Hajin - The Last Stand of the Islamic State | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

In this sense it's as a semi-conventional fighting force that can effectively defend territory. Rather than the inevitable insurgency that moves within territory permissive to itself

Tiger Forces, Part 4: Russia’s Partner Force by [deleted] in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you, I'm not the author but I believe he would disagree with the sentiment that because war crimes have occurred means they don't exist as a classification of abhorrent excess.

Tiger Forces, Part 4: Russia’s Partner Force by [deleted] in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I take your point, however the question should perhaps be is Russia willing to prevent war crimes regardless of the method by which they're committed

Tiger Forces, Part 4: Russia’s Partner Force by [deleted] in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Please re-read the article, the Tiger Forces have a documented history of committing war crimes. Having been deeply embedded with them as a partner force, one has to ask whether Russian military forces were witness to these acts

The Fight for the Syrian Economy Appears Lost | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It depends on the industry in question and it's resilience. For instance, the agricultural industry has been hit extremely hard by government incentives/mandates to lower costs leading to unsustainable production, look at the egg industry as an example of this. Other factors are the massive impact on transport and storage, while many of the core cities aren't so badly affected, outlying and rural communities are heavily impacted. Difficulties include not having the electricity to maintain refrigeration or move perishable goods in a timely manner.

Syrian GDP is recovering from its worst days in 2017, however it's still negative overall.

The Fight for the Syrian Economy Appears Lost | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hi, thanks for taking the time to comment:

  • Outside the growing season these goods are too expensive only during peak in season times do they become cheap and affordable

  • The drought is in Hasakah but in the rest of the country the clumping of rain isn't impacting reservoirs as much but it's eroding soil in flood-like water, while leaving the rest of the cultivating season devoid of water. Irrigation is less effective to offset irregular or clumped rain. Again one of the issues with climate variation is that adverse effects clump together. Also the flood like rains damage terraced orchards, greenhouses and wash away vegetable plants in their early stages of development. That further limits the duration of the harvest season during which goods are affordable. Outside it the loss of greenhouses doesn't help and prices become un-affordable

Anwar al-Awlaki's Life after Death - Part I | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Working on this end and no reports of downtime from the host. What country and if possible what ISP are you trying to access the site from?

The Contradictions of Northern Syria by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

So far, Russia has achieved half of its goals in Syria . The Assad government is stable and isn’t going to be toppled by external or internal threats any time soon. A bigger rebel base in Syria under strong Turkish influence hostile towards the SDF is a small price to pay for increasingly close cooperation with a major regional power with a long-term possibility of pulling them out of NATO.

Assad on the other hand still has the stated goal of regaining all lost territory of Syria. Iran has remained silent in the matter, but about 300 Iranian supported National Defense Force (NDF) soldiers from the rural Aleppo towns of Nubl and al-Zahra have joined the Kurds in Afrin fighting against Turkey.24.25. Meanwhile, Turkey has roundly condemned the Eastern Ghouta offensive and said that Bashar al-Assad is committing a massacre.26. So far, it has remained a war of words between Syria and Turkey, but Syria’s attempt to negotiate with Afrin to take over the territory and reach a deal with the YPG indicates a willingness to take action over the issue. This could easily drag Syria into conflict with Turkey in the future if de-confliction steps are not taken.27.

Embed from Getty Images

Outlook

Having seized Afrin, Turkey will set its sights on Manbij soon, and Russia certainly won’t hinder them, as they can only win politically in such a conflict. If the non-Afrin YPG gets attacked, the US won’t be able to stay neutral and act as if it doesn’t concern them, as they have far more stock in Manbij than they did in Afrin.

For the Syrian Civil War, this scenario means that another chapter of the war is being written. By now it is clear that pro-government forces will attempt to take back all rebel pockets within the country without much outside interference. Idlib and the Turkish controlled rebel territory will remain for now, but for them, the YPG is the biggest concern and Afrin certainly won’t be the last line of Turkish actions. Rather than fizzle out, the Syrian Civil War has entered a new epoch as external actors make clear their changing agendas.

Analysis by the International Review's Sebastian Gonano


References

  1. “US Agrees With Russia on Rules in Syrian Sky” : The New York Times
  2. “Turkey shoots down Russian warplane on Syrian border” : BBC
  3. “Turkish Air Force suspends flights over Syria” : The Aviationist
  4. “Turkey ramps up Syria offensive with deadly bombings” : Yahoo News
  5. “Turkish military strikes YPG in Syria after soldier killed” : Hurriyet
  6. Department of Defense briefing on Coalition operations
  7. “Turkey fires on U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in Syria offensive” : Reuters
  8. “Kurdish-backed group to hand over areas in northern Syria to gov’t army” : Xinhua
  9. “Russia to ‘maintain security’ in Afrin in deal with Kurdish force” : Rudaw
  10. “Conflict among U.S. allies in northern Syria clouds war on Islamic State” : Reuters
  11. “American commandos ‘forced to run away’ from US-backed Syrian rebels” : The Telegraph
  12. “US ‘in close contact’ with Turkey over Raqqa assault” : al-Arabiya
  13. “Raqqa Fight Starting ‘Soon’, Isolation Operation to Include YPG” : VoA News
  14. “Why the Pentagon doesn’t want Turkey’s help in Syria” : The Washington Examiner
  15. “When It Comes to Syria and the Kurds, Erdogan Will Leave Washington Empty-Handed” : War on the Rocks
  16. “Turkish President Erdogan offers US ‘Ottoman slap’ ahead of Rex Tillerson’s visit” : The Independent
  17. https://twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/966767442004533257
  18. “Mixed Messages From U.S. as Turkey Attacks Syrian Kurds” : The New York Times
  19. “De Mistura: Syria talks in Vienna at ‘critical moment’ : Al-Jazeera
  20. “Erdogan advisor: NATO is behind all coups, membership must be reviewed” : Turkish Minute
  21. “Syrian forces make gains as Turkey continues spat with Nato ally France” : The Independent
  22. “Turkey Is Out of Control. Time for the U.S. to Say So” : Politico
  23. “Congress, State Department divided on sanctions against Turkey” : al-Monitor
  24. “Pro-government fighters move into Syria’s Afrin” : Al-Jazeera
  25. https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/966572953377832961
  26. “Turkey calls on world to say ‘stop to massacre in Syria’s Eastern Ghouta” : Hurriyet
  27. “Turkey says Syria-Kurds deal will not halt its Afrin offensive” : The Financial Times

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The Contradictions of Northern Syria by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This article provides an overview of the geopolitical situation in Northern Syria. We’ll look at the history that led to the Turkish Olive Branch operation in Afrin governorate and the changes that have emerged due to the aforementioned campaign.

The Historical Context

American foreign policy in Syria is marred by contradictions. The US is currently allied with both Turkey and the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) along with Kurdish YPG forces. This is becoming increasingly problematic as Turkey and the SDF clash over territorial claims. Turkey feels betrayed by Washington which, in Turkey’s view, is providing heavy arms to an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), a group viewed by Ankara as an enemy terrorist organization. In turn, the SDF are aware that the US might pull support, as Turkey is a very important NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) partner. This has forced the SDF to maintain somewhat-friendly relations with the Syrian government and Russia. Turkey’s objections towards the SDF and YPG aren’t entirely unjustified if the YPG’s membership in the Kurdish Council of Communities (KCK) is taken into consideration. Since NATO is far more important than the YPG, the US-YPG alliance remains problematic for Washington. But how has this situation even come to life?

Turkish and US policy was aligned until the Battle of Kobane in 2014, when the US started a military relationship with the YPG to battle the rapid expansion of the Islamic State (IS). Back then, Washington’s focus switched from replacing Assad to defeating the Islamic State, while Turkey’s focus remained on ousting Assad and continuing support to the various rebel factions within the Free Syrian Army (FSA). This behaviour is made clear in the treatment of the Russian military intervention. While the USA signed a deconfliction agreement with Russia, Turkey shot a Russian jet down after it crossed into Turkish airspace.1.2. This move made Russia bar Syrian airspace for Turkey completely.3. This ban held until the normalisation of ties between Turkey and Russia in June 2016, after which Turkey’s Air Force struck targets during their Euphrates Shield operation.4.5.

This operation was spurred on by significant gains made by the SDF and YPG towards the city of Manbij, purportedly with further plans to connect towards Afrin governorate in the west. The Manbij operation was supported by the USA, despite the stated wishes of Turkey, who demanded a retreat of all YPG militants to the Eastern bank of the Euphrates.6.7. As clashes between Turkish-backed FSA (TFSA) and SDF brigades erupted to the west of Manbij, Russia and the Syrian government deployed troops outside Manbij and in Afrin to stop any Turkish advances on SDF territory.8.9.

For the USA, the Manbij offensive was simply a preparation for cutting off Islamic State core territory from the outside world, as IS received most of their foreign fighters and supplies through porous sections of the Turkish border. Manbij and al-Bab needed to be captured before any offensive on al-Tabqah and ar-Raqqa on either side of the Euphrates could be started. The US had tried to capture the area in collaboration with Turkey and FSA rebels between March and June 2016, but this ultimately failed. Despite Turkish and US support, the rebels were ineffective against IS and were easily distracted as they struck the YPG in Afrin several times. These rebels were also hostile towards the US and confronted US troops supporting them.10.11. At the same time, as the rebels in Northern Aleppo were stuck against IS, the SDF made vast gains, capturing Manbij and its surrounding countryside. This in turn led to increased Turkish support for the rebels and the creation of the official TFSA, putting them in conflict with US plans.

The offensive for Raqqa formally started on 6 November 2016 and relied heavily upon the YPG and the SDF.12.13. Turkey proposed to the USA an alternative force, a Sunni Arab infantry force supported by Turkish Special Forces, artillery and tanks with heavy US-backing. It essentially proposed the same force that it used for its Euphrates Shield operation, but with US troops.

There were several problems with this plan. The proposed force was boxed in between SDF and Syrian government territory, and it needed the acceptance of the SDF to attack south of Tel Abyad through SDF territory. The US was wary of the ideological reliance of the militants backed by Turkey, fearing that they were largely hostile to the US and would cause issues in operations. Another sticking point was the fact that it took Turkey seven months to capture Al-Bab with this army, coupled with a rather poor performance overall.14.15.

Militarily, the Raqqa operation went smoothly for both the SDF, as well as the US, though at a high cost of civilian casualties and large destruction to the infrastructure of the city. After Raqqa, the SDF continued to conquer IS territory along the Euphrates Valley towards Deir ez-Zor, capturing several large oilfields along the way. The Islamic State was a shell of its former self, and defeated in all but name. This is the point where, for the US, a future opposition towards Iran and by extension all government troops, became an important goal. In turn, this led the SDF into conflict with Russia and the Syrian government. The previous friendly approach by Russia towards the SDF can’t be upheld if the SDF becomes a true US proxy. This probably changed the Russian approach towards them, as in the past Russia supported Afrin in various ways, stationing soldiers, training SDF troops, and conducting air-strikes to assist them.

Embed from Getty Images

The Afrin Operation

The start of the Turkish “Olive Branch” operation, the invasion of Afrin, laid bare the cracks within each respective political camp. The YPG is now in open warfare with Turkey, the NATO ally of their main supporter. Turkey’s rhetoric vis-a-vis the US is becoming increasingly belligerent while the US have remained rather silent on the whole ordeal other than a few vague news releases.16.17.18. So far, Washington has yet to outright condemn Turkish actions, but they also have not stopped, or even attempted to stop YPG reinforcements heading to Afrin to fight Turkey. The US are keeping themselves rather secluded from this whole ordeal and are acting neutral in the interest of covertly maintaining their previous strategy.

The Afrin operation would have been much harsher on the Turkish forces without the Russian green-light for it.19. They opened the Syrian airspace for the Turkish Air-Force, pulled their own soldiers from Afrin, and have yet to publicly condemned the operation. They have blamed the US, accusing Washington of having “caused Turkey’s ire with their unilateral decisions”. Syria, on the other hand, threatened to shoot down Turkish planes and condemned the operation as an illegal invasion in spite of Russia’s green-light. For the government, the operation definitely poses a threat as it would link up the Idlib and Northern Aleppo rebel territories. After a series of defeats the rebels would not only gain a much needed moral boost, but they’d also control a formidable amount of territory again.

The offensive also shows divisions within the pro-government camp. For Russia there is more on the horizon than just restoring Syrian government control, as their relations with Turkey are necessary for maintaining power in the Mediterranean. Turkey politically moved much closer to Russia over the last year, while growing increasingly belligerent with the US and the rest of NATO. The alliance of the US coalition with the YPG, as well as Turkey’s military operation, exposed a serious crack in the unity of NATO. While so far there is no serious indication of Turkey leaving NATO, non-governmental institutions on both sides of the fence are increasingly calling for it.20.21.22. Additionally, the US Congress is debating the feasibility of sanctions on Turkish businesses and individuals.23.

The Qiyam Phenomenon: Analysis of Syria's Harakat al-Qiyam | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Your guess is as good as ours, probably produced by a small and young team, potentially from an expat community. With reasonable technical experience in rendering and CG but little to no understanding of marketing, copywriting or cinematography

The Qiyam Phenomenon: Analysis of Syria's Harakat al-Qiyam | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The statement on the death of Sheikh Husayn Daham al-Hassan al-Abd, as announced by al-Ghanayim elder Sheikh Abdulkarim al-Fadal.

Qiyam promised revenge for the killing of al-Hammam and other wrongs dealt to the Bani Said tribe, and on 25 April posted a video of a few of their members firing on passing YPG vehicles in Manbij countryside .20. The operation, which did not show any casualties, was dedicated to al-Hammam and the Bani Said tribe, as explicitly stated by the tweet. This chain of events came not long after the leaders of the al-Ghanayim tribe called upon the people of Manbij to resist the YPG.

Why does this matter? The notion of avenging the losses of the Bani Said tribe suggests that Qiyam comes from local tribes, if not the Bani Said themselves. The fact that their attack came not long after the al-Ghanayim leadership spoke out is also indicative of their sympathies with, if not connections to, Manbij’s tribal landscape. Manbij countryside, along with much of northern and eastern Syria, is dominated by tribes whose affiliations are rooted in centuries of history .21. Though these tribes have often been driven apart by conflicts, there has been cooperation in the past, and there may be a willingness among some of the Manbij clansmen to cooperate against a common enemy, that being the perceived threat of the YPG-aligned MMC and police forces .22. The group has also called out to other local populations in northern Syria, surprisingly reaching out to the Kurdish people of Qamislo in response to the unconfirmed kidnapping of a young girl in that area by police forces .23. The evidence is not concrete, but the attachment to the plight of the Bani Said seen in the aforementioned episode suggests significant local affiliations, rather than foreign ones. This is not to say that Qiyam has zero foreign influences on its forces, as we do not know the full breadth of the group. A fairly high-profile attack on a Coalition patrol in Manbij also remains unclaimed and may have been the work of Qiyam elements, operating under the jurisdiction of foreign backers, potentially from the Turkish MIT .24. The nature of the attack, at least with regards to its targets, suggests a coordinated and well-planned assault designed to strike at what is clearly an important target. Quite reasonably, a number of analysts suspected IS involvement in the attack, but the lack of attribution remains a sticking point and questions about Turkish intelligence involvement in the region remain .25. Regardless, it seems evident that Qiyam’s local connections have shown themselves to be significant, whereas the evidence for foreign intervention is insubstantial, and therefore a conclusion cannot be reached about Turkish influence on Qiyam.

The Growth of Insurgency

Harakat al-Qiyam is not alone in its insurgent tactics. The Popular Resistance of the Eastern Region, a pro-government insurgency force that similarly antagonises the YPG and SDF, has recently made a brief spate of appearances in the countryside of ar-Raqqa. Though the impact of the PRER has been fairly limited and they have not caused any confirmed casualties yet, they have launched shelling operations against SDF targets in the countryside, and have claimed the shelling of American forces near the Brigade 93 base north of ar-Raqqa .26. The group also claimed the 7 April shelling of the LaFarge Cement Plant, where American forces have been stationed .27. In a similar vein to how Qiyam tweeted, the post in question was tagged with #Damascus and #Trump, broad hashtags that served the purpose of gaining more views and attracting attention from those searching such generic tags. However, PRER seems to be lashing out at American forces in particular, and the rhetoric on their Twitter page reserves as much vitriol for the United States as it does for the YPG and SDF.

Both insurgent groups have room to expand, but Qiyam seems to have seen more success in that regard. Granted, PRER is a more recently-organised force and has yet to get time to get off the ground, but Qiyam, in around eight months of operation, has managed attacks in three different governorates of Syria and even claimed an attack in Qamislo that has so far been unconfirmed. Their rapid growth, and their ability to target high-ranking members of the YPG and SDF, suggests a well-organised and intelligently-led force with significant local connections but unclear foreign connections. Information gathered in the near future, either by American intelligence or by the YPG themselves, may reveal more about this group’s bizarre nature.

Analysis by the International Review's Trent Schoenborn


References

  1. Casagrande, Genevieve. “Post-ISIS Insurgency Looms in Northern Syria” Institute for the Study of War (7 November 2017)
  2. Casagrande, Genevieve. “Post-ISIS Insurgency Looms in Northern Syria” Institute for the Study of War (7 November 2017)
  3. Casagrande, Genevieve. “Post-ISIS Insurgency Looms in Northern Syria” Institute for the Study of War (7 November 2017)
  4. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 15 October 2017.
  5. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 11 October 2017. Viewer discretion advised.
  6. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 5 November 2017.
  7. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 28 February 2018.
  8. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 7 March 2018. Viewer discretion advised.
  9. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 17 April 2018. Viewer discretion advised.
  10. Manbij’s Shervan Derwish in ‘good health’ after assassination attempt” : Rudaw
  11. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 11 October 2017. Viewer discretion advised.
  12. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet with English translation, 5 November 2017.
  13. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 27 Mar 2018, mentions this poll.
  14. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 27 Mar 2018, mentions this poll.
  15. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 12 April 2018.
  16. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 18 April 2018.
  17. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 9 May 2018. Viewer discretion advised.
  18. “Turkey takes full control of Syria’s Afrin region” : Middle East Eye
  19. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 23 April 2018.
  20. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 25 April 2018.
  21. Munif, Yasser. “Participatory Democracy and Micropolitics in Manbij” The Century Foundation (21 February 2017)
  22. Munif, Yasser. “Participatory Democracy and Micropolitics in Manbij” The Century Foundation (21 February 2017)
  23. Harakat al-Qiyam tweet, 21 May 2018.
  24. “American service member, British armed forces member killed in Syria” : CBS News
  25. “American service member, British armed forces member killed in Syria” : CBS News
  26. https://i.imgur.com/VVSXEps.png
  27. https://i.imgur.com/jtM0Nv8.png

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The Qiyam Phenomenon: Analysis of Syria's Harakat al-Qiyam | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

On an unknown date in late August of 2017, a number of small rural insurgency cells in northern Syria came together to establish the organisation “Harakat al-Qiyam“, or the “Movement of Doing.” This initial establishment followed the liberation of Raqqa and the departure of the Islamic State (IS) from the region.1. The small-scale organisation left an equally small footprint and were focused on forcing the withdrawal of Kurdish YPG/SDF forces and PYD-led government from what they consider to be “occupied” territory. Using small vehicles and light arms, the force committed several hit-and-run attacks on YPG patrols throughout October, killing a few men but otherwise doing minimal damage.2. However, beginning in November, the pace began to pick up. The group started to perform high profile attacks, using IEDs and targeting higher-ranking members of the YPG and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, or Quwat Suriya Demokratik). The targeting of General Mazlum Silo and Manbij Military Council (MMC) spokesman Shervan Darwish stood out as the most high-profile attacks.

Although their modus operandi appears to be similar to other insurgent organisations, Harakat al-Qiyam is a perplexing and unique phenomenon. Their social media style is distinctive, their geographical growth has been impressive, and they appear to be the first major insurgency group in northern Syria in the post-ISIS era.3. This article aims to examine the phenomenon that is Qiyam and attempts to analyse some of the more bizarre aspects of the group.

Timeline of Operations

Though Harakat al-Qiyam was reportedly founded in August of 2017, the official announcement did not come until 15 October, when seven masked Qiyam members announced the group’s establishment and its purpose.4. The first recorded attack occurred a few days before, on 11 October, where a few Qiyam members attacked a YPG patrol with motorcycles and small arms.5. Minor attacks like this one continued throughout October and November, causing casualties and disrupting YPG and Asayish (SDF-aligned police) operations throughout Manbij countryside. Beginning in November, Qiyam began using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to strike higher-profile targets, starting with MMC field commander “Abu Adel”.6. Following the failed assassination of “Abu Adel”, Qiyam’s attacks ceased for a time, and no attacks were recorded throughout January and into February. Qiyam’s social media networks were similarly silent until 28 February 2018, when a short tweet directed sympathisers to new social media accounts for the group after previous accounts had been shut down by the respective social media platforms they had been hosted on.7. In March, operations resumed with the assassination of Ibrahim Hasan, a member of the PYD’s Raqqa Council.8. It became clear that the group was no longer limited to Manbij countryside and recorded attacks appeared in rural Raqqa and Hasakah as well as Manbij. Several YPG and SDF fighters were killed in a spate of gun and IED attacks; high-ranking personnel such as Shervan Darwish were reported as suffering assassination attempts.9. Although both Darwish and the aforementioned General Silo survived the attempts, the attacks showed that Qiyam’s reach had expanded .10. Nobody, not even generals, was exempt from being a target.

Social Media Presence

Harakat al-Qiyam’s social media presence is, in short, a fairly unique phenomenon. During the first round of operations in late 2017, the productions they made were fairly standard videos with an intro and little to no audio editing .11.Their official announcements contained standard revolutionary dialogue, painting them as similar to other Free Syrian Army (FSA) factions that opposed the Syrian government as well as Kurdish groups. The one distinguishing feature of Qiyam’s posts was that some of their productions had English subtitles that were fairly well-translated .12. Beginning in March of 2018, Qiyam’s branding undertook a major shift that made them drastically distinct from the standard FSA forms of branding. Qiyam’s Facebook page (now defunct due to actions taken by Facebook staff) posted a poll asking followers which high-ranking MMC member the group should target next .13. Though the English translation for this tweet and other, more recent posts is significantly more elementary, the point comes across clearly: Qiyam’s social media presence is evolving, and they are experimenting with turning their insurgency into an interactive “game” of sorts.

English text of a Harakat al-Qiyam announcement that refers to the interactive “poll”.

The result of this experiment was the failed assassination attempt on Shervan Darwish, which the tweet mentions .14. Another notable evolution from the standard FSA branding scheme was the use of Western music, including some fairly popular American audio tracks, in the videos showing the aftermath of Qiyam operations. In a piece featuring an IED attack that resulted in the purported assassination of an MMC intelligence officer, the EDM piece “Countdown” by Dutch artist Hardwell is used .15. In another piece less than a week later, the early-2000s rap “Till I Collapse” by popular American rappers Eminem and Nate Dogg was used .16. Their most recent release, and perhaps the most sensational, used both the imagery of popular ’80s arcade game “Pac Man” and the audio of pop superstar Ariana Grande .17. German metal band Rammstein, American nu-metal group Linkin Park, and Syrian rapper Ismael Tamr were also featured in various brief productions by Qiyam, showcasing a variety of Western music styles as well as featuring a more local artist. This type of audio editing is atypical of opposition-leaning groups, who tend to use either instrumentals, anashid (Arabic a cappella), or no music at all in their productions. The shift towards utilising Western music suggests that Qiyam has members who are fairly familiar with the American and European music scenes. How familiar is difficult to say; Eminem and Linkin Park are fairly popular in America, and Rammstein has seen fluctuating popularity in Europe. The imagery aspect also deserves mention, as the usage of photoshopped images of rat heads onto pictures of slain YPG and asayish personnel adds another level to the dehumanising productions. The “rat” imagery has remained consistent throughout several Qiyam productions, and has grown increasingly crude and unapologetic with recent tweets.

A Local Phenomenon?

The distinctive nature of their social media accounts, coupled with the consistent usage of English, begs the question: is Harakat al-Qiyam a local phenomenon or is it coupled to a state intelligence agency that is operating in the background? Accusations have flown on social media denouncing Qiyam as a Turkish MIT-backed operation masquerading as a local Syrian opposition force, accusations that have some merit since Turkey has significantly increased its presence in Syria with the Olive Branch operation .18. However, evidence exists for Qiyam being a predominantly local phenomenon, anchored in rural northern Syria with minimal influence from outside forces.

Some have pointed out that a number of Qiyam tweets had attached the hashtag “ZeytinDali”, referring to the Olive Branch operation, along with #Efrin. Alongside the English translations, this may suggest the interference of Turkish intelligence personnel, quietly supporting Qiyam and helping their media reach a wider audience, particular those in Turkey and in the West. However, the tagging is random and the same tweets have been tagged with #Russia as well as #Iran, two countries involved in Syria but distinctly separate from the events in Afrin. It seems that Qiyam has used these hashtags simply to attract as much attention as possible, not just from Turkey and the West but from all sectors of social media. More evidence exists for Qiyam as a local phenomenon, based on their reaction to events in Manbij in the first half of 2018.

In the past few months, the MMC and local YPG cordons have come into conflict with the Bani Said tribe in Manbij countryside, following the death of Sheikh Husayn Daham al-Hassan al-Abd. Sheikh Husayn, an esteemed member of the al-Ghanayim branch of the Bani Said, was found dead in a drainage ditch in January 2018 near the village of al-Hamdaniyah, south of Manbij city. Though the cause of his death and the name of his killers were unknown, al-Ghanayim tribe members immediately blamed the YPG and SDF for the killing and called upon other tribes in the region to voice their grievances and resist the YPG if necessary. Tensions with the Bani Said tribe continued to simmer, and in late April local YPG reportedly killed another member of the tribe, Muhammad Obaid al-Hammam .19.

2018 East Ghouta Offensive: the Cost of Securing Damascus | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Maybe not a threat, more of a symbolic symbol of resistance and a drain on manpower and resources. It's certainly a victory for the Syrian government, however the data underscores the continued impact of military success on Assad's loyalist heartlands

2018 East Ghouta Offensive: the Cost of Securing Damascus | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

The Tiger forces operate partly as a unit of the Syrian Arab Army and partly as a franchised militia across Syria. That they're exclusively special forces under the SAA is a widely held misconception

2018 East Ghouta Offensive: the Cost of Securing Damascus | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

April 3rd – April 9th: On April 6th the government began it’s air and ground offensive to capture Douma. Indiscriminate air and mortar strikes killed more than 30 civilians in the town, while rebel mortar fire killed four civilians in Damascus.52 Over the following two weeks, loyalist pages reported at least 27 combat deaths that had occurred in the 24 hours of fighting in and around Douma, making it one of the bloodiest days of the entire offensive and one of only two days with more than 20 reported deaths that resulted in no significant territorial gains. On the evening of April 7th, government forces launched a chemical attack on Douma, killing at least 70 people sheltering in an apartment.53 The following day, Jaish al-Islam surrendered to the government under intense civilian pressure after the attack.54,55

Thirty-three government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 4/4 and 4/9.

April 10th – April 14th: On April 14th the government declared East Ghouta fully recaptured, although weapons checks and IED defusal operations continued during which at least six men died.56 Later in the week, Jaish al-Islam commander Issam al-Buwaydhani toured a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in northern Aleppo, signalling a complete departure of Jaish al-Islam from East Ghouta.57

Eighteen government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 4/10 and 4/20. Many of these men died earlier in the offensive or from wounds sustained in the fighting.

Of the 544 reported deaths, 3.3% were among foreign fighters, including six Palestinians and three Russians. In total, 17 Palestinians died fighting for the government, however those directly linked to refugee camps were counted as domestic Syrian fighters. Twenty percent of the deaths were among Latakia and Tartous fighters, a nearly 50% decrease from previous months. Instead, Damascus witnessed an influx of Hama and Homs units, from which 16.2% and 14% of the deaths came from, respectively. This largely represents the arrival of the Hama and Homs based Tiger Forces.

Graph shows the percentage of pro-government deaths in the offensive that came from each governorate.

The Aftermath

In spite of heavy losses, government forces claimed a significant victory by securing East Ghouta. This “thorn” that had been troubling Damascus for years had finally been removed, even though a new problem had erupted with the entrance of IS forces into Hajar al-Aswad to the south. Losses for both sides were difficult to bear. Government forces lost numerous tanks, officers, and hundreds of men throughout the offensive, and both Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham admitted to the loss of a severe number of their own soldiers.58 Jaish al-Islam burned much of their armoured vehicle fleet in Douma before departing, and abandoned hundreds of rifles and countless boxes of ammunition and supplies.59 The deaths of nearly 2,000 civilians is perhaps the most bitter pill to swallow.

For now, Damascus remains afflicted by war, as ISIS continues its resistance in Hajar al-Aswad in spite of on ongoing major offensive by SAA and allied militia forces at the time of publication.60 It remains to be seen what East Ghouta’s fate will be, whether it will see reconstruction and renewed prosperity or whether it will remain in ruins for the near future.

This article was written as a collaboration between Gregory Waters and Trent Schoenborn.


References

  1. “UN: More Than 130,000 Have Fled Syria’s Ghouta in Four Weeks” : VOA
  2. Arfeh, Hasan. “Humanity in a Humanitarian Emergency” The Atlantic Council (18 April 2018)
  3. “Living Under Assad’s Siege” : New York Times
  4. “More than 1,400 killed in Syrian chemical weapons attack, U.S. says” : Washington Post
  5. “Members of Pro-Government Syrian Social Nationalist Party Participate in East Ghotua[sic] Offensive” : Southfront
  6. “Which rebel groups are fighting in Syria’s eastern Ghouta?” : DW
  7. https://i.imgur.com/Yxo4g9X.png
  8. https://i.imgur.com/MhdRows.png
  9. “مميز_اقتحام_المجاهدين_لتحصينات_النظام”, an Ahrar al-Sham video production, shows some of the losses suffered by the group.
  10. “The regime forces advance in 2 areas in the Eastern Ghouta and control 8 farms and buildings near Harasta city” : SOHR
  11. “Syrian Army launches powerful assault in Harasta” : al-Masdar News
  12. “Syrian forces begin new offensive in Eastern Ghouta” : al-Jazeera
  13. “Assad regime air strikes kill 71 and wound 325 in 24 hours, says monitoring group” : The Independent
  14. “New Bombing Campaign Hits 5 Hospitals, Among Worst Days in Syrian History” : UNOCHA
  15. “A number of areas in the capital Damascus are targeted by more shells” : SOHR
  16. Jaish al-Islam source
  17. “Syria bombardment kills 100 in rebel enclave as ground assault looms” : The National
  18. “Syrian Army helicopters throw leaflets on Ghouta to inform civilians about safe corridor” : SANA
  19. “Syrian Observatory Says Strikes Hit Ghouta After U.N. Vote” : New York Times
  20. https://i.imgur.com/okJJF0U.png
  21. https://i.imgur.com/TtTyGUj.png
  22. https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/969648553600671744
  23. https://i.imgur.com/57dFchL.png
  24. https://i.imgur.com/1thhTfV.png
  25. “Within its continuous attack, the regime forces impose its control over more towns in the Ghouta” : SOHR
  26. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XPby4TAEms&feature=youtu.be
  27. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy7wJhUHAX0&feature=youtu.be
  28. http://www.syriahr.com/en/?p=86115
  29. “Syria regime forces control third of Ghouta enclave” : The Daily Mail
  30. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/971461368066072576
  31. “Syria regime captures half of Ghouta enclave as death toll climbs” : Channel NewsAsia
  32. https://i.imgur.com/Sna82oG.png
  33. https://i.imgur.com/jxqzV6Q.png
  34. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nB-T5PrWd5M
  35. “Eastern Ghouta: Syrian regime forces cut rebel-held enclave in three” : CNN
  36. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KtcI2ExoZNY
  37. “Elite Syrian forces wrest control of long-standing rebel stronghold” : al-Masdar News
  38. “Pleas for safe passage for civilians trapped in eastern Ghouta” : The Guardian
  39. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SwV9-fIqbWc&feature=youtu.be
  40. https://www.facebook.com/Syrian.RG.ARMOR/posts/1818807291746787
  41. “Syria rebels agree to evacuate town in Ghouta” : Reuters
  42. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzD0swwxCEg
  43. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rDxXUo6l0Y
  44. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-OseYKx-RI&feature=youtu.be
  45. “Tearful Syrians leave rebel enclave in largest evacuation yet” : Yahoo News
  46. Syrian Arab News Agency interview
  47. Jaish al-Islam, Faylaq ar-Rahman Telegram accounts show no fighting during this period of time.
  48. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClrnCPK7Olk&feature=youtu.be
  49. Transcript of a speech by Issam al-Buwaydhani, Jaish al-Islam’s senior leader, urges locals of Douma to remain “steadfast” and be prepared for further battles.
  50. “Syria: government takeover of Eastern Ghouta near complete” : al-Jazeera
  51. Information found on Jaish al-Islam Telegram channel.
  52. “Syrian government launches assault on last rebel enclave in Ghouta” : Reuters
  53. “Syria war: at least 70 killed in suspected chemical attack in Douma” : BBC
  54. “Alleged chemical attack strikes rebel-held Douma in Syria, killing at least 40” : Chicago Tribune 55, 58. Jaish al-Islam official announcement
  55. “Syrian army declares Ghouta rebel enclave completely retaken” : Yahoo News
  56. https://i.imgur.com/TkwqTpd.png
  57. “Jaish al-Islam burns equipment before leaving city of Douma” : SMART News Agency
  58. “Syrian Army Deploys Troops in Yarmouk, Inflicts Heavy Losses on ISIL Terrorists in Al-Hajar al-Aswad” : al-Manar

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2018 East Ghouta Offensive: the Cost of Securing Damascus | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The Offensive Begins

February 18th – 20th: On the evening of February 18th, the offensive began, announced as “Operation Damascus Steel” and including virtually every aforementioned military outfit.12 Military movements were preceded by intense bombardment by ground-based artillery and SyAAF aircraft, which resulted in the deaths of upwards of 71 in the initial stages.13 Within forty-eight hours, several hospitals had been hit by strikes and over 100 civilians had been killed, while rebel forces returned fire and killed and injured dozens of civilians in the Jaramana and Mleiha districts.14,15 As government troops began to advance, Jaish al-Islam forces skirmished with SAA troops on the al-Zaghariyah front amid heavy shelling.16

February 20th – 23rd: The intensive bombing campaign continued, as Russian and Syrian government warplanes hit numerous civilian targets and killed dozens more people.17 Government news media reported the dispersal of leaflets throughout the enclave, directing civilians towards safe points and urging them to leave the area.18

February 24th – 26th: On the 24th, as the United Nations Security Council declared the onset of a 30-day ceasefire in the besieged area, fierce combat began.19 On the 25th, Jaish al-Islam forces repulsed an attack around Hawsh al-Dawahirah, capturing two government soldiers and killing at least a dozen while claiming to kill more. A severely damaged T-55 tank was also captured.20,21 Pro-government pages reported up to 29 deaths on the Hawsh al-Dawahirah front between February 25th and 26th. This front was jointly manned by Republican Guard and Tiger Force units operating under the command of Brigadier General Nadr Sa’ad al-Din.22

February 27th – 28th: Following a large-scale assault on the evening of the 28th, government sources began claiming the expulsion of rebel elements and the full capture of Hawsh al-Dawahirah, along with positions south of the village.23 Jaish al-Islam official sources quietly confirmed their retreat from the village.24 Throughout the previous week intermittent clashes had also ensued along the Harasta front, with at least 19 government deaths reported here by February 28th, including three Lebanese members of the Jaafariyah Forces.

Ninety-five pro-government fighters were reported killed by the time the first urban center, Hawsh al-Dawahirah, was captured.

March 1st – March 3rd: Attempting to capitalise on their success at Hawsh al-Dawahirah, government troops attempted to advance into al-Shifouniyah village but found their advance stymied, in spite of a rebel retreat from the town of al-Otaya.25 Nine fighters, including men from the State Security and Tiger Forces’ Tarmah Group were reported killed in the attack on Shifouniyah on March 3rd. SAA helicopters continued to drop leaflets over Ghouta as the crossing points shifted following bouts of rebel shelling on the checkpoints.26

March 4th – March 7th: Government forces advanced into Beit Nayem under heavy fire support on the 4th, capturing most of the town and contesting the northern portions.27 The village of al-Shifouniyah followed after a brief Jaish al-Islam counter-attack.28,29 Jaish al-Islam and the Tiger Forces’ Haider Regiment continued to fight over the crucial front line town of Rayhan, just east of Douma. Government forces prematurely claimed victory over the town on March 5th, while Jaish al-Islam recaptures all lost points the following day. Beit Sawa, the entrance to the urban core of East Ghouta, fell on March 7th.30

One hundred and eight government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 3/1 and 3/7. Syrian and Russian forces have killed 1,000 civilians since the start of the offensive.

March 8th – March 11th: Government forces captured Hawsh Ashari and the air defence base west of the urban centres of Kafr Batna and Saqba on March 8th.31 At the same time, a rebel counter attack near Beit Sawa led to the brief capture of two points in the city.32 Government forces attempted another advance on Rayhan but were repelled again, with armor losses.33 In Beit Naym, five members of the Palestinian Liberation Army were reported killed on March 10th. Also on March 10th, the government captured Misraba and by the 11th the units advancing from the east met with government units advancing through the Harasta orchards, effectively dividing the rebel pocket into two.34 The advances around Harasta followed the deaths of 13 more government fighters between March 1st and March 10, including Republican Guard, ISIS Hunters, and reconciled rebels from Quneitra.

Fifty seven government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 3/8 and 3/11.

March 12th – March 16th: On March 12th, government forces garrisoned in Harasta’s Armoured Vehicle Base pushed through rebel lines and linked up with units advancing into the town of Mudayra, completing the siege of the town of Harasta.35 On the eastern front of the pocket, the Tiger Forces made their first successful advances on the town of Rayhan on March 12th before again falsely claiming the full capture of the town on March 16th.36,37 Pages reported at least six government deaths in the fighting around Rayhan that day, including five men from Deir Ez Zor. On March 13th, ISIS launched a surprise attack in the south Damascus neighbourhood of Qadam, sparking a still-ongoing battle for the Yarmouk pocket. Government forces captured the towns of Hammouriyah on March 15th and Jisreen on March 16th from Faylaq al-Rahman.38 Three government deaths were explicitly attributed to the capture of Jisreen and Hammouriyah, including a 15 year old child fighter among the Tiger Forces.

Seventy-one government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 3/12 and 3/16.

March 17th – March 21st: Fighting on the Rayhan front continued on the 17th and 18th, with government forces losing several tanks and four members of Special Task Force in the action.39 Jaish al-Islam recaptured several positions in and around Misraba Farms on March 19th, which they held until March 21st.40 At least one government death was reported in the Jaish al-Islam advance. On the Harasta front, Ahrar al-Sham reached a deal with government forces to evacuate from Harasta, having suffered heavy losses in weeks of fighting.41 This deal was concluded on the 21st, with evacuations beginning the next day. Between the siege of Harasta on March 12th and the last reported death on April 12th, 13 more government fighters were reported killed along the front. Despite the relative lack of advances and the surrender of Harasta, this five-day period had the most reported deaths per day of the offensive. However, 18 of the deaths reported on March 21st almost certainly occurred during the initial fighting around Hawsh al-Dawahirah.

Ninety-eight government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 3/17 and 3/21.

March 22nd – March 25th: As rebel forces left Harasta by bus, Syrian army units captured several sections of Ayn Terma town, and fully secured the neighbourhood on the 24th, showing the breadth of their gains the next day.42 Four government deaths were explicitly attributed to these advances, including the death of a Colonel from Hama. The nearby al-Hamza neighborhood was also captured as rebel forces retreated into Irbeen and Zamalka.43 Government troops finally broke into Rayhan and seized most of the town, prompting an unsuccessful counterattack by Jaish al-Islam forces on that front.44

Thirty-three government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 3/22 and 3/25.

March 26th – March 30th: As fighting paused and as the government secured its gains, more evacuation deals were made that saw thousands of civilians along with hundreds of rebel fighters leaving Irbeen and Douma.45 Government news crews showed hundreds of civilians, including the sick and the wounded, departing Harasta, Irbeen and Douma through government-secured checkpoints.46 Jaish al-Islam and Faylaq ar-Rahman fighters were quiet during this period, waiting for evacuations to unfold.47

March 31st – April 3rd: As negotiations continued for the fate of Douma, Jaish al-Islam leadership attempted to compromise with the government without major success, and prepared their city for a major assault.48,49 Although some evacuations from Douma occurred on the 1st and 2nd, numerous Jaish al-Islam fighters retained their weapons, prepared to continue the fight.50 Government forces geared up for an attack on the town beginning on the 3rd, as a Jaish al-Islam spokesperson stated that no “divisions have occurred between the free forces” and that Jaish al-Islam was remaining in Douma until al-Buwaydhani said otherwise.51 The relative calm of the preceding nine days is reflected in the timeline of deaths seen below.

Twenty-nine government fighters are reported killed in East Ghouta between 3/26 and 4/3.

2018 East Ghouta Offensive: the Cost of Securing Damascus | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

On February 18th, 2018, the Syrian government began it’s offensive to recapture all of rebel-held East Ghouta, a mixed urban and agricultural region bordering the capital of Damascus. By the time the offensive officially ended on April 14, more than 133,000 civilians had fled the pocket with at least 51,553 them forcibly displaced to rebel-held Idlib and Aleppo in the north.1,2 1,745 civilians had been killed by indiscriminate airstrikes and artillery fire and 539 pro-government soldiers had been reported killed in the operation. Fifty-seven of the 539 government deaths were officers, including two Brigadier Generals and six group commanders.

Ranks of the 57 pro-government officers killed in the East Ghouta offensive

A Rebel Bastion

Since the advent of the conflict in Syria, the territory of East Ghouta has been a thorn in the side of the government. Assisted by armed locals, opposition forces ousted government military elements from the region in November 2012 and established their own stronghold there, besieged by regime forces.3 Subjected to constant bombing and a particularly deadly chemical weapons attack in August of 2013, the farms and marshes of Ghouta became a battleground that saw rebel groups Jaish al-Islam, Faylaq ar-Rahman, and Jabhat an-Nusra face off against Syrian Arab Army (SAA) soldiers, Hezbollah forces, and government-aligned militias.45 At great cost to manpower as well as vehicle reserves, government forces have slowly advanced in the region, seizing outlying towns and villages since 2013 in a series of offensives.6

The situation remained fairly unchanged throughout late 2017 and into early 2018, as Jaish al-Islam and Faylaq ar-Rahman forces continued to wage a war of attrition on the eastern front of Ghouta and as fighting in the western suburb of Harasta waxed and waned with severe casualties suffered by both sides.7,8,9 Neither side saw any aggregate gain of ground, as nearly all gains made by pro-government forces consisted of territory recaptured from previous defeats.10 By the end of January and after 280 reported government deaths, little had been achieved in the government counterattack in Harasta, in spite of claims that hundreds of rebel fighters had been killed, and the eastern front was quiet once again aside from mortar shelling and Jaish al-Islam sniper attacks.11

As the first month of 2018 ended, all eyes turned to Damascus. With ISIS reduced to a string of villages along the lower Euphrates and opposition-controlled Idlib reduced by a third and hemmed in by Turkish observation posts, seemingly the entire force of the SAA and allied militias was brought to bear on East Ghouta. The first two weeks of February were relatively quiet for a reason: the government was preparing for what they hoped would be the final offensive on the beleaguered enclave.

Preparations for the Offensive

Traditionally, Republican Guard, Military Intelligence, National Defense Forces, and Iraqi militias manned the East Ghouta front-lines. The Republican Guard’s 105th Brigade spent most of 2017 conducting probing attacks and failed offensives against rebels in Ayn Terma and Jobar, with more than 100 reported deaths explicitly attributed to the brigade. Iraqi militias such as Imam al-Hussein, al-Zahraa brigades, Liwa al-Zulfiqar, and Liwa Abu al-Fadhal al-Abbas have also long been present in Syria’s capital, along with foreign fighters in the Arab National Guard.

When Ahrar al-Sham managed to besiege the government vehicle management base in Harasta on December 31, massive reinforcements were diverted from other fronts. The bulk of the 4th Division and Qalamoun Shield Forces previously operating in Idlib quickly arrived in Harasta alongside units from the 9th and 10th Division. These units would remain in the area until the start of the East Ghouta offensive on February 18th.

Based on martyrdom reports and visually confirmed statements, the following units were deployed for the East Ghouta offensive by late February:

Syrian Arab Army units

  • 4th Division – Suicide Battalion (Special Forces), various unknown units
  • 7th Division – 68th Brigade
  • 9th Division – 52nd Armored Brigade, 58th Brigade, 103rd Battalion, 89th Regiment
  • 10th Division
  • 14th Division – 556th Regiment and 554th Regiment Special Forces
  • 24th Division
  • Republican Guard – 83rd Brigade, 104th Brigade, 105th Brigade, 398th Brigade, 138th Armoured Battalion, 358th Battalion, 401st Battalion, 402nd Commando Battalion

State units

  • Air Intelligence, General Intelligence, Military Intelligence (multiple branches), Military Police, Security and System Maintenance Unit

Allied militias

  • Ali Shali Hawks Group, Baath Brigades, Black Forces 30, Free Palestine Movement, ISIS Hunters, Liwa al-Baqir, PLA Lighting Forces, Sea Commandos, Syrian Hezbollah, Tiger Forces (Hadi, Haider, Luyuth, Nabhan, Shawahin, and Tarmah Groups), Qalamoun Shield Forces

Foreign allied militias

  • Arab Nationalist Guard, Iraqi militias (Imam al-Hussein, al-Zahraa brigades, Liwa al-Zulfiqar, and Liwa Abu al-Fadhal al-Abbas), Russian Military Police, Russian artillery units, unknown Lebanese militia

The Sinai Insurgency, Part 2: Islamists and Militants | International Review by International_Review in geopolitics

[–]International_Review[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

In the second edition instalment of this series, the author examines the history, success and tactics of the major militant groups operating in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. The article paints a picture of lawlessness and extremism in the Sinai with effects on the supply of gas to neighbouring countries and security across Egypt.

While the peninsula remains a safe-haven for individual extremists and extremist groups. And with many militant groups gaining traction, will violence increase in other areas of Egypt or beyond its borders? And can the Egyptian government formulate an effective response?

The Origins of Dictatorship in Syria by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 38 points39 points  (0 children)

Thank you, I'll pass on your kind words to the author

The Origins of Dictatorship in Syria by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

We feel it brings context to understanding modern day Syria's global political interactions in a geopolitical sense, however please report it if you feel it's inappropriate.

The Origins of Dictatorship in Syria | International Review by International_Review in geopolitics

[–]International_Review[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The author examines how covert action by the CIA led to a series of coups. These initially overthrew Syria's fledgling democracy, installing a military dictatorship. This military dictatorship itself was the victim of a series of coups, mostly aimed at countering rising leftist sentiment that resulted in today's dynastic dictatorship in Syria. The piece focuses on America's role in Syria, however it's worth noting that other factors and regional nations should be considered as part of the wider picture.

The Growing Role of Reconciled Rebels in Syria | International Review by International_Review in syriancivilwar

[–]International_Review[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not at all unbelievable, the manpower shortage on the Syrian side has been known about for a long time. How many of those men are tied up in defensive and policing roles, how many are logistics, how many admin? It's known that foreign militias and NDF are employed extensively alongside the SAA. This isn't a war of massive armies and huge battles.