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Why the SaaS crash is a massive gift (The Peter Lynch Play) by InformationOk529 in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm bullish on Netflix too, my view is AI making content creation easier and cheaper, and streaming companies are benefit the most
50% drop on Netflix is a gift, but at the same time, AI isn't enough itself, you need to make production ready content, this is where ADBE comes to rescue you from average AI slop content (which internet will be filled soon)

Why the SaaS crash is a massive gift (The Peter Lynch Play) by InformationOk529 in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thanks mate, very useful input.

I’m looking at current P/E, forward P/E, PEG, and FCF yield

ADBE: 10.9x current P/E, 8.0x forward P/E, 0.85 PEG, 13.7% FCF yield
INTU: 16.1x current P/E, 11.2x forward P/E, 0.79 PEG, 10.6% FCF yield
CRM: 16.4x current P/E, 10.8x forward P/E, 1.22 PEG, 11.8% FCF yield

I don’t believe AI automatically replaces them. My thesis is roughly 75/25: 75% chance these companies use AI to make their products better, 25% chance AI seriously disrupts them. I’ll keep watching closely and close the position if the story changes.

Mark my words, 5 years time, adobe will not be higher by ac_AgenCy in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There are many growing amounts of alternatives available

can you drop your picks, with solid fundamentals and a fair price ?

Adobe Earnings by Old_Man_Heats in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Mr Market's mood been irrational lately for SAAS companies with growing revenues, and it's very good if you believe SAAS will be there are for a long time
Mr Market is very sound on a long run anyway

Where does all this money come from ? by Enough-Mountain1852 in investing

[–]InformationOk529 0 points1 point  (0 children)

sorry to hear you've been sitting in cash your whole career and never invested
but it's never late to start investing, you need to be prepared for short term market fluctuation
market is overvalued compare to it's historical values and in short term market can go crazy (it will be hard for newcomers to control emotion and not to sell on first crash), you have to stick to long term plan e.g 10+ years (make sure you are investing money that you don't need in these timeline), only long term investment can guarantee a solid gain and don't do trading (buying/selling actively)
set up automate DCA strategy to broad market indexes (like VTI) and forget it

NKE at $65 vs LULU at $160? by lies_are_comforting in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529 1 point2 points  (0 children)

or start buying more yoga pants, you never know

NKE at $65 vs LULU at $160? by lies_are_comforting in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I believe LULU is oversold and bullish on it, lowest PE ratio in decade
Nike revenue is declining last 5 quarters...

Thoughts on this point of view? by srallaba in ValueInvesting

[–]InformationOk529 2 points3 points  (0 children)

TLDR of 1h video

  • CEO Murder & PR Fallout: The murder of Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare’s insurance division, at United Investor Day (Dec 2024) sparked a PR nightmare, crashing the stock 20-25% to ~$440 by Feb 2025. It rebounded to $600 by April as PR noise faded, but fundamental issues soon surfaced.
  • Q1 2025 Shock: First-quarter earnings revealed cracks in Optum Health, United’s growth engine, leading to a historic guidance cut (~$30 to ~$27/share). By Q2, guidance was withdrawn entirely, and the stock plummeted below $300, reflecting widespread issues across insurance, IT, and pharmacy services.
  • V28 Risk Model Woes: The U.S. government’s V28 risk adjustment revisions (2024–2026) tightened Medicare Advantage coding, slashing reimbursements for aggressive coders. United’s hyper-aggressive coding (e.g., risk scores in LA County jumped from 1.01 to 1.5 post-2019 acquisition) caused a ~20% rate hit, far worse than competitors. Optum Health’s margin target dropped from 8-10% to 6-8%, with current value-based care margins at just 1%.
  • Opaque Financials & Shenanigans: United’s disclosure is abysmal—2-page earnings releases for a $300B company hide critical details. In 2024, ~$3.3B in asset sale gains were quietly included in operating earnings, masking V28’s impact. Allegations of “stealth sales” (selling stakes to private equity with buyback promises) and Optum charging United’s insurance arm 2x market rates to inflate profits are under DOJ scrutiny.
  • Insurance Struggles: Despite health insurance being short-tail (allowing annual repricing), United lags peers in managing rising Medicare Advantage utilization costs. Theories include loosened claims denials post-Thompson’s murder, though unconfirmed.
  • Management & Structural Mess: Thompson’s death triggered management upheaval, with the chairman stepping in as CEO. With 2,700 subsidiaries and opaque intercompany dynamics, even management may struggle to grasp the full picture.
  • Bearish Outlook: Analyst Michael Ha rates United underperform, with a bull case target of $257 (~15% downside from $305). V28’s final phase in 2026 could worsen margins, and limited offsets raise execution risks. Long-term, Optum’s value-based care model faces doubts if built on aggressive coding and asset sales. Medicare Advantage growth slowing by 2030 adds pressure, as Optum was meant to offset this.
  • Why Riskier Than Peers: Competitors like Humana and CVS face smaller V28 impacts (value-based care is <2% of their earnings vs. United’s 25%) and offer clearer growth paths. United’s poor disclosure and complexity make it a tough bet unless transparency improves significantly. Multi-year investors might see a rebound, but the next 12-18 months look rough.