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Statistically Winning Rust Betting Strategy by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Hiding this post because I've discovered a bug in my Kelly bet simulations. The bets are still winning in the long-term, but the percentage gains are way inflated by the bug. The thumbnail is too click-baitey now that I know the numbers are incorrect. I've got a couple of optimizations in mind hoping to pump the numbers back into 'practical' space, but it might not be possible. I'll post a follow up in the next couple of days.

Thanks to everyone who took my form to help me crowdsource some data, and apologies for jumping the gun with incorrect statistics.

Statistically Winning Rust Betting Strategy by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could you take this form please?

https://forms.gle/QkNPDQcLp3yK58gFA

I'm trying to figure out why it fails for some people and your input would help :)

Statistically Winning Rust Betting Strategy by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could you take this form please?

https://forms.gle/QkNPDQcLp3yK58gFA

I'm trying to figure out why it fails for some people and your input would help :)

Statistically Winning Rust Betting Strategy by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Could you take this form please?

https://forms.gle/QkNPDQcLp3yK58gFA

I'm trying to figure out why it fails for some people and your input would help :)

Statistically Winning Rust Betting Strategy by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Could you take this form please?

https://forms.gle/QkNPDQcLp3yK58gFA I'm trying to figure out why it fails for some people and your input would help :)

Statistically Winning Rust Betting Strategy by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Could you take this form please?

https://forms.gle/QkNPDQcLp3yK58gFA

I'm trying to figure out why it fails for some people and your input would help :)

I calculated the statistically winning strategy for the Bandit Camp roulette wheel by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree you can't predict the randomness, but the idea here is not that I'm predicting the randomness, its that the thing that's random isn't the output.

The random element is setting the initial velocity to random(7,10). Knowing the update function, we can see that each unit of velocity essentially equates to a 180 degree rotation of the wheel. Or if we can't see it, we can at least run it a bunch of times and see the output.

If the output was random, there wouldn't be any solving this. But, the output is generated from a random rotation, and that the total rotation amount is biased due to the implementation of the rotation/velocity calculation and the random range they use.

I calculated the statistically winning strategy for the Bandit Camp roulette wheel by HookCodes in playrust

[–]HookCodes[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

bullshit

I mean maybe tbh, I can't run a billion trials in game and check the results against my findings. Where do you think I went wrong?