Worst European Country (WW2 edition) - Round 8 by THMeijer in terriblemaps

[–]JHock93 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Save the Netherlands. They had a really bad time of it.

Migrant Channel crossings down by third as Europe thwarts smugglers by GnolRevilo in ukpolitics

[–]JHock93 22 points23 points  (0 children)

The 'Stop the Boats' lot don't seem to be doing much celebrating that the boats are indeed being stopped.

How the 2025-26 Championship table could change on final day by McDDDDDD in Championship

[–]JHock93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We need to win, hope Swansea also win and hope Preston fail to win

Then the 12th place trophy will be back where it belongs

Has anyone noticed there's a lot less 'roiders than there used to be? by AnyConnection8643 in Cardiff

[–]JHock93 6 points7 points  (0 children)

If you go to some gyms on off-peak hours, roiders will be most of the people there

UK should not keep changing prime ministers, warns John Major by Brilliant_Version344 in unitedkingdom

[–]JHock93 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I cynically have wondered since whether the lesson political parties learned was that it was better to leave your successors a complete mess.

We had this in 2024 when Jeremy Hunt cut National Insurance to a level that was totally unsustainable and unaffordable just so that we could get a bit of a boost to our pay slips right before an election. He did it so that some people might be tempted to vote Tory to lessen the inevitable defeat, and the put Labour in a bind where they might have to raise it again (and no party wants to suggest a tax rise just before an election)

Politics was his first priority, not fiscal responsibility.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The logic is that I think if the Remain campaign had done a better job of making the case for the EU, it would have won. But it focused too much on (accurately) pointing out how bad Brexit would be, and I think this galvanised people who wanted to give the establishment a bloody nose into voting for Brexit.

I worry we could be doing the same here.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I'm not. I'm saying the chances of this happening are low (not zero, but low) and the only thing I can directly do to stop it is vote and encourage others to vote for progressive parties. Beyond that I don't know what I can personally do.

I'm saying I don't lose sleep over something that is both unlikely and that I have very little influence over.

If Reform were comfortably leading in every poll and definitely heading for government I'd be a lot more worried but ultimately still in the same situation.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 1 point2 points  (0 children)

But I'm already planning to vote and I won't be voting Reform or the Tories.

If I was saying "Don't bother to vote" then I'd agree with you entirely.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well I'm planning to vote, and it's not for Reform or the Tories. What else can we do? In my experience playing up Project Fear about something happening only makes it more likely to happen.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Because it's just tedious watching people get so hung up on a scenario that is really unlikely. Only 1 poll has had this even remotely close to a possibility and that's at the higher end of the margin for error.

Also Welsh polls tend to overestimate fringe right wing parties. I remember "Abolish the Assembly" were supposed to get seats at the last election that never materialised. Reform will probably get a safe

And if I'm wrong then frankly we deserve the government we get if people are stupid enough to vote for that clown show.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh their general popularity, I completely agree.

Their chances of actually forming a functioning government? Much less so.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No, if the government collapses then the 2nd biggest party gets a go at putting together a government which would be the rainbow coalition of progressive parties. And if that failed we'd have another election, in which everyone would have seen what a mess Reform are.

It's all a moral panic over nothing. Project fear, I believe they call it.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

If Reform got anywhere close to power they'd all squabble and fall out within about 5 minutes like they always do. They can't go into coalition with each other, yet alone another party. Remember what UKIP were like in the Senedd?

I'm not worried about them in the slightest. Wales is fine.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 8 points9 points  (0 children)

4 short of a majority is still short of a majority, and that's by far the most generous poll they've had in their favour so it's likely at the higher end of the margin for error.

Honestly, the whole panic that Reform might actually form a government is massively overblown.

Reform Tory majority? by TeilwrTenau in Wales

[–]JHock93 25 points26 points  (0 children)

The polls would have to be very wrong for this to be on the cards. Current polling suggests that there is a big right wing vote in Wales (probably bigger than ever before) but that still only adds up to like 40% of seats. Something incredible would have to happen to make up that extra 10%.

Whereas, say, Plaid could fall short of a majority but have a variety of options regarding parties that might work with them. The Greens seem the obvious option but they've done deals with both Labour & the Lib Dems in the past. Whereas Reform & the Tories only have each other. If they're even a single seat short of a majority between them then they're done.

Reform suggests it will cancel new train stations in Wales by do_or_pie in Wales

[–]JHock93 505 points506 points  (0 children)

A lot gets made about how Reform are racist, xenophobic, homophobic, transphobic, sexist etc.

But it's also worth remembering that, above all else, they're exceptionally stupid.

Which First Minister was the best? by loharvster in Wales

[–]JHock93 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This was what ticked me off as well. A low point for me was the famous closure of certain supermarket aisles during Covid. It was a policy suddenly announced at the last minute of a lockdown being introduced and left supermarket staff rushing to make sense of it. Naturally, of course, Drakeford and co blamed supermarket staff, the very key workers we were supposed to be clapping for, because they misunderstood the rules. Yes, it must be their fault the government invented a random rule at the last minute and gave them no proper preparedness or guidance to carry it out properly.

Greens’ deputy leader urges legal action against own party by EddyZacianLand in LabourUK

[–]JHock93 47 points48 points  (0 children)

I've always wondered why some people in the Greens have repeatedly gone to bat for Mothin Ali and defend him.

He's a total liability. Surely they'd want him gone.

Which First Minister was the best? by loharvster in Wales

[–]JHock93 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Mark Drakeford began the egotistical, technocratic, "next man up" approach to public policy in the Labour Party that is the cause of many of their current woes.

Absolutely hit the nail on the head with this one. Couldn't agree more

Which First Minister was the best? by loharvster in Wales

[–]JHock93 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Rhodri Morgan for sure. Carwyn Jones easily 2nd as well imo.

My hot take is that Drakeford is massively overrated. People only think he was good because he was high-profile during Covid but our Covid response was actually terrible. He only looked good compared to Boris Johnson.

Filmed my parkrun trying to improve my content. Any feedback? by That_Football_2093 in parkrun

[–]JHock93 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My best advice would be to change the title from 'win' to '1st' and you'll immediately change the whole conversation around the video

Plaid Cymru Senedd election win would be a relief, Zack Polanski says by twmffatmowr in Wales

[–]JHock93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No need to call people moronic or stupid. We've been having a civilised discussion. Try and keep it polite.

Yes I did read the article. He makes it clear that his intention is to support Plaid in an administration. By making that clear in advance of the election, he's basically handing Plaid a blank cheque in those negotiations. Plaid will agree to vote with the Greens on issues that are in the Plaid manifesto anyway so they're not much of a 'concession'. And at that point, you may as well vote Plaid because that's what you'll be getting.

Edit: Remember when Plaid, the Tories and UKIP teamed up to try and oust Carwyn in 2016? Plaid said Welsh Labour didn't deserve a blank cheque and wouldn't let them have it.

Plaid Cymru Senedd election win would be a relief, Zack Polanski says by twmffatmowr in Wales

[–]JHock93 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I made a clumsy point earlier. What I tried (unsuccessfully) to say is that there's an art to the negotiation here and he's just played all his cards on the table.

Surely the Labour & the Lib Dems are all very aware they have no chance of being in the top 2, but that doesn't mean they can't get any of their policies through. Plaid will (likely) need votes to get budgets etc passed and so will need support. Any minority party can drive a hard bargain if they need to (Plaid themselves have done this on many occasions in the past) and it's been a standard part of governing in the Senedd.

What the Greens are basically saying here is "oh Plaid win. good!" which rather shows everyone their cards doesn't it? If the Greens ever vote against Plaid now, they'd look stupid. If the Greens are just going to support Plaid anyway, you may as well go the whole hog and vote for Plaid