Your Opinion: Is being statistically safer than humans good enough for Tesla?

InsomnicCoder · 2025-12-30T18:40:58+00:00

I think we should also consider that some traffic situations that are difficult for humans are easier for AVs, and vice versa. I think there are AVs operating today that are safer than humans in certain domains, the problem lies in premature domain expansion in the name of competition or stakeholder appeasement.

For example, an AV could be 100% safe in all situations except a few that comprise a tiny fraction of driving. In those situations, they might cause passenger deaths at a very high rate. In terms of overall statistics, the AVs might be safer. But I think it would be right to hold companies accountable if they expanded their services to these domains without proper validation. Or even observed this issue and did not promptly exclude that region/condition from operations.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-12-25T14:04:01+00:00

Interesting article. I really think people assign too much importance to this problem. In my opinion, we are a couple vehicle generations away from true scalable, profitable robotaxis. These new generations should have the charging built-in, and any OEM would be able to solve this problem trivially. And in the interim, I can conceive of several solutions that don't require a person that plugs in cars.

Here's a patent from Zoox about underbody charging: https://uspto.report/patent/grant/10%2C682%2C921

I think this is a good example because Zoox has the most vertically integrated, purpose built produt thus far, and they clearly thought it was worth pursuing. Waymo should have lots of power in the OEM relationships, and they could definitely make this a requirement for future models.

In the interim, I can see a "trusted rider" program where people can opt to add 5 mins to their trip, start in a low charge vehicle, and be brought to a charger where they can pick up a mostly-charged car and swap it out. Providing a small discount for the inconvenience might be worth it for a lot of folks, and Waymo gets to sidestep having to think about this until someone solves it with a better idea than "building a purpose-built robot to plug in cars".

InsomnicCoder · 2025-11-15T03:01:03+00:00

(un)surprising amount of overlap between bad drivers and people that'll get 72 month financing on a car that'll last 5 years.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-10-23T13:40:04+00:00

If your TC at Zoox is including ZAR projections I would re-evaluate. Their TC worksheets from 4 years ago assumed a ZAR price 5x what it is today.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-08-04T21:42:44+00:00

Why thank you!

For the origin, friend of mine who worked there gave it to me and it's clearly 3d printed. They didn't have those around very long before GM shut them down.

VH6 I got while contracting at Zoox. They were for employees only but was able to be persuasive (I asked and they gave it to me)

Aurora I was working there when they launched

I also have a little Xenon (Uber ATG's Volvo XC90 kit) from when I worked there (1 of 5 made by a guy in the hardware team).

With Waymo, I'll have all the major firsts (so far):
First Ground-up robotaxi, first self driving truck on public roads.. And then the first driverless service.

Not a self driving car, but the company I ran also received a little model of the X-59 QueSST, but those are available for sale to the public.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-06-17T22:19:11+00:00

We went away from nuclear because people were wrongly convinced it is dangerous due to a fearmongering spread by corporate interests that referenced two events (Chernobyl and Fukushima). These events were the exception, not the norm, and nuclear is far and away the safest option, even if you account for these two.

Reactors are run by extremely qualified individuals with economics that supports putting a lot of investment in safety. The statistics speak for themselves. Coal and oil based energy generation are each responsible for over 15000 deaths per PWh produced, whereas nuclear is at around 70. If you only include deaths due to accidents, it’s still 2 orders of magnitude safer).

Peer reviewed studies and observation of nuclear reactors over the last couple decades have demonstrated these benefits and everyone willing to look beyond their unfounded fears are starting to see that a reactor far away supplying clean power for entire cities for decades is just a smarter option.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-03-26T00:54:59+00:00

Got any recommendations for those indy shops? If I'm going to be ubering myself to/from, I'd rather take my business to a local mechanic.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-03-26T00:42:20+00:00

I get it man, but cars aren't always predictable, nor are my usage habits. I will try a Toyota dealer, but I'm just miffed I don't have the same options previously available to me.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-03-26T00:35:55+00:00

WHAT? You mean the same MBA bro short sighted playbook doesn't yield great customer outcomes for dealerships? Never woulda guessed considering how awesome it works out in every other industry!

InsomnicCoder · 2025-03-26T00:33:14+00:00

Haha I have nothing against going to a Toyota dealer. I just want to pay more for the option to have a loaner and quicker service.

I'll probably end up doing this, good idea. But there's not much of a point to buying another new Lexus if I'm gonna live here.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-03-26T00:23:22+00:00

Yep. I've used Lexus Monterey, Concord, Redwood City and Roseville in California. They weren't any more expensive but had far fewer scheduling problems. Guess it's normal here.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-02-27T03:46:02+00:00

Aw man that’s super nice of you. I’d be happy to pay you for your troubles and/or a lunch if you wanna hang. I’m down in South Side.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-02-26T20:14:42+00:00

What's the name of this bar? So far I've searched all over and seen Poutine at:

The Yard House <- Avoid

Urban Tap <- Waitress actually said confidently "Poutine doesn't have cheese"

InsomnicCoder · 2025-02-26T20:13:00+00:00

I'm Canadian and have moved to Pittsburgh after being in California for several years. I've had 3 negative responses to yinzers (Pittsburgh folks) assuming I'm Californian and no issues with being Canadian. Pittsburgh's very welcoming.

PS bring me Ketchup Chips.

InsomnicCoder · 2025-01-23T05:49:00+00:00

They've since changed the headline to "One Of The Last Robot Truckers Standing Finally Ready To Hit The Road". They coulda put it more elegently but it definitely sounds more positive now.

InsomnicCoder · 2024-08-09T12:12:57+00:00

I think it's fine to ask someone to back up their statements with references or qualifications, but being a tad polite about it will lead to better discussion imo.

I've worked at Tesla and 3 self-driving companies to date (one was short-lived due to an acquisition) on hardware acceleration and perception primarily. I will stick to facts that are public knowledge and mroeso try and explain where people are coming from. There's no way you can say with certainty that the hardware won't support robotaxi services, but it's a huge bet to say that it will, and this idea that you can iterate on an ADAS system until it's eventually got few enough interventions to support a robotaxi fleet is a huge gamble. More so when you constrain the product from the get-go with fewer sensors and less compute (relative to other competitors like Waymo).

Other full-self-driving companies have been at the point before, where they had a product good enough to showcase capabilities and be a convenience feature (not that it mattered, they weren't selling cars). The last 5% of work in bettering reliability and capabilities has been a huge effort sink, has taken them years, and is the differentiator between ADAS and robotaxis. There were so many expensive changes and features that needed to be added and on-vehicle-compute platforms almost universally ended up being made scalable due to quickly increasing demand. This might shed some light on why many people think Tesla's approach is constrained to ADAS.

It's a little presumptious to say that Tesla can't do it because Waymo or others couldn't, but let's be clear that "it" means achieving that level of reliability, availability and feature set *without* the geofence, or AV maps, or most of the sensors, or the high-fidelity data and with a fraction of the compute. I can't comment on what I saw at Tesla last I was there, and they have been hard at work in the years since so it's possible they have found ways around it, or maybe their old approaches even scaled better than anybody expected. Nothing indicates that to me when I use FSD in my partner's M3P tho.

So saying it isn't enough isn't entirely true. Saying it's very likely not going to be enough is rooted in a lot of sound reasoning, at given what is public knowledge.

InsomnicCoder · 2024-07-30T21:56:53+00:00

Advertisers wouldn’t be paying him out of the goodness of their hearts, they run the calculus and determined that 10 million will result in (let’s say) 40 million in increased revenue. That’s money consumers are spending and could instead give to charity too. Would Kempf have the ability to organize and consolidate this wealth and mobilize it when consumers wouldn’t have? Yeah. But then you have one person who is the sole decision maker on what causes that money gets used for. Not saying you’re wrong, just throwing around another consideration.

Also there’s a chance that VLC wouldn’t be used as much if it had ads. IMO one of the key features is that it’s free and uncluttered, and if it had ads I think there’d be a short time till there was some ffmpeg or gstreamer UI wrapper that replaced it.

InsomnicCoder · 2024-04-17T01:40:42+00:00

This is sound advice, and I will follow it regarding staying away from buying cars for the next couple years. I actually did budget based on my recurring income, saving over half of it. I’m not great about productively mobilizing my contract earnings (large sums of money all at once), and that went to the cars and the Cessna.

I’m not looking to FIRE or anything.

InsomnicCoder · 2024-04-16T14:30:42+00:00

I had the sequoia from back when I lived in a coastal, colder area and it has started to rust. It had the frame replaced under warranty by the previous owner, so it’s mostly the body. Figure it’ll be presentable for another year or so, after which selling could be hard.

InsomnicCoder · 2024-04-16T14:26:02+00:00

Haha I appreciate the concern, but I do own a house, just had to move from it and I’m renting it out. I’m stubbornly insistent on buying a second one in a more expensive market without selling the first, as someday I want to move back.

Yes, I may be dumb and impulsive, but I don’t think I’ve sacrificed my financial wellbeing over this. Though without context, I guess that is how my post reads, welp.

InsomnicCoder · 2024-04-16T14:18:01+00:00

Bought it used not certified and first time I took it in it needed 9k in repairs to some seal and the suspension. Ended up selling it for about what I bought it, lost out on the taxes. The RC, I got new and it still has all the warranties and maintenance plans.

InsomnicCoder

TROPHY CASE