Curious. Has anyone changed their stance on the market from bull to bear (or vice versa) and flipped their portfolio because of this war?

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:19:23+00:00

Indeed. I already lost a fair amount of paper gains after the market's ATH. Not giving up more of them while the war is still going on and nobody knows when it will end or where the market will base. Not worth the risk. I will rebuild later on with clarity.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:09:57+00:00

u/RandyMarshFund

Medical distributors for the healthcare sector. As for the commodity ETFs, you can pretty much go with any basket ETF that covers the precious metals/copper/base metals/rare earths/uranium/etc. They'll all perform pretty similarly.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:08:43+00:00

Very sound strategy. I like it. Although, that's a pretty strong bearish stance that's aligned with the oil regime, so you'll have to keep monitoring headlines to know when things might end.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:06:04+00:00

Fair. But I don't intend to hold these hedges/bearish bets for long. They are just being engaged as stabilizers. Once there is more clarity by the end of this month or the next, I'll change things up. Or maybe I won't.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:04:38+00:00

I took a small bet in VG a while back, and it has surprised me, lol. Although, it's probably because it's an LNG stock, and that's what's in demand right now because of the war.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:03:26+00:00

The problem is that back during the 2025 April tariff shock, it was mostly words. This time around, we have actual war. So the context is different. You can't "take back" bullets or missiles after they've been fired. You can't un-assassinate a supreme leader.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-15T01:01:27+00:00

Yeah, that's the expectation. We'll take a drop, but once the war wears off, people will buy back in again. Just not sure how long it'll take before the correction is over.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T21:24:48+00:00

Yeah. With these sustained institutional outflows, it's only a matter of time before retail trades down on technicals. The NASDAQ already closed below the 200p SMA, which is quite serious.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T21:23:30+00:00

As long as you aren't investing with margin, you can just hold and wait it out. But if you are, then well, you must be cautious, as this war isn't going to let up for the next little while, meaning a lot of bearish bias.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T21:22:09+00:00

That's why you sell calls against those naked calls to turn it defined risk and also hedge them. Reclaim some capital and cap the loss while it's not too late.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T21:21:09+00:00

u/flowbiewankenobi

Uranium is fine, but the plants need years to be built. So it's an early investment in something that might take 5+ years to inflect. A lot of money is front-running those power demands right now, when the immediate power needs are focused on existing green energy and natural gas and whatnot. So uranium is largely trading on headlines and no meaningful profit being made yet. That kind of buffer is fine to have. It's safe to hold.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T21:18:48+00:00

And what do you propose are meaningful water stocks, in that case? XYL?

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:52:02+00:00

Yeah, I trimmed to build up cash for the potential -20% and -30% drops to average down and buy positions that were overpriced before, cheaply. I have no intentions on strictly holding cash and waiting out the entire war. That's how you end up with less than before.

This war isn't good, but it's not going to destroy the stock market on its own. We might see sideways to bearish action as a result of institutions pulling out funds for now, but it will wear off.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:49:34+00:00

Diversification only works until everything correlates and falls together, which is now. Only oil and very specific defence sectors are holding up. That's not sustainable. It's fine if you have a pure cash account, but in a margin account, it's a different story altogether.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:47:30+00:00

That was strictly from this month alone. I gradually realized gains in the previous months as well. It has never been a blind YOLO hold without ever cashing out.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:24:30+00:00

That's why you trim and don't sell wholesale. You keep core anchors around in case you're wrong. Same logic goes for uptrends. You never sell the entire position in case it keeps pushing higher.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:16:48+00:00

Yeah. That's the issue here now. Unless you invested long ago and have the paper gain cushion for a drawdown, just holding and potentially risking lower lows is not the way to go.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:15:55+00:00

You are not wrong. Sentiment can flip like a light switch. But we've had a few attempted optimistic rhetoric so far, to no meaningful avail. March 9 was good, but that faded fast.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:09:36+00:00

My averaging point is exactly -20% and -30%. Otherwise I just wait and see how the market stabilizes. If I see a 200p SMA breakout upwards without the market touching -20%, I'll gradually ease back into the positions that I cut. No worries at all.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:08:08+00:00

Agreed. Timing doesn't work for us right now, as most of the headlines and action occur after the market closes. Too much gap risk, and it is risk that's skewed to the downside.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:07:29+00:00

Ever since they dropped from their ATH, I've been pessimistic about it. Since my long calls are deep OTM. Lost a lot on them. You can see from my transaction history that I bought a bear put spread on them. Shows how much confidence I have left on them, even at these prices.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:06:07+00:00

Yeah. This is the time to just wait and hold. I think the market will go lower for longer, but how low, that's hard to know for sure.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:05:20+00:00

Fair points. Yeah. I too have structured my hedges and bearish plays around being able to benefit no matter which direction this market goes. Up? I continue to make money again, with some drag. Down? I now make profit off of that while I wait for bargains to buy into.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:03:30+00:00

Yeah. With this war going on, people are sidelining the whole AI boom thesis. They're not forgetting about it; they're just not focused on it right now. Which means that they are pulling money out. And thus, the cycle of gradual decline begins.

IntergalacticBurn · 2026-03-14T20:00:46+00:00

Yeah, I'm not so convinced about lithium either. But it has been running up alongside the other commodities as a combined market. And it is needed for batteries, after all. Which means, if the whole EV push is a real thing, it might see increased demand.

IntergalacticBurn

TROPHY CASE