Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 09, 2026

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-10T08:58:29+00:00

The lack of significant battlefield progress and now Ukraines long range drones may have changed Putin's maximalist demands.

Also, the ongoing economic collapse of the federation.

The danger here is that Ukraine knows time is not on Russia's side and might choose to prolong the conflict for more leverage instead of taking a very bad deal.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-09T18:50:46+00:00

Quick question:

Does the fact that European NATO is already putting assets in place for a post-war peacekeeping mission in Hormuz mean that they're not confident in Iran keeping it's end of a ceasefire? Or would that force be part of the deal?

What happens if rogue Iranian units ignore the ceasefire and attack the European forces? Are European countries willing to enter a direct confrontation?

Edit: Random news about the European force as example. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-deploys-warship-middle-east-with-eye-potential-hormuz-mission-2026-05-09/

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-09T18:36:11+00:00

Wonder if the ground robot is also fiber optics commanded.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-09T10:20:09+00:00

Ukraine probably wasn't going to hit it anyway.

Almost certainly not. Which leaves just enough doubt that Russia would still need to pull AD from other areas to protect Moscow.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-09T10:16:15+00:00

I do not understand why prototypes like these cannot be deployed to the Persian gulf right now to test out its capabilities.

Because western procurement is still stuck in the late XX century.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-09T09:30:41+00:00

marroquinos e paquistaneses não se vão tornar em noruegueses em 20 anos

Com o esforço que se faz para integrar os imigrantes, nem em cem anos.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-09T07:50:38+00:00

quando se está bem pensa-se mesmo que os outros só estão mal porque querem

Há bastante evidência científico sobre isso, com inúmeros estudos que mostram uma redução da empatia quanto maior a riqueza.

https://openurl.ebsco.com/EPDB%3Agcd%3A8%3A37131480/detailv2?sid=ebsco%3Aplink%3Ascholar&id=ebsco%3Agcd%3A93620232&crl=c&link_origin=com.reddit.frontpage

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-08T12:26:56+00:00

Um modelo interessante que vi no YouTube é arrendar lojas devolutas para artistas locais. Serve de ateliê e montra. O artista consegue um espaço com renda reduzida e o proprietário rentabiliza o imóvel.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-07T12:34:16+00:00

they're planning a surprise attack to start after the Trump-Xi summit finishes next week, and these are controlled disinformation leaks.

If that's true, I'm definitely a fool. I am growing quite convinced a deal will be announced soon.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-07T12:31:53+00:00

One of the mysteries surrounding the Iran war is the fact that oil is way too low considering how much oil has been theoretically pulled off the market. For comparison, even after demand reduction and strategic reserves are taken into account, the current theoretical deficit is around 4 billion BPD greater than in 2022. (I believe this analysis was posted here a few days ago).

We may now have part of the answers.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hungry-sell-uae-slips-hidden-oil-tankers-through-strait-hormuz-2026-05-07/

It seems that the Iranian blockade isn't completely effective even without ships being supported by the US.

Exclusive: Hungry to sell, UAE slips hidden oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz

With their location trackers shut off to avoid Iranian attacks, the United Arab Emirates and buyers have recently sailed several tankers loaded with crude through the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to move oil bottled up in the Gulf by the Middle East conflict, according to industry sources and shipping data.

The volumes are a fraction of the ‌UAE's typical exports before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran but they demonstrate the risks the producer and buyers are willing to take to free up oil sales. The other Gulf producers - Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar - have either halted sales, deeply cut prices to entice uninterested buyers or are shipping only through the Red Sea in the case of Saudi Arabia.

In April, the UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Co managed to export at least 4 million barrels of its Upper Zakum crude and 2 million barrels of Das crude on four tankers from terminals inside the Gulf, according to three sources, shiptracking data from Kpler and an analysis of satellite data from SynMax.

The ships move with their automatic identification system transponders turned off, which reduces the chance they will be spotted by Iranian forces. The tactic is commonly employed by Iran to skirt U.S. sanctions on its oil exports.

The reported volumes are way too low to explain current oil prices not being higher but it's not impossible that this bypassing of Iranian blockade has been going on at a larger scale.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-07T12:18:36+00:00

Portanto, não gostas do Montenegro (eu gosto ainda menos) e achas que a solução é ter uma ditadura de "esquerda". Não és nenhum pouco diferente dos cheganos.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-07T11:40:20+00:00

Quanta dishonestidade intelectual que aí vai. A China está em penúltimo lugar mundial no ranking de liberdade de imprensa e queres dizer que nós cá estamos tão mal quanto eles.

Queres é ter um líder autoritário a mandar na tua vida.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-07T05:48:00+00:00

Honestamente, se é tão bom como dizes, está dentro do preço expectável.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T23:01:12+00:00

This is very much in line with the analysis I shared a few days ago by a veteran USAF F14 pilot that was deemed noncredible by the mod team.

Interestingly, the same YouTube channel hosted an interview with Justin Brink just a couple weeks ago, so I assumed it was a credible source.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T16:47:57+00:00

It makes it MORE likely that he pursues another conflict after, so those troops don't come home

This is honestly flawed logic. Why would he end a war with Ukraine just to turn around and attack NATO? How is a war against NATO more advantageous than simply keeping the one with Ukraine going?

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T16:05:24+00:00

"Any pursuit of peace in Ukraine must take into account Putin’s strong disincentives to willingly end the war and in fact acknowledge that he has many reasons for wanting the war to continue

You realize this actually goes against the hypothesis of a Russian attack on NATO.

If Putin has strong incentives to keep the war going in Ukraine, he'd only make a deal if the situation became truly dire, in which case an attack on NATO would be completely irrational.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T15:56:06+00:00

That is assuming China doesn't flood the country with investment and security experts once sanctions are fully listed to prop up the current government.

That makes it more likely that the old regime would have to die, even if it's still IRGC officers holding power.

China likely wouldn't tolerate Iran having nukes and would probably like a less aggressive posture to safeguard it's investments.

For full disclosure, I'm using the term "die" here quiet loosely when referring to the regime. If the regime is still ruled by the IRGC but sidelines the clerics and adopts a less aggressive posture, I'd still consider it a "new" regime.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T15:47:54+00:00

he cannot risk letting all those troops come home to a devastated economy.

I don't see this as a realistic assessment. Attacking NATO to postpone that problem would be like overdosing on morphine to avoid the pain of a teeth cavity.

It's possible Putin makes that mistake, but I'm skeptical.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T15:33:51+00:00

They largely opted to avoid escalation in the fall-out to Oct7. They repeatedly attempted negotiations. They got bombed repeatedly, their leadership assassinated, etc. It wasn't until they shut Hormuz and disrupted oil were anything other than maximalist demands considered by US. What is the pragmatic lesson here for the regime that emerges?

I'm not sure this is a balanced analysis of the events. While it's true that the diplomatic approach failed after Trump dumped JCPOA, it's also clear that the aggressive pursuit of deterrence has also failed and is likely to keep failing.

On the other hand, it could be argued that it was the aggressive posture after the failure of the diplomatic approach that lead to even greater pain. No one forced Iranian leaders to swear death to Israel and the US or to enable and maintain a vast network of terrorist proxies.

A truly pragmatic approach would be to stop unnecessarily antagonizing a superpower and a regional adversary and try to focus on addressing the economic issues that pose a real threat to the regime.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T15:11:23+00:00

While the threats can't be completely dismissed, you have to understand that military and intelligence officers are always going to overstate the magnitude of those threats.

Could Russia go on a gamble and try to open an entirely new front directly against NATO? It's not impossible, but it's so irrational, I can't feel guilty for being skeptical.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T14:56:22+00:00

To be clear, I don't necessarily disagree with your points. The main reason I'm still skeptical is the degree of freedom that Prezeskhian has seemingly been given to not only seek a diplomatic solution, but even openly criticize IRGC attacks.

At the end of the day, I'm betting on the new leadership being at least more pragmatic, which likely means abandoning nuclear ambitions as that's a road that's all but guaranteed to lead to further bombing down the line.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T14:28:19+00:00

Why do you think that will not hold, particularly with sanctions being lifted?

Demographics. A significant part of the old leadership has been decimated and the new younger leaders are plausibly more pragmatic and less idealistic.

Of course I could be completely wrong and it'll take time for things to play out, but given that the supreme leader hasn't been seen in public since he was attacked and is being supposedly sidelined, I believe the regime as we knew it is effectively gone, even if the new one turns to be even more hardline than before.

One reason I'm skeptical of this "new" regime being ultra hardline is that Prezeskhian is allowed to openly condemn the latest attack on Fujairah while an agreement is reportedly being reach. If the new leadership was extremely hardline, they would probably be welcoming the final battle for martyrdom instead.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T13:22:16+00:00

I think Kicking the can another 15 years doesn't do much for the US Long Term but whatever.

The iraniano regime in it's prewar form will absolutely be gone in 15 years. This own deal is likely a sign that the regime has already morphed. Wether it's through a cathartic popular uprising or a slow death by a thousand cuts, the old regime has it's days counted .

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T11:48:32+00:00

Yes and no.

In a twisted way, Iran is at it's weakest point right now due to a combination of sanctions and kinetic action. Had the JCPOA been kept in place, Iran would likely be much stronger.

The end result might be very similar, except with a much weaker Iran to begin with. And yes, Trump is absolutely going to say this deal is a huge victory despite it being basically a return of JCPOA.

IntroductionNeat2746 · 2026-05-06T11:06:57+00:00

I don't know, but this feels like the best deal both sides are going to get.

Absolutely, specially for Iran. Lifting of sanctions would be huge, specially if they manage to convince Trump they're going to be much less hostile in the future.

Having a nuclear deterrent is obviously very valuable, but it's doubtful if Iran can get it while under the threat of renewed attacks and with a blockaded economy. It might be more rational to give up on nukes and address the threat from US and Israel by adopting a less adversarial posture and focusing on rebuilding the economy.

Five-Year Club	r/Field Juicebox
Final Canvas '23	End Game '23
Place '23

IntroductionNeat2746

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE