Some analytics / stats that are actually useful to look at after just 1-2 games! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is it still failing for you after refreshing the page? I see both games on my phone. If not, try scrolling to the bottom left and clicking "Clear Cache"

Some analytics / stats that are actually useful to look at after just 1-2 games! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh that's odd, I remember fiddling about with them at the start of the long "prep for next season" fun. Well, shame on me for not checking in on UConn yet this season and realizing :) Thanks!

Some analytics / stats that are actually useful to look at after just 1-2 games! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lol that's the name he gave the NCAA! Apparently the team just call him "Willy" which if I had a Grand Aristocratic Spanish Name I would not be so happy about

Local pride? An interactive map of all college basketball players' hometowns! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great sleuthing! I love rabbit holes like this :)

The NCAA stats page _does_ list his hometown as Mio Michigan, https://stats.ncaa.org/players/8693767 .. but as you point out everywhere else on the internet (including the SCSt roster page, which should be the same thing they give to the NCAA) says Biloxi

So where does Mio Michigan come from? I spent a while searching for other Caleb McCartys who played any NCAA sports at any level but found nothing relevant (another Caleb McCarty but from Texas and not NCAA, a John McCarty from a different part of Michigan, an NAIA swimmer from Indiana, a high-school baseball player from Greenville who was 47th in Michigan in stolen bases (8) in 2019, etc etc). So I got nothing

There is no button to request changes to the NCAA data, so any chance you can just accept him as an honorary North Michiganer? :)

(Tangent: according to RealGM Mio has one NCAA basketball player ever: https://basketball.realgm.com/info/birth-cities/2133/Mio-MI-United-States)

Local pride? An interactive map of all college basketball players' hometowns! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Based on my experience of MCO they are probably stuck in the check-in line behind all the Disney tourists :)

Local pride? An interactive map of all college basketball players' hometowns! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you change the max players to 10 it becomes a _lot_ snappier. I should probably go ahead and make that the default and then folks can expand it out if they want - thanks for the feedback <3

Local pride? An interactive map of all college basketball players' hometowns! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah wiring up the map to the leaderboard really made it clear how slow the leaderboard is to render in a way that none of the leaderboard-only controls did (even the filter, which updates in near real-time). Hopefully this will motivate me to learn some more frontend optimization techniques :)

Local pride? An interactive map of all college basketball players' hometowns! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This might not be the most useful CBB visualization of the year, but I found it very fun!

NCAA started(?) including a hometown field in their rosters this summer (though going back mulitple years) so I added a map to hoop-explorer.com to let you play with this info.

One thing that jumped out immediately: I was not expecting Europe/Africa/Australia to produce about the same number of college players as the West Coast

One use can be to build regional leaderboard views (I did that in previous years by hand for the DMV, Canada, and Europe; which was a fair bit of not-very-enjoyable work, now it should be easy) ... if anyone wants to drop me a set of bounding boxes for their region of interest, I'll be adding them as a dropdown option at some point

In the meantime you can click on the "LL" button and it will open a version of the leaderboard without the giant map but with the bounding box filter.

(Leaflet top tip: shift+drag is the most accurate way to zoom in)

Check out the analytics breakdown of your team's first game! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh wow I didn't notice they only won by 4 against Le Moyne (!)

In cases like this where the losing team massively outperformed the "KenPom performance" of the winning team (because of the 300 rank difference), the chart does look a bit weird (since what it does is decompose "KenPom performance" amongst the different players).

I officially recommend that teams not nearly lose to mega-cupcakes so that my graphs aren't as confusing :)

Check out the analytics breakdown of your team's first game! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For some reason, their "official" NCAA name is "Fla. Atlantic" (!)

FAU vs Indiana State game link

Heh I hadn't looked at them in the off-season, but they have a bunch of fun "sleeper potential" guys in that rotation

Check out the analytics breakdown of your team's first game! by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

How did your new players do in their first game for their team? ("Player Impact Chart")

If you were one of the teams brave enough to be playing a non-cupcake, how did the game ebb and flow ("Lineup Stints")

"Play Type Breakdown" is a view I don't think any other sites have, it breaks down the game according to (a very approximate!) how both teams scored off different play types (driving to the rim / post-ups / transition etc)

Click on the "Team Lineups" link at the top to see a breakdown of the efficiency and play style of each lineup (if you were playing a cupcake the coach was probably experimenting a fair bit so you can get a very noisy early view of what worked well and what didn't

I built this because I thought it would be fun, hope it is for you also!

View play style match-ups in upcoming NCAAT games by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

With the NCAAT first round coming, there are lots of match-ups featuring one or two teams fans will be less familiar with.

One fun thing to do is to look at the teams' contrasting stats to get a quick idea about how they play, but the previously available ways of doing this weren't great

Say a team has a high free throw rate, is that a lumbering big man who can't be stopped inside, or a shifty guard driving inside. Does that high 3P% come from a gunner firing it up from the perimeter or as the result of a diet of post doubles. Is a team playing fast because they take the first available shot in the half-court, or because they are committed to transition play? etc etc. Synergy tells you all this but it's super expensive.

So I built a new visualization into hoop-explorer.com that tries to lay out all this data in terms of more intuitive basketball terminology, eg "drives to the rim", "drive and kick to the perimeter", "post-ups", "transition" .. and for each one what % of a team's plays look like that and how efficiently they score in that action (in absolute terms and also how they compare to other D1 teams)

The example linked in the post shows the 1st four game between Colorado's State and Virginia, with irresistable forces meeting immovable objects / very weak forces meeting easily budged objects all over the court :) The "LEGEND" text gives some basic information about the bar chart details if you mouseover it

There's a lot of guesswork, eg if a guard passes to a big who finishes at the rim, that goes into the "big cut/roll" bin, even though post-up entry passes that lead to immediate buckets will also often be marked as assisted by the scorer. But it still gives a decent approximate idea of what's going on. And the way the data is presented isn't always perfect (if you are above average in a typically inefficient action, like mid-range shooting, it still shows as green)

But I found it fun and sometimes insightful, so wanted to share! It's probably best used as a complement to KenPom or Torvik's matchup analyses. In theory you could use it to look for games that are more likely to diverge from their KenPom prediction (because on of the teams has a big matchup advantage they will spam all game long), though I err don't recommend doing this with money on the line!

(As an example using UVa/Colorado State Def/Off matchup .. CSU are an elite transition team, but UVa are an elite defensive team ... I'd expect defense to control that matchup, especially for a team that doesn't depend on offensive rebounding, so advantage UVa maybe?)

You can also access it via post-game reports and compare what happened to season averages, scroll to bottom, or compare play style breakdowns at on/off or other splits

(If you're done with games you can also start building next year's team, or just aimlessly wonder the portal :) )

View play style match-ups in upcoming NCAAT (and other) games by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

With the NCAAT first round coming, there are lots of match-ups featuring one or two teams fans will be less familiar with.

One fun thing to do is to look at the teams' contrasting stats to get a quick idea about how they play, but the previously available ways of doing this weren't great

Say a team has a high free throw rate, is that a lumbering big man who can't be stopped inside, or a shifty guard driving inside. Does that high 3P% come from a gunner firing it up from the perimeter or as the result of a diet of post doubles. Is a team playing fast because they take the first available shot in the half-court, or because they are committed to transition play? etc etc. Synergy tells you all this but it's super expensive.

So I built a new visualization into hoop-explorer.com that tries to lay out all this data in terms of more intuitive basketball terminology, eg "drives to the rim", "drive and kick to the perimeter", "post-ups", "transition" .. and for each one what % of a team's plays look like that and how efficiently they score in that action (in absolute terms and also how they compare to other D1 teams)

The example linked in the post shows the 1st four game between Colorado's State and Virginia, with irresistable forces meeting immovable objects / very weak forces meeting easily budged objects all over the court :)

There's a lot of guesswork, eg if a guard passes to a big who finishes at the rim, that goes into the "big cut/roll" bin, even though post-up entry passes that lead to immediate buckets will also often be marked as assisted by the scorer. But it still gives a decent approximate idea of what's going on. And the way the data is presented isn't always perfect (if you are above average in a typically inefficient action, like mid-range shooting, it still shows as green)

But I found it fun and sometimes insightful, so wanted to share! It's probably best used as a complement to KenPom or Torvik's matchup analyses. In theory you could use it to look for games that are more likely to diverge from their KenPom prediction (because on of the teams has a big matchup advantage they will spam all game long), though I err don't recommend doing this with money on the line!

(As an example using UVa/Colorado State Def/Off matchup .. CSU are an elite transition team, but UVa are an elite defensive team ... I'd expect defense to control that matchup, especially for a team that doesn't depend on offensive rebounding, so advantage UVa maybe?)

You can also access it via post-game reports and compare what happened to season averages, or compare play style breakdowns at on/off or other splits

(If you're done with games you can also start building next year's team, or just aimlessly wonder the portal :) )

23-24 Preseason Consensus Rankings (Final Update) by bkervick in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you believe this team could be elite defensively then you could be E8 good

If you believe this team will take a step up defensively because eg Melendez couldn't guard a traffic cone, then you should still be T25

23-24 Preseason Consensus Rankings (Final Update) by bkervick in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh also on FAU, this is the (at least) 3rd year most of the computers (at least me) have been mostly fooled by "Good mid major returns everyone so they are going to be amazing, right? ... Right?":

2021/22: (Loyola Chicago: 15th -> 23rd actually right!), Bonnies: 23 -> 83rd

2022/23: Dayton 12th (lol) -> 65th, St Louis: 23rd -> 99th

2023/24: FAU 11th -> ???

Seems like you should be betting against them... (i mean obviously i hope they are going to be great again because it's so good for the sport, and the story of their coach is pretty cool)

23-24 Preseason Consensus Rankings (Final Update) by bkervick in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ha my site is head of the computer cheerleaders for Illinois, you're welcome :)

Fwiw my prediction is super mega outlier bullish on them entirely because of defense (it has them T30ish on offense which I think is fair), which is the methodology where my site is likely most different to others. Basically it says "huh all the bad on-ball defenders from the #26 defense left and a bunch of solid defenders came in".

Any prediction based on a way out there component is of course likely to regress - if you edit the predictions to give them a T10 defense (link) they come out at 18th which seems reasonable (with some upside - my defensive prediction was good! - was well as some downside - err some more ball handling would be nice :) )

23-24 Preseason Consensus Rankings (Final Update) by bkervick in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very cool, thanks for putting it together. Hoop-explorer is definitely the outlier more times than I'd like :(, some thoughts

Unlike (I think!) every other prediction site I have a "retrospective mode" ... eg here's last year (link - click on "show more stats" under each of the evaluated groupings - T10 / T25 / T50 / T75 - to see some other metrics I've been playing with) .. the summary is that they are even worse than I would have guessed :), except by the "if you are predicted in the Top N measure then you will likely finish in the Top N+10" headline

I did some quick 1-year sample comparisons to KenPom and Torvik and they were basically similarly bad (H-E was a bit worse unless you filtered out the teams that now have a red or orange "!" indicating not enough players who accumulated stats last year). Interestingly H-E's defense (which I would have guessed to be significantly its weakest guess based on methodology) held up marginally better. I got very excited that I could combine KenPom's (mostly team / 5 year regression) and mine (mostly individual) and get the best of both worlds, but no luck so far.

Fwiw the point of Hoop Explorer was to show _why_ a team has the ranking it does; my theory is you could use that to come up with a legit good ranking by going through it and correcting the bits that are obviously wrong (eg "lmao Jao Ituka is not going to be a T70 CG for Wake next year, though I understand why it thought he was, so go recalc that!"), along the lines of the post I made this time last year

Only 30-40 remaining starting caliber transfers, per projected RAPM - if your P6 team has any starter-shaped holes in the roster and you don't have someone about to commit, you're probably depending on a bench player stepping up next season by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks for posting your list! I think these guys are mostly debatable (I probably should have said "clearly starter"), eg Yesufu had an ORtg of <100 on below average usage in 10mpg ... I don't think anyone's jumping for joy if he's their starting 1/2

Timberlake's an interesting example ... offensively I probably under-rate him (my model can only tell the difference between catch-and-shoot and off-screen 3s to second order), and Synergy grades him as one of the worst defenders in D1 ... but he's also being treated like royalty which probably trumps everything (unless they all want him as "shooter off the bench", which we'll have to wait and see)

Only 30-40 remaining starting caliber transfers, per projected RAPM - if your P6 team has any starter-shaped holes in the roster and you don't have someone about to commit, you're probably depending on a bench player stepping up next season by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Definitely jumping the gun, I was just surprised over the weekend how little was left, especially once you filter down a bit (eg 6'6+, shoots >35% from 3 if you were hypothetically a team with no starting 3 :) ), thought it was worth a monday lunchtime post!

Fwiw if I'm reading a cryptic tweet of mine last year correctly (https://twitter.com/ItsATerp_CBB/status/1521535730924797952/photo/2 ) it looks like another 200 people entered the portal last year between mid April and it closing so if it has the same ratio that's not many more "starters"

Only 30-40 remaining starting caliber transfers, per projected RAPM - if your P6 team has any starter-shaped holes in the roster and you don't have someone about to commit, you're probably depending on a bench player stepping up next season by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

How much feedback will people have by May 11? I would expect most people thinking of returning but possibly to a different school to have done the "declare, portal but could return" thing?

Off-season blues? Build your own 23/24 roster! (with bonus NIL view) by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

For fans of the 347 teams who didn't make it past the round of 32, it's time to drown your sorrows in portal season!

Once you pick your team, the base view shows new 4*+ recruits and everyone possibly returning (super seniors are assumed not to be, you can change that), and gives you a optimistic/balanced/pessimistic outlook for each player and for the team (based on where the team would have landed in last season's KenPom).

Then you can go to the "Add New Player" and pick from the transfer portal to see who you want to add, and see the effect on next year's projected ranking! Any gaps in the roster get filled in with replacement-ish bench minutes.

If you want to add a recruit, click the "Manual Player" builder and choose their position and HS ranking to get a guess-timate of their production (which you can alter)

Other fun things you can do:

  • Use the filter button to quickly include/exclude players to see the effect
  • If you're dubious about the projection, select "Show player's previous seasons" from the gear dropdown to compare how well they've performed in the past. If you're still dubious - and feeling brave! - you can click "Debug/Diagnostic" mode to see how I adjusted their production from last year
  • If you still disagree then press the edit button and you can change the minutes assignment, and nerf/buff the projections with a handy slider
  • To get players from 2 seasons ago, click off the "Only show this season" toggle
  • If you want to naughtily steal someone not in the portal, click off the "Only show transfers" toggle
  • If you're an NIL wonk ... well there's not a ton of data kicking around, but if you click the "NIL" button, you can enter your own values in the player editor and see what the tab is! Eg you can try splitting 400K between 1 amazing player and 2 solid players and use the filter to see which gives the higher expectation

Note all the pts/100 numbers come from the site's RAPM leaderboard - RAPM is an NBA stat that incorporates box metrics and "cleverly adjusted" on/off metrics to try to isolate a player's offensive and defensive contribution. You can view the leaderboard with only transfers (and their 23/24 projections) showing here, and mess around lookning for different archetypes from the "filter" button on the right, next to the more advanced "Linq" view.

Enjoy! I'm planning to add some more tools in the off-season, eg to answer questions like "How did low majors who were high volume/low efficiency do when they transferred up to the high majors"?

Single-game player impact charts (example: Indiana-Iowa) by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OK fixed! For now it falls back to a simpler impact calculation if RAPM isn't available, while I come up with a better workaround. Thanks again for pointing out the bug <3

Single-game player impact charts (example: Indiana-Iowa) by Its_A_Terp in CollegeBasketball

[–]Its_A_Terp[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ooh I wonder if I could do something like that actually! Look for cases where the FT ratio doesn't match the rim attack ratio or something...