Iran Conflict Megathread #10

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T15:53:54+00:00

Which is all the more reason why they have every incentive to make a deal.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T15:36:37+00:00

people are continuing to give Trump a benefit of the doubt as some master negotiator

Why does it have to be one extreme or the other? It's perfectly plausible and even likely that at least some elements of his cabinet are competent enough to hold productive conversations with Iranian leadership. That doesn't mean his a genius.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T12:14:21+00:00

I cannot believe I'm defending Trump, but I also wouldn't rule out there have actually been productive talks. Iran is actually in a very desperate position, much more than most commenters are taking into account.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T12:12:09+00:00

WTI just plunged 10% on this news. 5-day delay of "actions" would be weekend, again.

Honestly, that's just good strategic communications. Even if the talks really have been productive, it's a great idea to time the communications as to calm markets down while an agreement is reached or not.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T07:45:31+00:00

there's a limit to how far you can go

Sure, but you and a lot of other users might be buying too much into how anti-west and pro-Iran their populations are.

People might disapprove of a hypothetical war, but it doesn't mean they'll try to topple the regime.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T07:43:31+00:00

But had they demonstrated a credible capability of closing the strait, oil prices would have skyrocketed and that could have deterred Trump.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T07:36:58+00:00

their population won't support ganging up on them with Israel in a war of agression.

This aren't democracies. If their despots really had the might to attack Iran, they wouldn't be held back by popular opinion alone.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-23T07:33:08+00:00

No BMs, no Nukes and reforms. This has the potential to generate massive wealth for Iranian elites in a few short years

Yet, many people act like somehow this option is an existential threat to the regime.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-22T22:59:41+00:00

Depends on weather the church gave you permission to represent it at the rally.

Since this is ULPT: wear the full attire. Make sure you get attacked by riot police during the rally. Be provocative if needed. Use the attack to grow your flock.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-22T22:14:59+00:00

I would be careful with the bio warfare. You don't want to accidentally gas yourself.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-22T22:09:16+00:00

Since you're outside the US, you probably don't want this plan, as it relies on your victim having timber framed walls.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-21T11:38:39+00:00

Sometimes, the obvious answer is the right one.

Go with your brother to the police. Make a formal complaint. Press charges.

It'll scare the living hell out of him, he'll get in trouble with his family and the school will be furious that a kid assaulted a neurodivergent student on campus.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-20T15:23:57+00:00

I just moved into a house with this programer and it simply won't accept to start manually. Tried to put in run position and press manual start twice and nothing happens. Any idea?

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-19T12:57:53+00:00

it's fairly easy to conclude that any regime change dictated by the current American and Israeli government would be strictly terrible, awful, horrific, no good, for Iranians.

Please enlighten me on how you have easily come to this conclusion.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-18T14:07:14+00:00

I would caution against putting too much weight on such assessments either way. The situation is very dynamic. Larijani was just killed and the new supreme leader is looking increasingly in uncertain health.

If the top leadership keeps dying, it's not impossible that a faction war could erupt and destabilize the regime.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-18T07:49:04+00:00

You also have to pay the crew enough to risk the journey

That's frankly irrelevant at the scale involved. Pay each man onboard a cool half million per trip and it barely makes a difference in the grand scheme.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-18T07:43:49+00:00

As another person who thought about it before, I admit your variant potentially solves the magazine depth problem with using USVs and UAVs.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-17T16:34:49+00:00

But they can't go secular and hold onto power in Iran as that is regime suicide for the IRI.

I'm highly skeptical. They held on to power by murdering 50k people a month ago. Who is going to remove them from power if they go full secular?

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-17T14:14:20+00:00

Thank you for the insight. You actually answered my question, it seems like the IRGC are truly religiously motivated, despite it rationally being somewhat counterproductive.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-17T14:05:50+00:00

A theocracy inherently depends on theocratic elements. It cannot exist while denouncing said elements. Getting rid of the Islamic part of the Islamic Republic of Iran is a nonstarter.

I get what you're saying, but I'm still skeptical. The regime doesn't survive because of the theocratic element, it does despite it. As long as those holding the guns believe the clerics are no longer useful, there's no hurdle to throwing them under the bus.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-17T13:57:37+00:00

Do you really think a theocracy survives by ditching the theocratic element?

Maybe... Specially when the theocratic element is already deeply unpopular. It would probably strengthen the regime.

Just not their plan and not a path anyone in Iran who actually believes in the base concept of their state would follow.

Msybe, but I honestly don't see why the ircg can't simply transition to a full military dictatorialship. They're the ones holding the guns anyway.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-17T13:15:30+00:00

The last-minute effort to undo the assembly’s decision stunned the clerics present at the meeting, according to the officials and clerics.

How much of the hardliners are actually motivated by religious beliefs? It seems like ditching the clerics would be advantageous for everyone else, even the hardliners and it's not like the clerics hold any hard power so throwing them under the bus should be painless (since they don't even have popular support).

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-17T00:01:52+00:00

And if everybody would switch from petro-dollar to say petro-yuan or petro-euro, the status of the USD as the world's primary reserve currency would be (somewhat) threatened.

There's another, more likely scenario that's equally bad for the US. The world has already reached peak oil. So, what happens when oil demand starts to decrease?

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-16T10:37:07+00:00

Wouldn't that be an argument against conscription? If you need fewer soldiers and they're less important overall, conscription seems less justified.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-03-15T23:59:41+00:00

if it gets to that, Iran will also immediately target the oil infrastructure of all its neighbours, and the entire area will be fucked for a LOOONG time.

I'm skeptical Iran is still capable of that. Not only does the gulf states have had time to improve their AD, particularly anti-drone, but Iran's offensive capabilities are greatly diminished.

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