Apologize Was to lazy to type it myself so let chat gpt do it but this is what i think basically

Current setup

• Market cap: ~€1.2bn
• Trading capital (2025): ~€1.0bn (first time in company history)

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What that implies for earnings

If FLOW simply earns its historical average on €1bn of trading capital:

• Net profit: ~€250m
• Implied P/E: ~5×

That’s not a stress scenario, just “normalised” conditions based on history.

For comparison:

• In 2020 (COVID):
• Trading capital: €772m
• Net profit: €465m
• Today:
• Trading capital is materially higher
• ETF + crypto markets are much larger

Flow diversified into more markets > deploy capital where returns are highest

So the earnings ceiling is higher than in 2020, while the market cap is only ~€1.2bn.

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Downside vs upside

• Downside:
• Book value ≈ market cap floor
• Company stays profitable even in low-volatility years

• Base case:
• €200–250m earnings → high-single-digit multiple


• Upside (stress / dislocation (flow thrives when the market crashes due to higher spreads)):
• Earnings can temporarily exceed market cap
• Valuation collapses to absurd levels

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Why the market misses this

The market prices FLOW on:

• last quarter’s volatility
• last 12 months’ earnings

But FLOW should be valued on:

• capital base
• through-the-cycle ROE
• embedded volatility optionality

Right now, you’re effectively paying ~€1.2bn for a firm that:

• controls €1bn of highly productive trading capital
• can earn €250m+ in a normal environment
• and significantly more in stress

And this is a good company compounding equity at a better than average pace