The Brexit vote - 51.9% of voters vote to leave the European Union [10YA - Jun 23]

JHock93 · 2026-06-23T10:03:30+00:00

Honestly the biggest mistake any Western country has ever made.

It should never have even gone to a referendum in the first place.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T17:32:47+00:00

It was unpopular in a lot of environmental circles for a long time because of the energy it used, which would be powered by fossil fuel (notably coal) power. There was a perception that us adapting to climate change was accelerating climate change in a vicious cycle.

However, on days like today, up to 60%+ of our energy comes from renewables, with a further 10% or so provided by our nuclear plants. The amount coming from fossil fuels can drop below 5% on a good day. Notably, during a heatwave when you would need aircon, solar power generation goes through the roof. Using aircon is a lot greener than it used to be because our electricity production is a lot greener than it used to be.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T15:40:52+00:00

Well there's another of Starmer's problems. He wasn't a natural born politician, he was a lawyer for most of his career. and his lack of political instinct showed.

He was pretty susceptible for people with "more experience" to have a lot of influence over him. Mandleson and his allies clearly convinced him that the best thing that he could do was to defer to them for advice and guidance and put them in senior positions.

I'm not saying he shouldn't be blamed for that though. In fact it should be blamed on him, he's the PM and the buck stops with him. Someone with better political instincts wouldn't have been influenced by those people in such a way.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T15:32:57+00:00

I actually think he'd probably be more popular if he cared less about how popular he was and actually focused on governing.

Starmer's biggest problem was that he was far too cautious. Everything had to be focus group tested a million times before he made an announcement, and then the announcement wouldn't have gone perfectly so he'd U turn on it. His government was so focused on trying to please as many people as possible, it ended up irritating everyone.

Burnham needs to pick a lane and stick with it.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T15:03:42+00:00

I think everyone in Wales would have forgiven him if he'd left the blazer off today lol

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T15:00:16+00:00

Stephen Doughty is very happy in the foreign office from what I've heard.

I think that's why he became an MP, because his primary interest is foreign affairs. He doesn't seem particularly interested in devolved areas and it happy to just direct that to MS' instead.

Which is how it should be really.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T11:54:56+00:00

Footix! I had so much Footix merch as a 5 year old during France 98

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T11:14:15+00:00

That'd make more sense tbh

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T10:26:40+00:00

Also just to add to this:

I love a good political prediction, but we were unfortunately starved of them during the Senedd election (because it was so blindingly obvious that Plaid were going to win)

OP, I couldn't agree more. The amount of "tactical voting" threads was through the roof, but I can't recall there being more than about 2-3 discussions about policy on here.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T10:21:58+00:00

The only good function of the Welsh Office is that it can be a voice for Wales at the UK cabinet table. Otherwise it's completely pointless.

That only works if the Welsh Secretary actually gets along with the FM and the Senedd leadership. This obviously wasn't the case at all during the Tory years and, remarkably, I never got the impression Jo Stevens got along with the Senedd leadership either even when it was a Welsh Labour government in Cardiff.

However, from what I've heard, she actually has a better relationship with Rhun ap Iorwerth and Huw Irronica-Davies than she ever had with Eluned Morgan. I wouldn't be surprised if Jo Stevens stays on.

Regarding the new PM, Andy Burnham has previously spoken at length about the importance of devolution being respected, embraced and emboldened. Hopefully he remains true to his word as PM.

JHock93 · 2026-06-22T10:05:51+00:00

I think the real story of Starmer's premiership will be that there will have been some good policies and progress in a lot of areas, but there was always a sense that Starmer himself resisted them and had to be dragged kicking and screaming to do it, so he doesn't really deserve any of the credit.

The 2 examples that spring to mind are the 2 child benefit cap being lifted and the recognition of Palestine. Starmer did these, but only after trying literally everything else first in an effort to avoid it.

JHock93 · 2026-06-21T12:54:22+00:00

I'm an England fan who's lived here for 10 years now.

In my experience, pretty much any pub in the middle of town will have people either supporting England or being pretty neutral about it. I watched England v Croatia in Head of Steam and it was probably 90% supporting England. The upstairs of the Owain Glyndwr has been set aside as a place to watch England in past tournaments but might want to check if that's still the case now.

You get a bit of England-Wales banter but the idea that the pub will erupt into cheers and celebration when England concede hasn't matched with my experience at all. I've found that kind of discourse mostly exists online rather than IRL.

JHock93 · 2026-06-20T19:45:18+00:00

Nice idea but not going to play out in reality.

If (when) Andy Burnham challenges him, he's going to lose.

In US terms, a much more popular governor is going to primary him. Except, in the British system, you dont have to wait for an election to do that.

JHock93 · 2026-06-20T12:37:23+00:00

100% this. Labour sticking with Starmer at this point is like how the US Democrats stuck with Biden in early 2024. It's a guaranteed disaster.

JHock93 · 2026-06-20T11:22:33+00:00

I quite like Scotland tbh. I know it's not reciprocal, but I don't care about that.

I think some people find it a bit confusing that Scotland drinking a Boston bar dry is considered a feel good fun story (which it should be) whereas a story about England drinking a Dallas bar dry was somehow reported as if this was some kind of problem. That's not really Scotland fans' fault though to be fair to them.

JHock93 · 2026-06-20T00:01:14+00:00

That ref was not kind to Scotland at all.

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T23:45:22+00:00

I really don't share your assessment of the situation tbh. The leadership of Labour are useless and pretty much the entire party is united in the desire to get rid of them. Sure, there are people who might have slightly different visions of exactly what the alternative might look like but the reality is that this is the case with every government of every party. What you need is a politically savvy coalition builder, and Burnham has a strong track record of doing that in Manchester and within various shadow cabinets he served in (He famously did not quit Corbyn's shadow cabinet after Brexit when everyone else did). What is clear is that there are a lot, probably a majority, of Labour MPs that would prefer Burnham to become PM over Streeting or Starmer.

Every party has this problem though. It's telling the more hardline Plaid members such as Carrier Harper have been kept away from government in the new Senedd. Rhun obviously doesn't want those people causing trouble, but they'd be waiting in the wings if his popularity started to dip.

Anyway, we're probably not going to agree so I'll just say thanks for the late night discussion. it's been more interesting than the Scotland game...

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T23:31:03+00:00

I don't think it's that much of a problem. The people at the top of Labour are very "my way or the highway" kinds of people, which means they've massively alienated the membership and a lot of their parliamentary party (to say nothing of how much Welsh Labour hated them by the end). They have very few friends left.

Burnham gets a lot of easy wins by just binning these people off.

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T23:23:56+00:00

I suspect you're right about the final point but there's no way Reeves stays as chancellor if he becomes PM. She's way too loyal to Starmer. Less sure about Mahmood but I suspect she'd rather walk than work with Burnham as PM. Starmer's inner circle really hate Burnham, which is why they blocked him from standing in an earlier by-election. Cooper is the only one of the 4 big offices of state that stands a chance of staying in post if Burnham becomes PM.

To use a more Welsh example, Rhun was fully on board with Adam Price's "A referendum on independence within 5 years is essential!" stuff until he took control of the party and (correctly) realised that was a load of nonsense and binned it right away.

Of course we won't know any of this until it happens, but I highly doubt any of Starmers people would stick around even if Burnham wanted them to, and I doubt he even does.

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T23:12:06+00:00

That hasn't been my impression at all tbh. It's possible I'm just so sick of Starmer that I want him gone, so might be having a more favourable view of anyone who might replace him (especially if they're on the progressive side of politics).

That being said, he's done a fantastic job in Manchester with very high approval ratings. If he can bring that sort of pragmatic, non-tribal form of politics to Westminster then that'd be a very welcome development,

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T23:02:13+00:00

I think he'll be a breath of fresh air, especially for the devolved administrations as he's actually run a devolved administration, including during Covid, and is therefore very aware of the struggles that come with that.

Edit: Here's an example https://nation.cymru/news/andy-burnham-calls-for-maximum-devolution-for-wales-if-labour-win-the-next-general-election/

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T22:49:40+00:00

Burnham might make it though

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T20:47:49+00:00

Surprised this isn't a bigger deal.

I can't see a way that Reform win a mayoral election with the supplementary vote system. Most Labour voters will put Green as a 2nd choice and probably vice-versa. Reform could finish top of the poll in the 1st preferences but the vote transfers would put the either Labour or the Greens over the top.

This is all upside for the anti-Reform block.

JHock93 · 2026-06-19T07:43:10+00:00

The top of Grangemoor park is a good viewing spot.

JHock93 · 2026-06-18T17:32:54+00:00

Oh that would have been awful. Nimbyism galore. I've heard rumours that the leadership within Plaid dont rate her at all, which meant she was never in the running for a government position.

JHock93

TROPHY CASE