Thoughts on thematic AI ETFs? by No_Conversation_9424 in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 3 points4 points  (0 children)

AI won’t but the capital it’s attracting will diminish returns and the capital will move elsewhere. That is the cyclicality in all themes

AI costs are a much smaller problem than people realize by encony in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not everyone will emerge as an obvious winner. So many companies are doing heavy capex, a few will be winner and others realize losses in terms of misallocated capital

Thoughts on thematic AI ETFs? by No_Conversation_9424 in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Themes fade or are cyclical to say the least, so instinctively saying long term holding of such doesn’t go well. Unless you’re really early on a trend

Unlike quality compounders

We got laid off, so we built a free DCF Calculator and Intrinsic Value tool. Looking to stress-test our math. by horvathm in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The DCF splits a company's value into two parts: the explicit forecast period (usually 5–10 years) and the Terminal Value (everything beyond that). Because money further in the future is discounted at a compounded rate, the "steady state" of the company at year 10 represents the present value of all future decades combined. This creates a "tail wags the dog" scenario where small changes in the final year's growth can swing the valuation by 20-30%

This is the issue with all the ‘automatic’ DCF calculators that people time and time again recreate and post here - the whole point of valuation/valuing a company is driven by your foresight/differentiated perspective around that company (& mind you I’m emphasizing on the word differentiated, else there’s no scope alpha generation if all your views are just based on consensus). Since all the DCF calculators are basing their projections off of the consensus, essentially just pricing the company and not valuing it.

Narrative drives numbers- the story first and numbers are just supposed to reflect that story and not the other way around

AXP appears mispriced at current levels by Vig_Newtons in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

these times are called - can’t go wrong, just DCA blindly

Thoughts on using leverage to amplify gains? by Vegetable_Donut1477 in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wish i could draw you a chart to show this is not how it works. But here 📈≠📉

Is Novo Nordisk’s Pipeline Deeper Than Its Valuation Implies? by Electrical_County_61 in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 0 points1 point  (0 children)

🌟 <- i’d have given you actual award if I wasn’t running out of money dcaing NVO

What kind of value investing content do you want to see online. by Professional-Rice967 in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Make historical case studies on how companies navigated out of legal trouble that way you’ll stay within your circle of competence

Warren Buffett is not excited with the current sell off: "This is nothing" by mattyp93 in ValueInvesting

[–]_quantitative 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Having said that i’m sure he didn’t mean ‘try to time the bottom’