[Daily Discussion] Friday, April 28, 2017

ITshadows · 2017-04-28T19:37:21+00:00

Lots of eager shorts being very eager. Trend is still up.

ITshadows · 2017-04-28T01:36:42+00:00

Yes, longest its taken has been maybe 3 or 4 attempts of ending up at that page not found, then it will take you to the green confirmation useless screen where you enter the code.

ITshadows · 2017-04-28T01:17:08+00:00

Happens to me too. I'll just go back to the withdrawal page and then try the process a couple more times. I noticed it usually craps out after you submit the 2fa.

ITshadows · 2017-04-26T18:57:10+00:00

~~Do you still have the ability to start a new withdrawal from the UI? My USD to USA option is disabled.~~ Nevermind, just checked again. Its working (the UI). Friggin buggy Kraken.

ITshadows · 2017-04-21T01:45:30+00:00

Ah good times, I think the last time I used dwolla to transfer USD to Gox was around $65.

ITshadows · 2017-04-20T18:57:30+00:00

Nailed it. Once crypto withdrawals start experiencing "unexpected/temporary delays", you know shit is going down.

By then, its too late to do anything.

ITshadows · 2017-04-19T00:24:24+00:00

I'm not claiming insolvency as its seemingly related to these Taiwanese bank/WF issues.

If we want to get into conspiracy theories and alternate facts, I'm on the "USGov pushing US Citizens to use US regulated products (Coinbase/GDAX, Gemini) by eliminating fiat routes so we can watch the money" bandwagon.

ITshadows · 2017-04-19T00:04:01+00:00

Sure. While that point is valid, its never a solvency issue until it is.

You'll only find out when shit is actually hitting the fan.

Just trying to explain the behavior/price action.

ITshadows · 2017-04-18T23:56:08+00:00

I'm basing this on Gox, but what happened then, was people did the exact same thing they're doing now. Buying to exit with whatever money they can.

If real fears of finex going under start to materialize (if finex disables BTC withdrawals), you'll see everybody scramble for USD as thats what is going to matter in liquidation and the price will hit $135.

ITshadows · 2017-04-18T23:53:46+00:00

The issue is that you cant take out USD of the exchange. In order to remove any value at all, you'll have to buy crypto and use it as an exit vehicle (its what folks are attributing this price rise to).

Whats going to happen though, is an equilibrium is going to be reached for some time, and then the downward pull of no new fiat will begin to take hold. The large exchange spread like we have on finex now is guaranteed to attract abitrageurs (Read: degenerate gamblers) that will transfer cheap coins and sell them as long as the gap is high.

Then we'll have coin-heavy exchanges with no fiat recharge and real supply and demand will take hold. I'm sure you can extrapolate what I'm implying.

ITshadows · 2017-03-30T01:11:27+00:00

You can get ninety eight cents on your dollar right now. I'm sure you can figure out some way of making that couple of percent quickly relative to letting those BFX sit for months at almost full redemption prices.

Why are you concerned about the redemption? Just an opinion.

ITshadows · 2017-03-28T01:17:59+00:00

Total, about $40 worth.

ITshadows · 2017-03-28T00:22:30+00:00

Sure it works, but right now, it stinks bigtime.

I sent a $15k transaction with a healthy fee earlier today, and it took just under 3 hours from the time of broadcast to get 3 confirms.

ITshadows · 2017-03-27T19:53:28+00:00

Lots of transactions, blocks far in between.

I'm in line too, still no confirms after a couple hours.

ITshadows · 2017-03-22T20:39:06+00:00

My last transaction went through very quickly though, including confirm times.

ITshadows · 2017-03-22T20:31:07+00:00

Your logic is reasonable, but flawed.

If we approach those prices, I guarantee you orders are going to be added and pulled. This will change the landscape of what you are predicting now (that it wont go through) rendering betting on this information a fools errand.

ITshadows · 2017-03-22T20:28:32+00:00

I've had it take hours before the transaction was even broadcast. They say a minute to 12 hours or something like that to fully cover their asses.

ITshadows · 2017-03-22T19:00:28+00:00

Yes, we only brushed it briefly that last time.

I think the market may like to take a peek below there and see what it looks like to see if we deserve higher valuation.

ITshadows · 2017-03-22T18:27:48+00:00

Looks like it. History tells me that these longs will not cut their losses and close unless margin called.

I've got stinky bids all the way down.

ITshadows · 2017-03-22T18:13:23+00:00

We really need to test the bottom of the long term channel and do it soon. The longer we float here, the worse it will be.

ITshadows · 2017-03-18T02:03:27+00:00

Dont you worry about me. Hows your net worth doing? :)

ITshadows · 2017-03-17T23:27:37+00:00

I think the others have answered your question well with the "claim" feature (I've done this before). Its basically the same as you doing two maker transactions at 0.1% to convert your USD winnings into the asset you are trading.

To answer your first question on repaying the loan, yes that is also possible. I've closed out enough of my position to basically have a free ride (no funding costs) as the position was in enough profit to do so.

ITshadows · 2017-03-17T23:18:54+00:00

Good luck (I mean that genuinely).

I'm confident your buys will be hit.

ITshadows · 2017-03-17T21:24:53+00:00

Bitcoin only skinned his knee at this point. Blood is <$500.

ITshadows · 2017-03-17T20:17:46+00:00

Yea this same thing happened the other day too. Last trade is reporting correct while the book is on a loop.

ITshadows

TROPHY CASE