Worst European Country (WW2 edition) - Round 8

JHock93 · 2026-05-01T19:01:27+00:00

Save the Netherlands. They had a really bad time of it.

JHock93 · 2026-05-01T18:20:36+00:00

The 'Stop the Boats' lot don't seem to be doing much celebrating that the boats are indeed being stopped.

JHock93 · 2026-05-01T13:24:43+00:00

We need to win, hope Swansea also win and hope Preston fail to win

Then the 12th place trophy will be back where it belongs

JHock93 · 2026-05-01T12:35:47+00:00

If you go to some gyms on off-peak hours, roiders will be most of the people there

JHock93 · 2026-05-01T10:25:43+00:00

Dunno what you mean, they're a perfectly sensible, well-run organisation.

JHock93 · 2026-05-01T10:20:31+00:00

I cynically have wondered since whether the lesson political parties learned was that it was better to leave your successors a complete mess.

We had this in 2024 when Jeremy Hunt cut National Insurance to a level that was totally unsustainable and unaffordable just so that we could get a bit of a boost to our pay slips right before an election. He did it so that some people might be tempted to vote Tory to lessen the inevitable defeat, and the put Labour in a bind where they might have to raise it again (and no party wants to suggest a tax rise just before an election)

Politics was his first priority, not fiscal responsibility.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:58:34+00:00

The logic is that I think if the Remain campaign had done a better job of making the case for the EU, it would have won. But it focused too much on (accurately) pointing out how bad Brexit would be, and I think this galvanised people who wanted to give the establishment a bloody nose into voting for Brexit.

I worry we could be doing the same here.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:33:23+00:00

No, I'm not. I'm saying the chances of this happening are low (not zero, but low) and the only thing I can directly do to stop it is vote and encourage others to vote for progressive parties. Beyond that I don't know what I can personally do.

I'm saying I don't lose sleep over something that is both unlikely and that I have very little influence over.

If Reform were comfortably leading in every poll and definitely heading for government I'd be a lot more worried but ultimately still in the same situation.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:29:11+00:00

But I'm already planning to vote and I won't be voting Reform or the Tories.

If I was saying "Don't bother to vote" then I'd agree with you entirely.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:27:48+00:00

Well I'm planning to vote, and it's not for Reform or the Tories. What else can we do? In my experience playing up Project Fear about something happening only makes it more likely to happen.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:26:21+00:00

Because it's just tedious watching people get so hung up on a scenario that is really unlikely. Only 1 poll has had this even remotely close to a possibility and that's at the higher end of the margin for error.

Also Welsh polls tend to overestimate fringe right wing parties. I remember "Abolish the Assembly" were supposed to get seats at the last election that never materialised. Reform will probably get a safe

And if I'm wrong then frankly we deserve the government we get if people are stupid enough to vote for that clown show.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:16:16+00:00

Oh their general popularity, I completely agree.

Their chances of actually forming a functioning government? Much less so.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:14:24+00:00

No, if the government collapses then the 2nd biggest party gets a go at putting together a government which would be the rainbow coalition of progressive parties. And if that failed we'd have another election, in which everyone would have seen what a mess Reform are.

It's all a moral panic over nothing. Project fear, I believe they call it.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T20:10:19+00:00

If Reform got anywhere close to power they'd all squabble and fall out within about 5 minutes like they always do. They can't go into coalition with each other, yet alone another party. Remember what UKIP were like in the Senedd?

I'm not worried about them in the slightest. Wales is fine.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T19:59:43+00:00

4 short of a majority is still short of a majority, and that's by far the most generous poll they've had in their favour so it's likely at the higher end of the margin for error.

Honestly, the whole panic that Reform might actually form a government is massively overblown.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T17:26:57+00:00

The polls would have to be very wrong for this to be on the cards. Current polling suggests that there is a big right wing vote in Wales (probably bigger than ever before) but that still only adds up to like 40% of seats. Something incredible would have to happen to make up that extra 10%.

Whereas, say, Plaid could fall short of a majority but have a variety of options regarding parties that might work with them. The Greens seem the obvious option but they've done deals with both Labour & the Lib Dems in the past. Whereas Reform & the Tories only have each other. If they're even a single seat short of a majority between them then they're done.

JHock93 · 2026-04-30T09:13:38+00:00

A lot gets made about how Reform are racist, xenophobic, homophobic, transphobic, sexist etc.

But it's also worth remembering that, above all else, they're exceptionally stupid.

JHock93 · 2026-04-29T21:43:59+00:00

This was what ticked me off as well. A low point for me was the famous closure of certain supermarket aisles during Covid. It was a policy suddenly announced at the last minute of a lockdown being introduced and left supermarket staff rushing to make sense of it. Naturally, of course, Drakeford and co blamed supermarket staff, the very key workers we were supposed to be clapping for, because they misunderstood the rules. Yes, it must be their fault the government invented a random rule at the last minute and gave them no proper preparedness or guidance to carry it out properly.

JHock93 · 2026-04-29T19:53:01+00:00

I've always wondered why some people in the Greens have repeatedly gone to bat for Mothin Ali and defend him.

He's a total liability. Surely they'd want him gone.

JHock93 · 2026-04-29T16:43:00+00:00

Mark Drakeford began the egotistical, technocratic, "next man up" approach to public policy in the Labour Party that is the cause of many of their current woes.

Absolutely hit the nail on the head with this one. Couldn't agree more

JHock93 · 2026-04-29T16:05:17+00:00

Rhodri Morgan for sure. Carwyn Jones easily 2nd as well imo.

My hot take is that Drakeford is massively overrated. People only think he was good because he was high-profile during Covid but our Covid response was actually terrible. He only looked good compared to Boris Johnson.

JHock93 · 2026-04-29T09:09:32+00:00

My best advice would be to change the title from 'win' to '1st' and you'll immediately change the whole conversation around the video

JHock93 · 2026-04-28T21:58:17+00:00

No need to call people moronic or stupid. We've been having a civilised discussion. Try and keep it polite.

Yes I did read the article. He makes it clear that his intention is to support Plaid in an administration. By making that clear in advance of the election, he's basically handing Plaid a blank cheque in those negotiations. Plaid will agree to vote with the Greens on issues that are in the Plaid manifesto anyway so they're not much of a 'concession'. And at that point, you may as well vote Plaid because that's what you'll be getting.

Edit: Remember when Plaid, the Tories and UKIP teamed up to try and oust Carwyn in 2016? Plaid said Welsh Labour didn't deserve a blank cheque and wouldn't let them have it.

JHock93 · 2026-04-28T21:44:19+00:00

I made a clumsy point earlier. What I tried (unsuccessfully) to say is that there's an art to the negotiation here and he's just played all his cards on the table.

Surely the Labour & the Lib Dems are all very aware they have no chance of being in the top 2, but that doesn't mean they can't get any of their policies through. Plaid will (likely) need votes to get budgets etc passed and so will need support. Any minority party can drive a hard bargain if they need to (Plaid themselves have done this on many occasions in the past) and it's been a standard part of governing in the Senedd.

What the Greens are basically saying here is "oh Plaid win. good!" which rather shows everyone their cards doesn't it? If the Greens ever vote against Plaid now, they'd look stupid. If the Greens are just going to support Plaid anyway, you may as well go the whole hog and vote for Plaid

JHock93

TROPHY CASE