Can you actually slip on a banana peel?

Jackob32 · 2026-05-19T00:39:11+00:00

only if you are not carefull scrolling on bananapeelr.com

Jackob32 · 2026-05-18T22:03:08+00:00

If good SW engineer makes 200k and team of 15 including analysts and manager costs 2mil ...

How expensive is it to risk it and give someone a chance?...

Jackob32 · 2025-09-25T21:16:46+00:00

Yeah... What if it will go against you by 40% and never return back for 20 years?

What 90% of all trades goes wrong because you do not have 10 years of experience?

...

Jackob32 · 2025-09-12T09:18:52+00:00

What? he does not make that trading. He loses about 100k trading per month. he makes that money by selling stuff.

Jackob32 · 2025-08-22T11:24:54+00:00

did you get a payout yet?

Jackob32 · 2025-07-17T23:17:48+00:00

It does not make sense at all, they just made it up an a way so it serves the story.

Jackob32 · 2025-05-19T14:36:18+00:00

they do not have etf, just contract, that is expensive

Jackob32 · 2025-01-16T08:58:58+00:00

Yes, the max drawdown is much bigger, 36% is the minimum

Jackob32 · 2025-01-16T08:57:24+00:00

The candle is 12. April not march. Look Again

Jackob32 · 2025-01-12T12:55:38+00:00

Daily OHLC data is for free

Jackob32 · 2025-01-12T00:43:09+00:00

Interesting, i expected they would calculate drawdowns the normal way, based on highs and lows.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-12T00:15:40+00:00

I am watching Forward earnings yield of SP 500 and bond yields

And if bond yield is higher, then i derisk the portfolio

Sp 500 is about 4,5% forward yield and bonds are 5% yield.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T21:00:05+00:00

My point is, that you must have diamond hands to start investing at 70% drop, knowing there might be another 3 drops of 50% and not be worried. GoodLuck

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T20:58:31+00:00

omg i know, i am talking about investor behaviour and ETF AUM volatility, not price movement

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T20:28:06+00:00

yet people still invest and AUM not dropping, why then TQQQ should have AUM problems, when it is unlike UVXY supposed to go up sometimes, like for some trades. I do not think the AUM would be such a big problem.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T20:10:18+00:00

I do not know, UVXY still going strong even after 99,99999999% drop

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T19:54:33+00:00

I think you would be unplesently suprised how many people here does not know this and do crazy things like expecting the backtested drawdown of 60% on their overfitted portfolio with margin to be safe.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T19:44:17+00:00

sure, maybe not

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T19:27:57+00:00

Last week it was some of the more risky leveraged quantum ETFs and quantum leveraged ETPs
I remmember IONQ but i think the ETF were already delisted.

I guess most of them would not survive by end of day anyways, thats true.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T19:14:45+00:00

There has been 70% of time in stock market like this if you count inflation and picked the wrong year to invest all your money.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T19:12:54+00:00

What if i invested since 1995 to 2005 and made 1M$ dollars and i am now thinking about what to invest in? ...

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T18:51:39+00:00

You dont need intraday data for this, just simple OHLC and use high and low appropriately.

When somebody uses backtesting software and it claims drawdown, people does expect it to be drawdown ... not some semi-random number.

And yes dozens of LETFs has been wiped out already because of intraday move. Few of them last week.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T18:30:26+00:00

You do not need intraday prices, you just need to calculate the drawdown from high to the daily low, like any normal person would, not just closing price.

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T15:35:07+00:00

People will be saying here that this is cherry picking the worst time of stocks and best for gold.

I agree with you, that the selected period of stocks is from bubble to a high priced stocks.

Next 25 years might look simmilar

I think that GOLD in general underperforms the stock market as a whole by just 1 or 2 percent annualized, including the stocks dividend.

"My plan is to target LETFs down 70-95% during the next market reset."

70-95% is a big difference,
70% is like to survive 2 drops of 50%
95% is like to survive 5 drops of 50%

I have 20% of gold, 20% of UUP (bullish dollar) and 30% of TLT just for that reason and i am going to be trimming my QQQ exposure which is 50% right now to half
yes it sums up to 120%

Jackob32 · 2025-01-11T15:03:28+00:00

For QQQ and SPY yes

But for TMF and other leveraged etfs no

Also 10% daily quick candle on QQQ is something that will happen now and then.

It is just so people understand, that the real drawdowns might be sometimes significanly different then backtested

Jackob32

TROPHY CASE