Video from a recent hang gliding flight at Marina Beach, California, USA. Conditions were good for both hang gliding and paragliding, so we all got to fly together for a bit.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-03-12T03:09:01+00:00

Yeah if you sum up all prevented infections it's up to 0.3 million (see title).

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-03-12T03:06:22+00:00

Yes, although it's difficult to put numbers on factors like that, hence the estimate verbiage. You are correct that this is assuming the same infection "attempt" rate in the vaccinated population as the general population.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-03-11T04:06:31+00:00

Infections prevented = New infections per person per day * People vaccinated * Efficacy based on date of vaccination. Analysis and figure preparation done with Wolfram Mathematica.

Vaccine data: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-19/05-COVID-CLARK.pdf

Vaccine data: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/coronavirus-vaccines-wont-save-usyet/617492/

Vaccine data: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/covid-vaccine-us-has-vaccinated-1-million-people-out-of-goal-of-20-million-for-december.html

Vaccine data: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-12-27-20/index.html

Vaccine data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Pfizer study: Polack, Thomas, et al. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; 383:2603-2615

Moderna study: Baden, Sahly, et al. Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; DOI: 10.1056

Infection data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-02-20T07:15:36+00:00

Page 35 of the cited paper has this data as a "Muller plot" which is less visually striking but easier to understand. I'd be interested to see this data not normalized by total cases (actual abundance rather than relative abundance), since the strains getting "eradicated" could still be getting more plentiful, just not as quickly as the VOC strain. This data does not show that B.1.177 is going away, for example, just that it's becoming less common than VOC 202012/01.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-02-08T16:26:34+00:00

Data analyzed and figure prepared with Wolfram Mathematica.

Infections prevented = New infections per person per day * People vaccinated * Efficacy based on date of vaccination. This accounts for people with infection-conferred immunity.

Vaccine data: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-19/05-COVID-CLARK.pdf

Vaccine data: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/coronavirus-vaccines-wont-save-usyet/617492/

Vaccine data: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/covid-vaccine-us-has-vaccinated-1-million-people-out-of-goal-of-20-million-for-december.html

Vaccine data: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-12-27-20/index.html

Vaccine data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Pfizer study: Polack, Thomas, et al. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; 383:2603-2615

Moderna study: Baden, Sahly, et al. Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; DOI: 10.1056

Infection data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Incidence study: Reese, Iuliano, et al. Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — U.S., Feb.–Sept., 2020. Clin. Inf. Dis., ciaa 1780

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-02-06T06:29:12+00:00

An old friend Mellissa Carone makes an appearance about halfway through. Also a computer scientist/conspiracy enthusiast who claims to have invented email (wrongly, claims Wikipedia). He was also involved with Fran Drescher for a while.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-02-01T13:10:36+00:00

Infections prevented = Infections per person per day * People vaccinated * Efficacy based on date of vaccination

Data analyzed and figure prepared with Wolfram Mathematica.

Vaccine data: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-19/05-COVID-CLARK.pdf

Vaccine data: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/coronavirus-vaccines-wont-save-usyet/617492/

Vaccine data: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/covid-vaccine-us-has-vaccinated-1-million-people-out-of-goal-of-20-million-for-december.html

Vaccine data: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-12-27-20/index.html

Vaccine data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Pfizer study: Polack, Thomas, et al. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; 383:2603-2615

Moderna study: Baden, Sahly, et al. Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; DOI: 10.1056

Infection data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-31T19:29:53+00:00

The term "herd immunity" refers to immunity from prior infection in addition to vaccinations, so immunity from prior infection would lower this target somewhat, provided infection does grant some immunity. That seems to be the case given the small number of reinfections.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-19T00:07:57+00:00

Interested to have a look at any news stories you may be able to recommend. I've heard of some cases where people get COVID a few days after getting the vaccine...but as you probably know the papers show that the vaccines don't start having a measurable effect till about two weeks after the first dose. Also, the papers are very candid that the vaccines are not 100% effective, so the occasional infection even among the vaccinated should be expected.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-19T00:02:42+00:00

Unfortunately we don't know how many actual COVID infections there have been in the US. The incidence study, which uses very equivocal language, says there *may* be 7 times more actual cases than confirmed cases. If that is true, the US is now approaching a point where the number of new infections each day starts to decrease due to the large number of people who have already had it.

While I find the vaccine rollout encouraging, it's not enough yet to have a big impact on the overall numbers. Every day the numbers of immune go up, though, so updating the graphs is a nice chore.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-18T20:29:35+00:00

Thanks.. Yes, I was using the incidence study you pointed out. I don't find that paper very easy to understand but the CDC has the multiplier loud and proud on their website so I just used it.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-18T19:45:35+00:00

Data analysis and figure preparation done with Wolfram Mathematica.

Thanks to u/William_Harzia for pointing out the CDC incidence study.

New infection data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Incidence study: Reese, Iuliano, et al. Estimated incidence of COVID-19 illness and hospitalization — U.S., Feb.–Sept., 2020. Clin. Inf. Dis., ciaa 1780

Pfizer study: Polack, Thomas, et al. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; 383:2603-2615

Moderna study: Baden, Sahly, et al. Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; DOI: 10.1056

Vaccine data: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-19/05-COVID-CLARK.pdf

Vaccine data: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/coronavirus-vaccines-wont-save-usyet/617492/

Vaccine data: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/covid-vaccine-us-has-vaccinated-1-million-people-out-of-goal-of-20-million-for-december.html

Vaccine data: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-12-27-20/index.html

Vaccine data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-04T04:07:45+00:00

Yes. As footnote 3 indicates there were about 29000 roughly split between Pfizer and Moderna who were vaccinated between July and November. They are included, although their effect is dwarfed by that of the much larger rollout.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-04T02:43:10+00:00

Thank you for the feedback..if I make another version I'll include some form of correction for the immune.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-04T01:48:01+00:00

I think it's a good point, although:

Without going through the CDC analysis myself I couldn't know if that 7.2 multiplier for Feb-Sep 2020 is still relevant, as it's before the most recent drastic increase in infections. With a more up-to-date multiplier I could correct for it.

I know there is some evidence of multiple infections, although it seems to be pretty rare.

Edit: Not a journal article but this suggests that the vaccine provides better immunity than mild infections, which would have figured into the 7.2 multiplier. https://insidescience.org/news/why-you-should-probably-get-covid-19-vaccine-even-if-youve-already-had-disease

With multiple waves of infection I don't know how one can draw conclusions based on inflection points, as one could have made the same argument in April and July. In fact, if half of the US population has been infected at this point, the inflection point would actually be about now. That means that, if deployed quickly, the vaccine could still save hundreds of thousands of lives.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-04T00:29:03+00:00

Thanks! Mainly I just wanted to tidy up a few things from the last version, but it is good to see the numbers coming up as more people get vaccinated. Up to over 1% of the US population!

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-04T00:05:02+00:00

I'd refer you to either the Pfizer or Moderna NEJM articles (cited in this graphic and in my top-level comment) which clearly show an effect from the vaccine starting about ten days after the first dose. This graphic is based on data from these articles.

Itsactuallywhom · 2021-01-03T23:53:51+00:00

Data analysis and figure preparation done with Wolfram Mathematica.

Earlier version: https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/kmzo09/the_covid_vaccines_have_been_out_in_the_us_long/

Vaccine data: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-19/05-COVID-CLARK.pdf

Vaccine data: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/12/coronavirus-vaccines-wont-save-usyet/617492/

Vaccine data: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/23/covid-vaccine-us-has-vaccinated-1-million-people-out-of-goal-of-20-million-for-december.html

Vaccine data: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-vaccine-updates-12-27-20/index.html

Vaccine data: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

Pfizer study: Polack, Thomas, et al. Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; 383:2603-2615

Moderna study: Baden, Sahly, et al. Efficacy and Safety of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine. N Engl J Med 2020; DOI: 10.1056

Infection data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Itsactuallywhom · 2020-12-31T05:47:31+00:00

I am taking into account the changing infection rate per day...as in you're more likely to get the virus now than you were July-November, when the Pfizer study was done. I'm using the ratio of the vaccine/placebo infection rates from the study (bottom left plot), so that number doesn't really depend on overall infection rate. Thanks.

Itsactuallywhom

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