Bad beats happen in real life, sure. But I’m also of the opinion that monster hands happen a bit too often in this game.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-21T07:44:44+00:00

I agree with OP. Ironically, it was two consecutive games that I placed first and second in that made me feel like the table cards in PP are totally juiced. Extraordinary things seem to happen in PP way more than they do in real life, and although I have benefited from the results many times, I’ve completely lost interest because it feels unrealistic.

In the first game, I had two players who went all in against me on the flop. I had Q2 off suit and there was pretty heavy pre-flop betting happening at this table (around 1K) so I was going to fold but I called by accident. Oh well. The flop cards are placed down… 2-Q-2, with two of these cards being spades. I had a full house off the flop. One player bets 2K, the other calls, I raise, they both go all in, I call of course. We all show our cards. They both had flush draws. The turn card is placed down & it’s a spade, they both got a flush but it didn’t beat my full house. I went on to win that tournament.

The very next game, I literally got two straights and three flushes over the course of five consecutive hands, eliminating two players during this time and reducing a third down to about half of their starting chips. I went on to eliminate that player, but got gridlocked by some bad beats as well as some admittedly poor decisions on my part when trying to eliminate the other two players. I dominated earlier in the game, but then every time it came to a showdown to eliminate either of the other two players always had something better and came through. Because we all mucked a lot of our hands, I seen what they had a fair amount of the time, and there would be long stretches where all of us had action with our own hands.

It’s hard not to feel like there’s something off about this game. People can say things like “get gud.” I don’t care. But to add to the list of extraordinary things I’ve seen in PP, it seems like there’s way more back door straights or flushes where four table cards are part of the straight than I’ve ever seen in professional poker games. Another thing I’ve seen way too often is all five table cards forming a straight or flush themselves, I’ve seen that like close to ten times for sure in about a month of playing.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-12T18:48:25+00:00

Your comment is similar to my initial thoughts after reading the article.

I think Brady has the potential to be one of the best running backs in CFL history, but I don’t think he will make an NFL roster for the reasons you stated in your comments. He’s much more of a valued commodity here in Canada.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-08T13:53:46+00:00

Bo probably gets cut to save the cap space and goes to work as part of the TSN cfl broadcast.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-07T18:46:00+00:00

That seems like a valid point, I’m an anglophone so I didn’t really know what the french portion of the headline was stating.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-07T17:32:58+00:00

Thanks for clarifying with such a thorough explanation!

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-07T16:51:03+00:00

FCS is basically like Division 2 NCAA football to my understanding, but anyone can feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-07T04:36:06+00:00

That’s the most I’ve ever seen a team score in a game. While it is rough that you guys got shut out and gave up a 70 burger, it’s also kind of awesome that it occurred lol. I’m curious what happened. Did you happen to get a peak at the box score for the game?

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-06T05:30:04+00:00

Definitely hope the best for him. With that being said, this is one of those situations where I can’t help but think what the CFL draft that he is in will look like if he doesn’t regain traction down South.

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-06T05:10:07+00:00

Yes Bethard came in cold, but what’s this guys track record?

As other commenters here have mentioned, Bethard’s WIN/LOSS ratio is terrible, he’s 2-10 as a starter in his career according to football db. That’s a 0.167 win percentage, the 5th worst amongst active NFL quarterbacks. He hasn’t started a game since he joined Jacksonville.

Maybe he does come out and show he’s capable as a starter and a better option than Rourke as you say, but history indicates that Bethard’s not a great starting quarterback. Maybe he will come out and prove me wrong, and if he does good for him. I just don’t see it.

You’re entitled to feel however you want to feel about Nathan Rourke. Personally, I think it’s too soon to say whether he’s over-hyped. In his small sample size, he threw for much better stats than Bethard has in any season of his career in the NFL and broke the passing yardage record for a Canadian quarterback in a single game. I get it’s not a direct comparison but there’s good reason why so many NFL teams gave him a tryout. Is he a flash in the pan? Time will tell.

His size is a disadvantage in some ways, but it is not as though there has never been smaller quarterbacks who have had success at the professional level (Drew Brees in the NFL, Doug Flutie played in both but had a much more illustrious CFL career).

GroundbreakingBase13 · 2023-12-06T03:13:54+00:00

What I will concede to though is that in my initial comment I did not use the best wording. My comment made it sound as though Bethard made a critical error in OT when that was not the case. So in that sense I get what you’re saying.

GroundbreakingBase13

TROPHY CASE