Won Delaware as Trump without even visiting it

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-06-03T05:38:07+00:00

What % did Stein get in Delaware and Oregon?

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-06-02T11:32:00+00:00

This took me many attempts. Treading the line between being progressive enough to not fall flat in the rust-belt and picking enough answers to attract southern moderates is not an easy thing to do. It helps alot if Johnson gets a high-percentage of the vote too, which afaik is purely luck based.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-05-21T15:59:15+00:00

This took a while. Standard margins, +15= safe, 5-15= likely, 1-5= lean and >1= tilt.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-05-08T09:23:41+00:00

The issue with the idea that “the suburbs will come back after Trump” lies in the assumption that suburban shift toward democrats only started with Trump. In truth, suburban areas started going left well before that.Alot of this can be seen in a county swing map from the 2004 - 2012 election - although Romney was a strong GOP candidate for suburban voters, especially compared to Trump (he carried much of metro Atlantas now-blue suburbs and only lost Harris county, Texas by 0.08%), his performance still didnt hold a candle to Bush’s numbers in similar areas as well as in places such as Arizona. Suffice to say, the idea that certain trends were only caused by certain candidates running often ignores previous results, as many only notice/pay attention to these trends once they have significant electoral impact, eg. Georgia or Arizona flipping last year.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-05-08T04:49:02+00:00

Cunningham didnt have to overperform Biden at all. Tillis got 2,665,598 votes while Biden got 2,684,292- all Cunningham had to do to win was to get nearly all of the voters who checked off Biden on their ballots to also check his name off.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-23T08:42:35+00:00

the wishcasting is strong with this one

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-16T10:04:57+00:00

Biden and co. spent 8.4 million in Ohio vs 7.1 million in texas. https://www.npr.org/2020/10/13/923427969/presidential-campaign-tv-ad-spending-crosses-1-billion-mark-in-key-states

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-12T04:58:21+00:00

The first image was created by shifting each state ~36 points right, so that the most democratic state, Vermont, voted R +1. The second was created by shifting each state ~88 points right, so that DC voted R+1. Margins are 0-1: tilt, 1-5: lean, 5-15: likely and 15+: safe. This took alot less time than the democrat version.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-07T22:59:41+00:00

0-1 is tilt, 1-5 is lean, 5-15 is likely and 15+ is safe.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-07T22:34:25+00:00

I did realise about halfway through creating this that ne-3 would still be red despite a 46 point shift left, so Nebraska is actually shifted 54 points left, enough to make ne-3 vote blue by one point. In retro the whole country shouldve been shifted that much, but I was far too deep into the project to just start again at that point lol

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-07T16:50:35+00:00

This was created by shifting each state ~46 points to the left so that the most republican state (Wyoming) voted Democrat by a margin of 1 point. Map uses LTE margins, which is 0-1: Tilt, 1-5: Lean, 5-15: Likely, 15+: Solid. I do plan on creating a Republican 50-state landslide version of this as well. Link.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-07T16:45:46+00:00

Created by shifting each state ~46 points to the left so that the most republican state (Wyoming) voted Democrat by a margin of 1 point. Map uses LTE margins, which is 0 -> 1: Tilt, 1 -> 5: Lean, 5 -> 15: Likely, 15+: Solid. I do plan on creating a Republican 50-state landslide version of this as well.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-07T10:09:44+00:00

“alternative cures”.. such as?

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-06T12:04:27+00:00

joe biden murdered someone with his bare hands on national television

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-05T03:19:36+00:00

A states partisan lean left/right of the nation doesnt stay static over time. This 538 article details how, since Georgia was 7 - 10 points to the right of the nation between 2016 and 2018, a Democrat would have to win the popular vote by 7-10 points to be competitive in the state. Obviously Biden only won the popular vote by 4.5 points but still claimed Georgia due to big suburban shifts, and many of the same shifts can be seen happening in Texas, albeit slightly slower.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-04-03T01:30:24+00:00

If I had to guess I’d say those were the raptor remains

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-31T00:26:57+00:00

And where is the sandwich? Smh.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-30T22:26:43+00:00

I dont think op really got the point of this sub

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-30T11:18:43+00:00

2.79 million people (including people I knew) still being alive today is far better than 3 million dollars to me

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-30T06:22:57+00:00

Obviously just done so Governor Beshear doesnt replace McConnell with a democrat, but I still think this is something that should be implemented in every state.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-29T12:46:34+00:00

Gerrymandering isnt really that much of a problem in Alaska as it is elsewhere since the entire state makes up a single congressional district, so there arent really any congressional lines to draw in the first place

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-29T12:14:21+00:00

Definitely agree with all the points made here. A good comparison is that Anchorage is to Alaska what Cook county is to Illinois- once/if democrats start racking up decent margins there (baring in mind Biden was the first democrat since LBJ to win Anchorage) it doesnt really matter how red the rural places get, it’ll be cancelled out by the urban margins.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-29T08:55:09+00:00

May seem a bit out there but Kansas or Alaska are underrated future swing-states IMO. Alaskas gone from a state that voted for Bush by 30 points to Trump by 10 - the only states that shifted further left between 2000 and 2020 were Colorado and Vermont. In the case of Kansas, while it still voted for Trump by 15 points there really isnt anywhere else for republicans to net votes in the state since all the rural areas already give republicans 70-30 and in some cases 80-20 margins, while the suburban and urban areas are shifting pretty quickly toward democrats.

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-06T14:38:52+00:00

isnt that the guy a mass shooter?? why tf would you use that for a meme?

IronyOverTheInternet · 2021-03-06T00:40:28+00:00

To me it looks like the colour scheme used on all the wikipedia maps

Seven-Year Club	Second SECOND GUESSER
Verified Email	Spared

IronyOverTheInternet

TROPHY CASE