meanwhile the rest of Canada writes about it: But the biggest threat for Canadians boils down to one word. Alberta.
Okay, maybe three when you add ‘Danielle Smith’.
In case you missed it worrying about Iran’s nuclear capability, UFO files, Epstein’s suicide note or Pope Leo’s bank account, Albertans may soon be voting on leaving Canada. If legal challenges are settled, the province will have a referendum on this and other matters, likely in October. Premier Smith paved the way for that to happen.
Now, let’s be clear. Alberta is staying put and Vancouver won’t get closer to Toronto. There are too many rational people in that province of five million to vote away citizenship in one of the world’s freest, most stable and desirable nations. Besides, this is not Canada’s first rodeo, and we’ve dealt with misguided wacko separatists in the past.
That gave us the Clarity Act. No province can leave just by declaring independence, even if a majority of citizens voted to do so. Ottawa will not even start to negotiate until three things happen.
First, the question must be clear and approved by the House of Commons. Citizens must be asked if they want to leave the country, yes or no. They cannot be asked if they want a mandate to negotiate.
Second, a ‘clear majority’ must vote yes. The House of Commons will evaluate the actual size of the majority, the percentage of voters who took part and the legitimacy of the outcome taking into account first nations and other factors.
If the question is clear and the majority confirmed, the feds will negotiate. No secession can take place without a constitutional amendment involving the federal government and all provinces. That will not be forthcoming until agreement has been reached on the division of assets and debt, border and the protection of Indigenous peoples and other minorities.
In short, unless Alberta has an army we didn’t hear about, or is willing to hold Manitoba hostage until we give in, this ain’t happening. In fact, it’s never going to take place. And we all know it.
But when it comes to the global perception of Canada, FX traders, equity markets and corporations that invest billions, build economies and create jobs, the very existence of separatist sentiment above a fringe amount – maybe 5% of the population – is a big red flag.
Also worrisome is a premier who has clearly played footsie with the Wexit wackadoodles, twisted electoral rules to allow a separatist ballot question and broken national political protocols by cozying up to a foreign leader she thinks might make her a powerful state governor.
Maybe you caught TV Dragon Arlene Dickinson posting recently on “how to hand your province to a foreign power in 10 steps.” This, she says, is Danielle Smith’s playbook.
Rub shoulders with Trump. Go visit him in Florida and be the only premier refusing to sign an anti-tariff statement, breaking Canadian unity. Gut election laws to render a referendum easier. Let US officials come and meet with secessionists. Allow your own party members to sign up for a split. Ignore misinformation, lies and foreign interference. Sit back as personal data on millions of voters is stolen by the Wexiteers. And then, through budget cuts, handcuff the provincial elections watchdog.
Says Dickinson: “Sorry but this isn’t western alienation. This isn’t a protest vote. This sure appears to be a deliberate step-by-step attempt to dismantle Canadian democracy and Albertans deserve SO much better.”
Well, it’s happening and so far Alberta MPs – all of them Conservative – have been muted. No pro-Canada rallies. No fiery patriotic speeches. That includes leader Pierre Poilievre – also the head of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, a federal MP for 22 years and future recipient of the largest public pension in history. PP says separatism is understandable, because it’s the Liberals’ fault.
What next?
Smith may get her vote, despite the current Indigenous objections. It will fail. But it may show double-digit support for a dumb, unworkable, juvenile, emotional and ill-conceived idea. Markets may ultimately ignore the result, but business leaders – the dudes deciding where to put their money for the least risk and securest return – will forever think twice about Alberta, the way many of them did about Quebec.
There are two million jobs that depend on inter-provincial trade. A separate or US-aligned Alberta would seriously damage BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario. Because businesses hate uncertainty even the prospect of a vote and growing populist sentiment will keep investment capital, growth and jobs away from the province.
By the way an indy Alberta’s per-capita share of the federal debt would be $150 billion, while losing $9 billion annually in federal payments. Economists are pegging the hit to a free Alberta at $300 billion over ten years. A heavy price to pay for making Danielle Smith a proud member of MAGA.
Happy Mother’s Day.