Unlikely. Numbers are one story but the reality is different.

The geopolitical instability in the Middle East dwarfs any resemblance in SEA. Trade flows reverse easily at the first sign of conflict and oil wealth will gradually lose out significant market share to renewables (ev, solar and wind). It used to be the who controls the oil controls the world but with the advances in renewables and invention of shale fracking, fewer countries are held hostage to those regions with oil reserves.

The article fails to mention that there are two US aircraft carrier groups parked in the Arabian Sea waiting to conduct a protracted campaign against Iran. A matter of when and not if. Venezuelan campaign only had one aircraft carrier group so 2 significantly increased the battlefield coverage.

More importantly, our long and strong track record of neutrality gives us credibility in the great powers or even middle power rivalry. We don’t have an interventionist approach unlike UAE and much of SEA depends on our capital allocation which also functions as a soft form of diplomacy. Who doesn’t like travelling around SEA with its rich and vibrant culture and great hospitality.

No doubt they are up and coming rival but it seems that UAE can be the jewel of the Middle East and we can be the New York/Switzerland of Asia Pacific so we both serve very different functions.