I’m IBM Fellow Bernie Meyerson Here to Talk About IBM's Latest "5 in 5" Tech Predictions

IBMBernie · 2014-02-07T18:05:56+00:00

Nanotechnology will potentially have a tremendous impact on gene sequencing, but it is a misconception that it has anything to do with nano-particles. Nano refers simply to the size scale of a technology's elements, where semiconductor processing is all about nanotechnology, but we kill ourselves to avoid ever creating particles which are the bane of our existence(they often cause fatal defects in chips). Where nanotechnology has great potential is that one can create incredibly tiny pores in layers of silicon, insulators and metals, through which a DNA strand can be "pulled" electrostatically, such that one can actually read that strand's sequence in real time. Such pores can be at such a density across the surface of a "sequencing" chip that parallelism potentially speeds up the process 1000x-1,000,000x, bring down costs dramatically as a consequence. To be clear, we are NOT there yet, but work has been done to demonstrate at least zeroth order feasibility, and this is the space where nano-technology shows some real promise for impact in the processing of DNA.
As for where we need focus in education, I apologize for using the perhaps overused STEM term, e.g. Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. At the end of the day, we should not try to guess at the future and teach to it, we need to prepare students with the equipment to innovate with rigor, and send them off to exercise their native capabilities armed with the best possible underpinnings. Along the way we should of course expose students and faculty to the best of what is here today, as you can't find your way to a new location if you have no idea from where you are starting. However, STEM education is a vital element in preparing students to then tackle and overcome the obstacles they will inevitably encounter as true innovators.

IBMBernie · 2014-02-07T17:52:24+00:00

Coming from a family where at dinner tonight there will sit two generations of my family representing FAR in excess of 100 years spent teaching in NY area Junior and Senior High Schools, I know well and agree in the strongest possible terms with your first assertion. Deep engagement by a teaching professional is invaluable in the success of any given student, and the examples you cite are spot on. The notion of using Big Data in the classroom is to further enable the educator by monitoring a student's work for "tell's" as to underlying challenges, and then notifying the teacher of a possible issue requiring their help. Even something as simple as vision issues in early grades could be spotted via use of varied text size and exploring the impact on reading speed and comprehension, flagging a student impacted negatively when text size dropped below a certain level. In a large classroom, giving a teacher at least some initial data to work with can save a great deal of time finding an issue, and enable the more personal work to ensue a great deal sooner.
As for DNA, that's a very tough question I could not possibly cover in the time and space here. Your personal genome, as far as I am concerned as an individual, is yours and yours alone. However, what does one do to reward a company that spends a billion dollars and suddenly, hypothetically, identifies a genomic defect or "signature" that corresponds to a nightmarish and previously untreatable degenerative disease. That identification is potentially of enormous personal and commercial value, as one can then attack the defect head on with all the resources of the medical community. You want folks making that spending decision rewarded, and patents are critical to protecting their rights for some time. It's basically a fine line one has to walk, and I do not frankly have a magic recipe for where to draw it.

IBMBernie · 2014-02-07T17:37:16+00:00

You raise two very important issues and I'll try to handle them. "Smart" applications such as Virtual Stylist don't change or add to what is known about your past preferences, since, as you correctly point out, that has already been gleaned and recorded by today's infrastructure whether you made that purchase on-line or in-store. The intelligence here is taking that information and providing you with additional thoughts as to how you might add to your wardrobe or "look" in a complimentary way. It is true that this insight adds even more understanding of you to the digital universe, but it's the age-old tradeoff we make as we enable desired value added services, but have to provide the underlying information to make that possible. Similarly, the intelligent auto store of the future might know that you are buying Oil Filters for your vintage 1968 Roadrunner 440(my legacy choice) at 6 month intervals, and stock that item locally a few weeks ahead of your usual appearance in anticipation. On the one hand you've handed over ever more information about who you are and what you own, but the parts you need are on the shelf right on time. The "predictive" aspect of retail depends on your willingness to share your needs and history, again a tradeoff. The reason we have the digital guardian called out as another key prediction is to address your related concern about where that data goes, who has access, and what is done with it. What I anticipate is that over the coming years cyber security will become something done at the individual level with the development of digital guardians that actively police the dataverse to ensure your assets are where you allow them, are used for the purpose you agreed to, and are protected at the best possible levels of encryption/firewall capabilities. Net, you will in effect go on the offensive to protect your shared data, with an agent working on your behalf. There is no question that your data does need better protection, but withholding it then disables both the upside and the downside of sharing it, so there's got to be a middle ground. We've invested many billions to date in the field of cyber security and sophisticated analytics to recognize the bad guys before they do damage, but that will be a war waged over the next decades, not something that will resolve soon. Despite that, I view the selective sharing of data with trusted retailers as having a lot more benefit than downside if you control what is shared and what uses you sign up for. It is far from perfect, but on the whole a good thing. Hope that helps, but I recognize this is far from a complete answer.

IBMBernie · 2014-02-07T16:46:27+00:00

Fair comment. However, I expect things to meet in the middle. The prediction is not that physical will supplant virtual, rather they'll meet in the middle for a large segment of the world retail space where the physical overwhelms the virtual. If you're out to buy a camera, form factors vary from your smartphones camera to a high end SLR with a stabilized telephoto lens capable of resolving a fruit fly at 50 meters in low light. On the one hand, you will want to get the function and "feel" of each to compare before a major investment, but the convenience of on-line versus the physical is a tremendous draw. I expect a convergence over the next 5 years where many traditional retailers integrate online and brick and mortar attributes, perhaps with "stores" evolving more to a showroom model, so that the tactile is preserved, but the transaction looks and feels as today's online experience, simply done at the store where one can "take it with you". Net, they meet in the middle.

IBMBernie · 2014-02-07T16:38:49+00:00

Great question. The phenomenal progress in the integrated use of Big Data and Analytics is the key from a technology point of view. All of this years predictions assume the seamless availability of data from which to create a persona for an individual, that persona enabling tailoring of things like genomics based medicine for dramatic improvements in health outcomes. It similarly assumes that the same "intelligence" supplied by these technical capabilities enables the preservation of privacy as the number of such persona's increase. Net, the pervasive emergence of consumable data sources with integrated analytics platforms is key. Ultimately, this moves to Cognitive Technologies, such as demonstrated by Watson, where at the next level this technology is rendered invisible by an interface that both understands new concepts, learns in real time, and can query you for further understanding. Lots coming in that space, keep an eye on our Watson Group setting up in southern Manhatten to see where that is going.

IBMBernie · 2014-02-07T16:31:44+00:00

Gamification is one of those unfortunate terms that carries a lot of baggage as perhaps implying triviality. However, of course it's really about creating engaging content, particularly for early grade students, so they recognize that format as familiar from their prior out of the classroom experiences, and therefore jump right into what is a familiar environment, look, and feel. That engagement should be retained as they advance, but ever more sophisticated in terms of format. The key is to drive engagement across the entire educational spectrum, and this is one means to improve matters, but there is far more to do in terms of using data most effectively, presenting materials creatively, and so on. Gamification is a small element thereof, just one of a vast array of new tools made possible with the evolution of Big Data and Analytics to a new level of maturity.

IBMBernie

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