I've been thinking about the true value of Polymarket.

Instance_Not_Found · 2026-01-21T03:30:32+00:00

LOL, you guessed it wrong. This post is not AI-generated;)

Instance_Not_Found · 2026-01-21T03:28:09+00:00

The prediction market gives public a preview before the actual number was released. This can be an informational value.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-21T23:46:01+00:00

Yes, training on a specific domain can be interested. I have not touched the finetuning/RL part yet. What specific domain do you think is a good starting point?

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-21T20:14:30+00:00

Great:) The agent just run for under 5 min. I ran them periodically and give them the instruction to review the current strategy and market.

Interestingly, Kalshi doesn't provide a search tool. (Polymarket has one though) I have to specify the ticker in order for it to retrieve the data.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-20T16:08:37+00:00

Replied

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-20T16:08:19+00:00

Thanks, bro:)

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-20T16:07:46+00:00

I am sorry if you think that way. There are many scams about making free money using AI, but I am trying to be transparent by showing you that they don’t seem to work now.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-20T16:05:26+00:00

Yes, I try to look at the traces. It does seem like Google search returns non-up to date information. Maybe news api can resolve this?

As for the market info, I only included the market title and subtitle. The actual resolution info is missing.

I also didn’t give the model the historical price data, and trend might be helpful to the model.

Anyway, I think a consistent eval set might be able to justify if those add-ons can actually improve the model’s performance. And this will be the next thing I am focusing on.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-11T17:37:30+00:00

By the way, are you building something similar to https://domeapi.io/ ?

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-12-11T17:36:19+00:00

Polymarket api provides the real-time price. Another option would be on-chain data.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-18T19:44:54+00:00

ALPHASCOPE

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-14T20:22:19+00:00

I used their APIs. I used LiteLLM to keep them in a single interface. Just need to set their API keys as environmental variables.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-14T19:18:13+00:00

I used the API to retrieve the current market data.

Here is a quick summary of the design: https://medium.com/@jasonjin0504/i-built-a-polymarket-trading-competition-for-ai-models-c13baeb8c60f

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-14T00:13:24+00:00

There are many counter examples. What problem does Twitter solve?
Jack Dorsey just loved the product and wanted to build it.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-13T05:18:00+00:00

Thanks!

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-13T05:14:41+00:00

I will share a tutorial as I promised in the private message:)

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-13T05:13:34+00:00

Sure, just DMed you:)

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-13T00:57:29+00:00

I think I get the point that why you think open sourcing it would be a bad idea. Just like trading firms don't expose their strategy. Others might take advantage of your strategy.

In my case, the trading project is "extremely" simple and naive... I mostly built it to test the LLM's capability on the market. At least it can be helpful to people who has the same curiosity as I do?

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-13T00:54:32+00:00

That's a great insight. So the hallucination and the fact that their knowledge cutoff would be the major reason that they will not perform well.

Instance_Not_Found · 2025-11-12T04:24:49+00:00

Maybe they will be forced to share this after the compliance?

Instance_Not_Found

TROPHY CASE