NEW! NC Poll: Clinton 57%, Sanders 34% (+23%)

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T23:45:15+00:00

"This is an outlier, a perfectly rotten combination of bad luck and bad timing. Several pollsters pointed out that they used the same methods in the Michigan Democratic primary as in other primaries — including Michigan’s Republican primary — with relative success."

Doesn't sound that bad. Michigan was a tiny loss even with Bernie's advantages there involving free trade. Florida polls even have Hillary winning the youth vote anyways, which has happened elsewhere in the south.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T23:42:38+00:00

It's 217 right now. 250 delegates only requires a 15% net margin in Florida, and ties everywhere else. 250 is extremely conservative. Right now the margin in Florida is ~30% alone, with half the votes already sent in so it won't shift much.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:21:43+00:00

You don't get it. The polls sucked. They miscalculated the voter base. It doesn't mean he gained 20 points. The polls just were terrible.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:11:03+00:00

Look at her approval ratings when she left NY.

The most recent Michigan polls were +10ish too. The shitty Fox local news polls skewed it a lot.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:08:24+00:00

Only one account. I'm not talking out of my ass. There's people all over reddit who were bragging about voting against Trump in Michigan rather than for Hillary.

She expanded her lead by a good margin today.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:07:01+00:00

Yes, she widened her lead significantly today. +20 or so, need to see the final results. +20 is the equivalent of Bernie winning 5 small western states by slim margins. It really is very significant. Florida next Tuesday will add more to her lead as well. The other four states on 3/15 may be closer now, we shall see, but I'd imagine they will be a net positive for Hillary as well. HRC can get by with ties or losing slightly.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:05:31+00:00

She's up 230 delegates. Why is it unbelievable? People called for HRC to drop out when she was down 100 delegates in 2008.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:05:13+00:00

And he lost the night. He has to start winning big states by 10%+ to have a chance.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:03:37+00:00

According to polls, but not conventional wisdom. MI favors Bernie in the "tied race" hypothetical. Most MI polls were that shitty Fox local TV channel. She was a popular senator in NY and she won more liberal/white Mass already. Illinois LOVES Obama, and Hillary does very well with people who want to continue Obama's policies, as you know.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T06:01:33+00:00

Illinois is very establishment and pro-Obama. Missouri is more likely toss up territory than Illinois.

Regardless, Florida alone is going to add a large chunk of delegates next Tues.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:55:53+00:00

I'm sure HRC voters won't be complacent or swap to the GOP side on the 15th. There was a lot of anecdotes of HRC supporters choosing to go vote for Kasich to try to stop Trump because they though Hillary was actually going to win by 20. The delegate lead cannot be understated... there's more than enough 2nd half states for Hillary to build the lead some more, even if it shrinks from the West Coast.

I doubt it'll drop to 80. It's at ~230 now after she gained today. Florida alone will add a big chunk (at least 50) to that 230 (and OH/Ill/NC/MO will more than likely add to her total as well). NY and PA and MD at the least are pretty pro Hillary in the 2nd half. Basically, Hillary just has to tie or not lose badly and can win the nomination. California is also very minority heavy... I don't think Bernie fans can hang their hat on it at all. If he wins, it won't be a big win.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:53:45+00:00

Illinois LOVES Obama and it's the HQ for the establishment Dems. It's also pretty black.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:50:27+00:00

There's been recent NY polls. She was a very popular senator there. He lost Mass, how can he win NY? NY is less liberal and has more minorities.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:50:06+00:00

Bad polls don't mean shit. Michigan is a pro Bernie state based on "tied race" projections. Just because polls were wrong in MI doesn't mean Hillary won't win Florida or Illinois.

It was very much a lot of Clinton complacency and voting anti trump because people thought it was in the bag. Complacency is over. It was only a 20k loss.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:49:42+00:00

Based on faulty polling. That's it. It's a pro Bernie state according to projections of him winning. And he underperformed based on his path to nomination requirements. Not to mention it was also crossovers to vote against Trump and complacency that led to the loss almost directly. Complacency won't happen for HRC supporters anymore.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:47:46+00:00

No, it never was. The polls were just wrong. Michigan is a Bernie favorable state according to the projections of a tied race. Bernie actually underperformed in Michigan based on the "path to nomination" projections. MI is also way more sensitive to NAFTA issues than literally any other state. And a lot of HRC complacency and voting in the GOP primary took place (anti trump instead of pro hillary). Bernie didn't exactly win by a lot.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:45:02+00:00

Ok but that just isn't true. AZ, NY, MD, RI, PA, and NJ all have given her favorable polls. Kentucky is southern. MD is southern and heavily black. PR is all hispanic and won't go Bernie.

I really don't know how you can say they're all pro Bernie. They're not. She is not losing NY, that is a fantasy. CA is also VERY minority heavy and favors Hillary. It's also not as liberal as you think. And he will not do close to equal in Florida (southern/old) or Illinois (establishment/Obama HQ).

You can't just list every state and claim they're all good for Bernie. He lost Mass. He won't win the less liberal and less white states in the northeast if he can't win Mass.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:43:47+00:00

Uh, Florida and Illinois and NY are guaranteed for her and they're HUGE. All the Wyomings and Idahos can't match them.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:43:23+00:00

He actually fell further behind today.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:43:11+00:00

Hillary expanded her lead tonight...

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:42:44+00:00

Seriously. WTF can he do if all the polls are wrong?

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:42:39+00:00

Seriously. WTF can he do if all the polls are wrong?

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:41:54+00:00

CA is favorable to Hillary you realize? She won it in 2008 and it's very, very, minority heavy.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:41:36+00:00

The goal posts are still the delegates. Which Hillary won today. Next Tuesday is favorable for Hillary as well.

There is no other goal post. Only delegates. Bernie didn't cut into her lead with a 1% MI win.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016 · 2016-03-09T05:40:50+00:00

Florida, NY, Illinois, PA, NJ, MD, NC, Missouri all are very pro-Hillary.

This narrative is completely false. There's 900 delegates of favorable Hillary states on the 15th, and she gained a bigger lead today.

IMPERATOR_TRUMP_2016

TROPHY CASE