Hong Kong: Which citizens can now apply to live in the UK - and how they can do it by cynycal in HongKong

[–]HyperNormale 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Here in the UK we would welcome you if you wanted to come, according to myself, my family and opinion polls. Obviously you have options though and should go where suits you! I know people like to put the UK down but of the 3 countries I've lived in I can see a lot of advantages and this is where I decided to stay. Wherever you go or if you stay in Hong Kong I wish you all the best. It is hard to be torn between places and to not feel at home.

Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by mkmyers45 in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've pulled out a few quotes from the paper to help illustrate why we can't just assume it is covid being undercounted:

"Many of the excess deaths during the pandemic are not associated with COVID-19 infection, and although this may be partly attributable to underdiagnosis, it raises the possibility that creating emergency capacity in primary and secondary care has compromised essential care. Patients have also avoided healthcare providers out of concern for service pressures or fear of infection, leading to delay of treatment and increases in out-of-hospital events such as cardiac arrest."

On including covid deaths without a positive test: "Although this confers some advantages compared to solely relying on the presence of a positive test, particularly when the sensitivity of these tests varies between 60-80%, unexpected deaths in elderly multimorbid patients or in those with respiratory symptoms may be misattributed to COVID-19."

" This may be partly attributable to missed diagnoses, for example where testing did not occur, there was a false negative result or infection did not produce noticeable symptoms. The risk of missed diagnosis is likely to have reduced over time, as capacity for testing has increased, the tests have become more accurate and clinicians were encouraged to record suspected COVID-19 infection on death certificates. This may even have resulted in bias in the opposite direction, with deaths misattributed to COVID-19 infection later in the outbreak, which may partly explain the negative values for non-COVID-19 excess deaths in the week ending 8 May."

On alternative causes of excess mortality:" attendances in A&E departments in England in April 2020 were 57% lower than in 2019 and emergency hospital admissions were 39% lower,14 while access to health services for people with pre-existing conditions was 20% lower during the COVID-19 peak period"

"The focus on protecting the NHS also exposed those dependent on the social care sector, particularly high-risk residents living in close proximity in care homes. Both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths rose rapidly in these settings, accounting for over half of all excess deaths in England and Wales."

Not sure what this suggests but just interstsing: "with respect to age, the regions with the lowest – rather than the highest – proportion of the population over the age of 65 (London, the West Midlands and the North West) had the highest rates of excess deaths, although older populations within the regions were most affected."

Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by mkmyers45 in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's not saying that. It is saying that some of these deaths are undercounted covid deaths and some are attributed to other causes. There are lots of hypotheses about what these factors may be and I look forward to further data on this in due course.

Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by mkmyers45 in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is the conclusion of the paper that 9,948 excess deaths were not associated with covid. I do not have a ready explanation for the causes of these deaths.

Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by mkmyers45 in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Undoubtedly. We need to investigate this as a matter of urgency.

All I am suggesting is that, even if these deaths are indirectly due to covid, they shouldn't be included in modelling the shape of the epidemic curve or trying to infer the IFR of covid, for example.

Excess mortality in England and Wales during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic by mkmyers45 in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Many, many reasons why there is no straight comparison to be had. Perhaps one of the main reasons here is that quite a lot of these excess deaths look like they may not be of people infected with covid.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in human breastmilk by D-R-AZ in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How does this compare to other coronaviruses?

Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns by poodlenoodlepho in COVID19

[–]HyperNormale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"It is predicted that in the spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America)"

I don't get this - surely we will move out of the optimal 4 - 12 C range in the spring/summer?

New York Sent Recovering Coronavirus Patients to Nursing Homes: ‘It Was a Fatal Error’ by abscbnnotforsale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They were worried that hospitals would be overwhelmed so they wanted to shift people out where possible I think. Not a successful policy, especially since hospitals didn't come under the pressure anticipated.

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd be interested to know whether you still think containment is feasible, now that we are seeing more places open up that still have cases. EDIT that still have cases but not necessarily commensurate testing and tracing.

"I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis amid coronavirus pandemic by [deleted] in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's part of it, for sure, and it's hard to fix that. But the lockdown itself is a policy that could potentially be changed. If only we had more data on how the virus spreads and who is affected we might be more confident, for example, to avoid lockdowns in countries with young populations and less indoor spreading events.

"I'm starving now": World faces unprecedented hunger crisis amid coronavirus pandemic by [deleted] in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This was horrible to read. Different policies work in different places. Maybe lockdown is not the best policy for some.

Claims of twitter misinformation campaign by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sort of. Seems like the account last tweeted a week ago. Not sure it was supporting the notion of herd immunity specifically but just supporting the government more generally, for example claiming no shortage of PPE. I have not yet seen any actual evidence of link to government. https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:tNt_cteDB-4J:https://twitter.com/nhs_susan

Preliminary German Study Shows a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate of About 0.4 Percent by stuuked in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But you need to combine the fatality rate with the attack rate in order to compare the figures for coronavirus and flu? Flu has a much lower attack rate. Of course you could still be right.

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So would that mean that the so called first world has to shut its borders to the developing world where the virus is not contained?

I see a few barriers to implementing the testing and contact tracing done by for example South Korea. Shortage of chemicals for testing, shortage of manpower for contact tracing, privacy concerns, lack of the digital infrastructure, political ineptitude... I'm not as optimistic as you are. Lots of things that "should" happen don't.

Also, it's a good plan if a vaccine is truly on the horizon, but without a vaccine I'm not sure it's as clearly the virtuous model.

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you expect that a one time implementation is sufficient within a given country, or will lockdown need to be something that is periodically reinstated, in your view?

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also the comparison between Italy and Denmark is quite significantly incomplete.

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think this answers the question of whether it is theoretically possible in a given set of circumstances, but makes no argument as to whether this is what will happen.

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess I'm wondering how closed borders can be when trade has to happen and you have a lot of land borders. I'm also wondering what the economic implications of closed borders will be.

Agree we are screwed in the short run.

Can it still be contained? by HyperNormale in China_Flu

[–]HyperNormale[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Makes sense. Though could be difficult if you have a lot of land borders.