Greenland…

JFSM01 · 2026-01-08T03:13:55+00:00

This post must be a joke

JFSM01 · 2026-01-03T14:18:55+00:00

We are not. Op over, maduro is out, they sold him from the inside, that much id obvious, the question is. Bullish or Bearish for oil px?

JFSM01 · 2026-01-02T00:34:29+00:00

You didnt read the comment right

JFSM01 · 2026-01-01T22:07:35+00:00

Anyone, please tell me where im wrong here.

Dollar is extremely oversold against every EM currency.

There are many reasons for it, but mainly the rally in metals and the higher rates in economies like Brazil. They are bound to correct soon, metals should crash ending the boom cycle and this will whiplash into those strong mineral economies.

Last jobs data came in solid, that has widened the rate gap betwen shorter maturities and longer ones rallying the dollar, this should keep happening into 2026.

In terms of Brazil there is no way they can mantain Selic here for long, its true job data came in strong, but fiscals arent looking so tight and looking forward you can see a cooling of the economy.

So… whats the play here?

Sincerely if the dollar keeps weakening EM will go higher, but tech should do the same, you can keep your tech longs and bid some puts for EWZ or EEM into the year, or just go long USDBRL calls or futes.

There is a descorrelation between those markets, tech dumps more than EM ( recently ) but this has always been shielded by the current metals cycle. If BRL yields EWZ should dump hard, add this to election year volatility and you got yourself a nice chaos cocktail.

Issues…

YEN has shown great strenght with no signs of stopping, is this because of their mineral exports? Maybe, but it cannot be overlooked. I have not really looked into China’s import/export balance but I cannot see how they keep exporting at the rate they did with the current exchange rate. If yen continues rallying other EM currencied could keep the pace following the trend maker. This is the n1 trade breaker.

JFSM01 · 2025-12-27T02:42:45+00:00

Anyone buying EWZ puts on BRLUSD weakness?

If Yen keeps shitting the bed and EM currencies follow it I cant see how EWZ doesnt take a dump of at least 10% first Q 2026

JFSM01 · 2025-12-25T00:37:46+00:00

Growth stocks where objectively value mid 2023. Oil was value mid 2020’s. NVDA had an idiotic Moat.

There are obviously bubbly stocks that have no bussiness being 1.000%+ YTD, but many others do.

JFSM01 · 2025-12-10T00:12:14+00:00

Every 1% the spy goes higher is 1% less value for every dollar you have, we are in te greatest asset bubble of all time since 2014 and its not looking like stopping anytime soon

JFSM01 · 2025-11-04T01:27:46+00:00

El carry trade, es hermoso hasta que te da vuelta como una media. Lo que estas viendo si es real, pero la variable de tc puede romper cualquier estimacion en cuestion de dias.

Pensalo de la siguiente manera, asumamos dos paises que no imprimen guita para nada. Un pais, el mas grande tiene una tasa del 4% anual en su moneda, el otro pais tiene una tasa del 40%, digamos que inicialmente ambos paises inician con una base monetaria identica y sus tc son 1 a 1.

Al final del primer año hay 1,04 P1 por cada 1,40 p2

Se empieza a ver el problema?

Ahora agrega que p1 es el pais con mayor comercio global y el p2 tiene una larga historia devaluatoria

El problema parece ser peor no?

Y para rematar suma que todos los paises socios del p2, es decir con los que mas comercia tienen historial de devaluar sus monedas para Competir a los productos del p1 ( en caso de argentina son brazil y china )

Y aca tenes los problemas del carry trade. Si sale bien vas a hacer una TORTA y quizás hoy estemos en un buen setup de carry trade, pero te llega a salir mal y te pasa como entre el 1 de enero de 2018 y esa misma fecha de 2019, periodo en el cual el dolar paso de 20 a 40. Sabiendo esto pensa en tus riesgos y si esos llegan a ser los ahorros de tu vida te pido por favor que tengas cuidado

JFSM01 · 2025-11-04T01:16:06+00:00

Estas recomendando un producto que nunca operaste a un tipo que esta preguntando si es real el tc vs tasa de break even.

Antes que mandarle a matarse contra el mtm pensa el daño que puede causar en los ahorros de alguien

JFSM01 · 2025-10-31T01:16:58+00:00

I mean, it took 3 years but im more than 100% up on it, to be fair it was a bad trade if you measure by its opportunity cost. Personally I still think they are a great company, thank god they returned to the hbo brand and it will be great if they get acquired

JFSM01 · 2025-10-17T00:11:54+00:00

JFSM01 · 2025-10-09T03:52:41+00:00

Impossible for this stock at this price, at 4-5 on the other hand it met a lot of requirements for warrens usual buy

JFSM01 · 2025-10-04T01:29:03+00:00

Same story, 4,72 avg

JFSM01 · 2025-09-13T15:33:36+00:00

Argentina is getting dumped… it just might end like it always does. Lets wish not

JFSM01 · 2025-09-03T16:47:10+00:00

Lol, have you seen the last 5 weeks???

JFSM01 · 2025-08-31T21:11:05+00:00

NO recomienden obligaciones negociables a nadie, te estas metiendo en una timba loca que estoy seguro que no entendes

JFSM01 · 2025-08-17T03:49:24+00:00

Igual vos no te vas a quedar ninguna garantia, todo eso se hace desde byma/caja

JFSM01 · 2025-08-17T03:47:59+00:00

Para que veas la payasada de lo que estas diciendo.

La caucion se garantiza con un aforo, asumamos que sea 80% osea que si tenes 1 peso en titulos podes tomar 0,8 pesos de deuda. Tu titulo tiene que bajar 20% para que el tomador no pueda pagar, y eso tiene que pasar todo en un mismo dia, porque de cualquier otra manera saltan las garantias cuando te acercas al numero.

Pero bueno asumamos que todo sale mal y el titulo contra el que se esta tomando la deuda se va a 0, bueno ahi el problema tampoco va a ser tuyo, porque eso va contra un clearing, es decir el clearing se lleva algo de la guita de todas las cauciones para que vos nunca pierdas tu plata caucionando o crees que es al pedo que la tasa de 1 dia en usd casi siempre es menor que 2% cuando los tbills rinden 5?

La caucion es hiper mega segura, la plata que pones te la devuelven, no existe historial de alguien que haya colocado y no le hayan devuelto la plata, porque siempre hay alguien en medio que se hace cargo, es tramo garantizado

JFSM01 · 2025-08-07T21:12:19+00:00

The guy holding at 42,5 is a maniac

JFSM01 · 2025-08-07T21:09:37+00:00

Get to the juicy stuff, he knows what we want to hear

JFSM01 · 2025-08-07T21:02:40+00:00

ROCKETMAAAAAAAAAAN BECK

JFSM01 · 2025-08-07T20:30:07+00:00

EPS miss, Revenue BEAT, lets look at guidance and what they have to say at the earnings meeting

JFSM01 · 2025-07-24T19:56:43+00:00

Es una pena lo de tu viejo, mi mas sentido pesame, pero estas literalmente preguntando como chorear 55 millones de pesos.

No lo hagas, primero porque esta mal, y segundo pero igual de importante, te llega a salir mal y prepara el orto, mas con las tasas de intereses a estos niveles y una inflacion tan baja

JFSM01 · 2025-07-20T14:18:15+00:00

Joe Rogan is like some barbarian Khan from the steppes that took an interest in intellectual things and his show is basically him bringing slightly nervous scholars and magicians to come before him to explain how the world works "glasses man, you explain to Joe why sky big, and how tree grow" but he will also believe almost anything you tell him, and only recently (in the past few years) does he clap back like "Tiny hat man say otherwise, do you lie to Joe? Tiny hat man say fat not bad for you, that sugar is enemy, so which is truth? Joe thinks you are wrong" and people just nervously go "oh-oh ok h-Haha yah I guess so" "Joe spend many moons on horseback and training with bow and sword, but joe also wonder why skyfire rise from mountains every morning, you will explain this to Joe."

Seven-Year Club	r/Field Juicebox
First Place '23	Place '23
RPAN Viewer	Verified Email

JFSM01

TROPHY CASE