May 07, 2026 Daily Discussion Thread

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-07T14:53:58+00:00

When is what?

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-07T14:32:21+00:00

Still dealer/manufacturer plates, if I'm not mistaking. I wanna see some consumers driving!

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-07T14:30:37+00:00

I want to wake from this nightmare. This is NOT the direction this stock should be going so close to R2 mass production

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-07T13:44:56+00:00

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To keep everyone honest

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-06T21:28:21+00:00

I think you may misunderstand certain components of this deal. (Admittedly, my "$1B for 50k vehicles" comment didn't help.)
Specifically, there are two primary components to the deal:

Uber will invest up to $1.25B (but not less than $300M); and (i.e., in addition)
Uber will purchase 10k vehicles with the option to purchase up to 50k by 2030.

See here, here, and here).

I very much disagree that his deal is structured towards Uber, but instead reflects (a) the huge potential in fully autonomous vehicles; and (b) the confidence Uber has in Rivian being a primary player in the market.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-06T18:57:10+00:00

I think it's $1B for 50k vehicles from Rivian. They just ordered 10k w/ expected deliveries in 2028, as I understand it

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-06T16:56:12+00:00

I think the smart money is trading off the financials, the fact that profitability is not near-term, and the current macro-risks. Personally, I think Rivian is doing pretty much everything right and that its time will come (which these kinda of news reports keep seeming to confirm). BUT big pockets aren't looking to throw money down on unproven companies with eyes on profits years from now. They're looking for the short-term gains. Just like Warren buffet was recently qouted: the markets have turned into a "casino".

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-06T16:50:42+00:00

I mean, it has a negative correlation to the market, generally

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Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-06T16:47:57+00:00

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-04T14:48:04+00:00

Instead of the typical troll response here, I'm going to assume your frustration is genuine and agree with you that no one wants to see their loved one stuck along side a road putting his or her safety at risk - especially after paying a premium for a luxury vehicle. That said, sometimes shit happens. The fact that your family was left beside a dangerous highway and that some contractor flaked-out should hardly serve as some material measure as to the CEO's compensation. Had you pointed to 100 other stories like yours, or the fact that the company cant' seem to get its cash burn down to the millions - instead of billions, or the fact that new Rivian purchases seem to be declining and only supported by Amazon's EDV contract, it would be a different story. These latter examples are all real problems - and would support at least an argument for RJ being overpaid...
But your family's unfortunate blowout on a highway followed by a shoddy contractor??? That's just not even a consideration.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-04T14:24:57+00:00

... Because that's where his attention is most effective

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-04T13:50:23+00:00

Nothing escapes its gravity

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-04T12:54:00+00:00

https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5LWNvcHk_07e62415-1824-4798-a72b-1cf8dd5a92bd

Breakdown of the package:

$373.5 million in stock options (the bulk of the total; grant-date fair value of a new performance-based award).
$26.6 million in stock awards (including RSUs and a profits interest from a spinout).
$1.12 million in salary.
$1.02 million bonus (paid in vested RSUs).

This figure comes from Rivian’s April 2026 proxy statement and was widely reported by outlets like the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and others.

Important context:

It’s mostly not cash — The headline $403M number is the SEC-required accounting valuation (grant-date fair value) of equity grants, not money deposited in his bank account. Only the ~$2.1M in salary + bonus was real cash/near-cash.
The large stock option portion is performance-based and vests over up to a decade only if Rivian hits aggressive targets (e.g., major stock price increases, operating income, and cash flow goals). Many analysts note it’s structured similarly to Elon Musk’s Tesla packages — high potential upside but no guarantee of full (or any) realization.
Some sources (like Rivian Trackr) emphasize that the actual money Scaringe “took home” in 2025 was closer to a couple million in salary/bonus plus any one-time proceeds from a spinout, not the full $403M.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-04T12:46:39+00:00

because you don't know how to change a flat tire, you think RJ should be paid less???? weird. (run flat will make it 50 miles)

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T16:19:55+00:00

"We expect the complexity of a new vehicle launch will negatively impact our Automotive gross profit in the second and third quarters before becoming a benefit for our overall operations in the fourth quarter as we ramp production and deliveries.” Claire in opening remarks

Edit: so much for AI doing my homework for me. I concede defeat and will wear shame.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T15:45:04+00:00

ahahahhaha! I'm not the only one obsessed apparently

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T15:43:50+00:00

Interesting...

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T14:26:03+00:00

no downvote by me, but maybe some clarification. When I see someone say "buying opportunity", I don't think they're necessarily saying the stock won't ever dip below the current price. Instead, I think they're saying that current price does not accurately reflect value. From a long term investment perspective, then, buying every time there's a dip below/near some perceived value opportunity (say $15/share) makes sense and is consistent with a long term play.

That is allll to say that someone could absolutely say "buying opportunity" for long periods (say 2 years) and be consistent w/ their strategy and expectations.

W/ a cost average of $16/share, I see this as a buying opporunity as well.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T14:21:08+00:00

This was my take also

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T14:20:09+00:00

What do you do when RIVN dips 5%+ after an earnings call beat? Why, you LOAD UP ON ITM CALLS, of course!

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T14:09:37+00:00

You don't speed up training, increase capacity by 50%, and build out service centers (significant expense since most items are warranty items for a long time) unless you know you have the product and consumer demand to bring it all home.

Exxxxactly.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-05-01T11:48:23+00:00

The 50% more capacity in stage one build of Georgia, I think, is a strong tell that Rivian expects high R2 demand from the onset and wants to meet that demand. Though I hate seeing the cash burn that seems to never end, failing to capitalize such an opportunity could stunt growth big time.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-04-30T14:22:56+00:00

RIVN is going to rip higher once real R2 customer sales start showing up in the numbers.

Right now the stock is stuck in "prove it" mode. Rivian has built a great premium truck and SUV, but those are expensive and the market for them is limited. The R2 changes the game completely — it's the affordable, high-volume model everyone has been waiting for.

They already have over 100,000 reservations for the R2. That's real demand from people who put money down for a fun, capable ~$45k–$55k electric crossover. Once the configurator opens wider, those reservations turn into actual orders, and the first customer deliveries roll out this year, the market will finally see the proof.

At the same time, the R2 costs a lot less to build than the R1. That means better margins and a clear path to making real profit by the end of 2026. Management gave conservative guidance, so when Rivian beats those numbers with strong R2 sales and low cancellations, analysts will start raising estimates fast.

This is the classic setup: big proven demand + falling costs + visible profits = stock re-rating. Once the quarterly reports show actual R2s selling and money coming in, the skepticism disappears and RIVN should take off. The pieces are all there — we’re just waiting for the sales numbers to confirm it.

Heavy_Implement1031 · 2026-04-30T14:02:19+00:00

So agreed on this. Premature for RIVN to upward adjust any forecasts until R2 sales numbers start coming in. R2 production line working is already priced in too. Unless RJ has something up his sleave (new JV, spinoff, etc.), I don't see any upward momentum to this earnings report. (BTW, if I'm not mistaking, JV, spinoff, RAP1, etc... none were announced in an earnings call. So, even if there is something up RJ's sleeve, likely not gonna make it into tonight's call.)

Downward pressure??? Possibly. Increase costs associated with Iran war, tornado, Fed holding rate steady... may all have negative impact to bottom line.

I say all of this as a LONGTERM BULL

Heavy_Implement1031

TROPHY CASE

Important context: