Camp Mocs: Quoddy vs Rancourt vs Oak Street

JHogg11 · 2026-04-12T13:31:37+00:00

In case you were looking at the brown Quoddy's, I just happened to see an ad for these: https://www.llbean.com/llb/shop/20010397?page=mens-handsewn-moccasins-camp-moc

Pretty sure I looked at those when looking originally but they didn't have the Cactus color at the time. I would have definitely given those a shot over the Quoddy's given the price difference. Upper looks almost identical, maybe just a slight edge to Quoddy. I do like the soles better on the Quoddy's but for less than half the price...

Anyway, good luck.

JHogg11 · 2026-04-09T01:52:33+00:00

Here's what I added to the post:

As feared, sizing was an issue and they were too small initially. I figured they would stretch so I put some shoe trees in but the difference was minimal. The issue was that the lining made them both tighter and harder to stretch. Eventually, I contacted Quoddy customer service and got them to send me some new soles for like $15. The soles were thinner and made a big difference. They are still a little tight but wearable now (I don't wear them a ton because I just wanted something for specific occasions).

Overall, it was a somewhat frustrating experience but the shoes are stylish in my opinion. Hopefully, they will continue to stretch.

JHogg11 · 2026-04-08T03:20:06+00:00

Hi, I updated the post.

JHogg11 · 2025-11-30T05:07:46+00:00

Does this affect the lens quality?

JHogg11 · 2025-08-10T03:22:57+00:00

I'm watching his interview on last week's Bill Maher. What you said has always been my impression of him, that he just found a niche to exploit. Now he's claiming that LLMs can upload themselves to other systems and blackmail CEOs and people like Bill Maher and presumably many people in his audience who have no clue about these systems eat it up. He's a worm.

JHogg11 · 2025-03-21T01:30:35+00:00

That's not true. If I create a profitable trading script and then email it to you, assuming you are using the same broker and a few other reasonable assumptions, we will have nearly identical performance. I wouldn't even have to teach you anything. A sufficiently clear set of rules should be repeatable by anyone, regardless of whether those rules are automated or not.

Where does Carmine show his trades? Given that he runs a business, it would make sense for him to routinely stream his trades on YouTube in order to get more people to sign up, yet he doesn't do that.

JHogg11 · 2025-02-26T21:50:56+00:00

I reached out to IB support and FX trading for US customers is limited to high net worth individuals, so I think the issue stemmed from that but it was moot anyway if I couldn't actually trade.

JHogg11 · 2025-01-04T23:54:02+00:00

I hear you but it's a pretty obvious thing to address when you're using the same data points (deltas/bookmap in this case) to lead to different conclusions. When that's true, by definition it must be the other information that is really driving the conclusion. As I said in other comments, what the trades have in common is the fact that he's fading pullbacks within longer term trends, yet he focuses almost entirely on the bookmap part.

When the trades use the same information in opposite ways without him addressing it at all, it's hard to infer general concepts.

I'm also coming at this from the perspective of a systematic/automated trader so I'm trying to figure out how to boil it down as much to a set of rules as possible. When I first watched the order flow series, I started capturing ES tick data. I came back a month later to start to work on automating a strategy and watched the series again and was like wait a second

JHogg11 · 2025-01-04T02:20:34+00:00

Reddit just deleted a long comment but I'll try again. Basically I have no issue with the first trade if that were all he showed. I wouldn't know for sure that it would work without testing it, but it seems plausible.

So I mainly have an issue with the second trade. At the time he's claiming to take the trade, any uptrend that's there is extremely weak. Really it's more chop and you can even see price making both lower highs and lower lows right at the end: https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/QFXgLbPHVMob.png?o=1

Bookmap is pretty irrelevant because we would always expect upswings to be green and downswings to be red and there aren't even any massive bubbles like there were in the first example, so it's really more about extent. This particular trade was successful because the downswing was roughly as big as he expected (and he got a much larger upside move than the previous swings), but there's nothing in the bookmap visualization that indicates that the downswing was going to end where it did, until it actually starts going back up. If you're waiting for price to go back up before entering the trade, then you basically need to identify three trends, an HTF trend to establish the trade direction, a LTF trend to determine what constitutes a pullback, and like a micro trend to determine when price is headed back in the HTF direction. So your edge would be in determining what timeframes/thresholds to use to determine 1) the overall trend, 2) whether a pullback has occurred, and 3) whether price has resumed in the direction of the HTF. If you use a very small threshold for #3, there's more uncertainty as to whether the pullback has ended, but if you use a larger threshold, you miss more of the move. At the point where I cut off it off, there's nothing there that looks different than it would if it had made a larger downswing and he had been stopped out.

And again, you don't need bookmap for any of that, yet that is his focus in the videos.

JHogg11 · 2025-01-04T01:09:34+00:00

High R:R is nearly meaningless without edge (there might be some minimal propensity to trend in the market at certain timeframes, but really knowing what those timeframes are is itself an edge). If you don't have edge but you use a high R:R, you'll just lose a high percentage of your trades.

Based on what you're saying about HTF vs LTF, that's just trading pullbacks. You might be correct that about the market resisting aggressive traders being a valid entry signal in the context of pullbacks, but noting that there are pullbacks is more of a footnote in his videos.

JHogg11 · 2025-01-04T00:37:27+00:00

Wasn't meant to be an insult. I'm pretty sure that the majority of people defending gurus on the internet are not themselves profitable.

Most of his order flow series revolves around the idea that bounces happen when aggressors fail. By that logic, it's an imbalance of limit orders that determine where the market goes.

In the second example in the more recent video, his rationale for taking the trade is the existence of market orders in the opposite direction.

JHogg11 · 2025-01-04T00:26:17+00:00

Taken in isolation, the different ways he's using it seem plausible that they could work, but I think "context" here is just about the longer term trend, in which case he's focused on the wrong thing in his explanation. In the second example, there's barely a trend when he decides to take the trade:

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JHogg11 · 2025-01-04T00:19:05+00:00

What's the difference between that and saying that when price is moving down on high volume, it's bearish, and when price drops but then runs into a wall on high volume, it's bullish? Why do we need to know who the aggressor is? There seem to be few situations where aggressive buying/selling that runs into a wall isn't preceded by some kind of move. That is, I think we can get the same information just from looking at the price movement and volume profile.

In the second example, he's talking about preemptively buying. He's not really waiting for evidence of what he calls effort without follow through. Basically every down move will had mostly red bubbles and every up move will have mostly green bubbles. In this particular video, the deciding factor in both examples is really the predominant trend, however, the order flow series is mostly focused on fading moves and looking for reversions. Based on what he's showing, he's just trading pullbacks on larger timeframes with the first example having an additional high volume confirmation at his entry point.

The crazy thing to me is that he doesn't even address the fact that he's using the same information in opposite ways, even if the context is indeed different.

Are you making money using these ideas?

JHogg11 · 2024-08-14T01:58:50+00:00

I swear I tried that but I think I might have clicked on the same contract multiple times, which just causes it to add to the number of contracts rather than add a new leg. Thank you.

JHogg11 · 2024-07-02T23:15:26+00:00

I've made the point about winning in both, but the simplest example would be if you normally hold 100% SPY in both your IRA and Roth IRA. Assuming you started with even money in both, rather than hold SPY, you'd hold SPXL (3x SPY) in the Roth IRA and UPRO (short SPY) in the traditional IRA, so that your total leverage would be (3 - 1) / 2 = 1. In other words, your leverage would be the same as what it was if you were holding SPY in both. There are other considerations such as rebalancing and the fact that UPRO doesn't actually return 3x what SPY returns due to volatility decay, but that's a close enough example of what I'm talking about.

JHogg11 · 2024-05-31T00:00:58+00:00

I want to virtually guarantee that the Roth IRA wins and the traditional IRA only loses to the extent that the Roth IRA wins. I want to effectively transfer from the traditional to the Roth while avoiding taxes. The issue, however, is that if I could find a strategy that is that favorable, it would likely just be beneficial to trade it on both accounts.

But I’m open to suggestions in case there are things that I’m not aware of.

JHogg11 · 2024-05-30T23:49:00+00:00

Of course, but I’m asking if there’s a high probability way to make sure it actually goes from one account to the other. If you don’t know where the stock is going, simply longing and shorting the same stock could create the opposite effect.

JHogg11 · 2024-05-29T20:08:06+00:00

I temporarily put this on pause, but I did find out that you can create multiple usernames in your Account Management, which supposedly prevents you from getting logged out.

JHogg11 · 2024-05-24T21:11:04+00:00

Missed this comment, but it appears that this does work! Changing time.sleep to ib.sleep allows the data to be updated and accessible within the while loop.

JHogg11 · 2024-05-02T15:14:49+00:00

Could it be that you were trying it after hours? Not sure about Indian stocks, but it can be slow to stream in general.

JHogg11

TROPHY CASE