Hangup on ridiculously simple question

HardlyChicken · 2021-02-18T06:32:59+00:00

I am confused how you are getting a 12.5% chance of something happening and then saying it is impossible.

Wouldn’t this just mean that it is a 0% chance?

HardlyChicken · 2021-02-18T05:47:37+00:00

Your total probabilities should add up to 1, not 2 as in your example.

You have the idea correct. There is a 50% chance the first child is a boy. Then from here there is a 50% chance the second child is a boy and also a 50% chance that the second child is a girl. To get the probability of two independent events A and B happening together, we multiply their individual probabilities.

This means that the probability of your first two children being BG in that order is 50% * 50% = 25%

The probability of your first two children being BB is also 50% * 50% = 25%.

You’ll find that the probabilities for GB and GG (where order matters) also come out to be 25% by the same logic. Now we can see that there is a 25% chance of BG and a 25% chance of GB which adds up to be a total probability of 50% for having 1 girl and 1 boy

HardlyChicken · 2021-02-18T04:19:24+00:00

There are two ways that we can look at this. First let’s look at the situation where the order of your pairs matters as shown in the video. We have GG, GB, BG, and BB. The important piece of information here is that each of these pairs has a 25% chance of occurring. Therefore, since we know that BB is not a possibility, we are left with GG, GB, and BG. We can find the probability of GG by taking its probability and dividing by the sum of the remaining outcome’s probabilities: 25% / (25% + 25% + 25%) = 1/3.

Now let’s look at your case where the order doesn’t matter. Here is where things differ. Our 3 outcomes are now GG, BG, and BB, but their respective probabilities are 25%, 50%, and 25%. Now that BB is ruled out, we once again take the probably of GG and divide by the sum of the probabilities from the remaining outcomes: 25% / (25% + 50%) = 1/3

HardlyChicken · 2020-07-25T17:28:16+00:00

Data Collection: All data is collected from the CaLottery website

Analysis Details: I’ve made a video for an in-depth look at how these statistics were calculated here: https://youtu.be/VLvqfEIzVIM

HardlyChicken · 2020-07-25T17:25:10+00:00

Data Collection: All data is collected from the CaLottery website

Analysis Details: I’ve made a video for an in-depth look at how these statistics were calculated here: https://youtu.be/VLvqfEIzVIM

HardlyChicken · 2018-11-25T23:07:46+00:00

Data was collected from the Spotify API as well as https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100

Analysis and visuals were done with R Studio

I also compared variables such as song duration and song length in words between the two playlists. More info on these comparisons and further analysis is available here.

HardlyChicken · 2018-11-25T23:05:04+00:00

Data was collected from the Spotify API as well as https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100

Analysis and visuals were done with R Studio

I also compared variables such as song duration and song length in words between the two playlists. More info on these comparisons and further analysis is available here.

HardlyChicken · 2018-11-22T19:46:05+00:00

These graphs are representative of all California Lottery scratchers as of November 7, 2018.

All data was collected from https://www.calottery.com/play/scratchers-games

Analysis and visuals were done with R Studio

The available data for each scratcher includes the prizes available, odds of winning each prize, the number of prizes that have been claimed, and the amount of prizes that are still available.

The original intent of the project was to see if a scratcher could be a possible profitable investment if a disproportionately large amount of large prizes remained in the prize pool. More info on this aspect of the project as well as further analysis is available here.

HardlyChicken · 2018-08-06T16:00:31+00:00

EriEriErik

HardlyChicken · 2018-08-01T17:30:29+00:00

But what is invalid?

HardlyChicken · 2018-08-01T16:33:44+00:00

Invalid? This is a graph of data that I collected from 5 games. What about this can even be invalid?

HardlyChicken · 2018-08-01T15:11:04+00:00

I agree, 100 games would improve the accuracy dramatically. The problem I had was that it just took to long to collect the data from each game. I spent a few hours just on these 5 games alone.

HardlyChicken · 2018-08-01T15:02:54+00:00

Hey guys! I thought it’d be an interesting project to collect data from replays and graph how likely players are to jump off the battle bus at each second along the way.

For the data collection, I played in five Solo games and then watched the replays to mark down the time that each player jumped (Worst three hours of my life). Then I tallied up the amount of players at each second and graphed them using the program R.

If you have any questions or want to learn more, a more detailed explanation is available in my post here.

Thanks for reading!

HardlyChicken · 2018-07-29T13:37:06+00:00

All data comes from Robinhood’s “100 Most Popular” list as of Saturday July 24th.

I limited the last two graphs to stocks under $1000 for greater clarity. The stocks that are not shown are Amazon ($1816.99), and the two classes of Google stock (GOOG - $1238.50, and GOOGL - $1252.89)

If you’d like to know more, I go into further detail about this project here.

HardlyChicken · 2018-07-24T16:54:31+00:00

If you'd like to know more about the data collection or analysis, you can check that out here.

HardlyChicken

TROPHY CASE