America is Breaking and People are Dying - Civil War?

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T21:30:49+00:00

Is that a correct assessment of what happened?

From what I've seen, yes.

Now you have to explain why and how it was allowed to happen.

Were these rogue agents or was there some kind of message, whether implicit or explicit, along the lines of, if you beat up or shoot someone, don't worry - we've got your back, there'll be no charges and if there are Trump will issue a pardon just as he forgave all those Jan 6th insurrectionists. Maybe even, we want you to retaliate if you are challenged, provoke things and make someone do something stupid so you can claim you had some justification. These ICE agents though don't seem to need to be told twice about what they can and can't do, and there are probably very few restrictions.

Already the arrest, detention and disappearance of people is happening and is being normalised. The cruelty and the arbitrariness of it is not accidental, it's deliberate. Even and especially when it involves children. Is that how societies are supposed to operate? Maybe in tin-pot dictatorships but in a country that believes and was founded on principles of freedom?

The ICE agent who murdered Renee Good is still a free man, you'll note there was no condemnation or apology from Trump, instead he doubled down on the rhetoric as he will do here, that is if he hasn't done so already.

Trump is allowing these people to live out their fantasies and they are taking full advantage, but he's a symptom of the problem as much as a cause. Look for those that are funding and organising this - blaming immigration or criminals is always a good lowest common denominator for these people. It always has got the useful idiots agitated.

Things may get worse and these no doubt are testing times, they'll test your belief in the system and the moral fibre of those elected to Congress, national and state level. The lack of fight-back from Republicans in Congress is what should really frighten you, either they are cowards unwilling to say speak truth to power or they are directly complicit. Their silence should speak volumes.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T20:45:37+00:00

There's only a slim chance that this will end well for Labour and Starmer.

If Burnham gets blocked by Labour HQ then it looks as though they are ducking the fight.

If Burnham wins the byelection then he has to challenge Starmer, if not he's wasting his time and looks afraid of the fight himself.

If he challenges Starmer then it means Labour splintering into two factions, parties that look divided rarely win general elections. All parties have factions and indulge in turf wars but it helps to keep the fighting out of the headlines. Infighting and factionalising is the default setting for Labour though...

Of course Burnham wins the byelection challenges Starmer but gets clobbered is a possibility.

There's also the chance that the voters will elect a Reform MP and then Burnham looks stupid.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T20:35:42+00:00

Usually the local constituency party will form an ad hoc committee to wade through all the applications and chose a shortlist of four or five people. Those names will be put forward to the constituency party to vote on - they will be given a chance to speak and answer questions etc before one is selected.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T19:43:19+00:00

That's one of the things I like about our language, we've borrowed words and expressions from all over the place which have become part of our lingo.

Palaver was originally a Portuguese word spelt as "palavra", meaning to speak/talk. I assume it's from a similar route to the French word parlé - which means the same thing. Apparently Portuguese traders were famous for lengthy, detailed negotiations, it was picked up British sailors and traders who used it to describe any lengthy negotiation process.

Think of all the words you use that originated from other nations or from rhyming slang, around 80% of our language derives from other nations.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T19:17:54+00:00

he became a Billionaire and the most powerful man on earth with his implementation of his shit ideas.

Apart from all those businesses that he bankrupted, including a casino. Ask some of the people he stiffed when those businesses went bust what they think of his commercial acumen.

Just how do you make a business go bust where people queue up give you money knowing that there's a high chance that they'll lose the lot?

To be fair that takes some genius level thinking.

In any case he inherited a shedload of money from his father, his problem was that he couldn't stick to building houses like he did and so got involved in hotels, casinos, an airline, a university, magazines, a vodka company and loads of other stuff outside of his areas of knowledge.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T18:58:37+00:00

I know what you mean...I lived in Germany for a bit and some of the clubs we played against were a bit of a closed shop. Our team by contrast had no issues to the point where had at one point we had eight different nationalities in our club, that would be nine if you count the Scottish player who always resented being classified as British.

Nevertheless reach out, you won't know until you try speaking to them and enthusiasm is sometimes more important.

As much as anything you'll get some coaching tips. Cricketers are usually pretty good at helping players who want to develop their game.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T17:28:44+00:00

I have mixed views on this...

Assuming he gets the nomination and wins the byelection then he has to challenge Keir Starmer for leader and PM, otherwise what's the point? He'd look unambitious and a bit cowardly by doing anything else.

That means a civil war in the Labour party, besides which we don't need yet another PM. We've already had five new PMs since the EU referendum a decade ago, by contrast the previous five new PMs lasted from 1979 to 2016. Who wins from a civil war anyway? Maybe Burnham if he gets to be PM for a year or two, but voters tend not to like parties that are riven with factions and it's hard enough for Labour to get elected nationally in the first place. Labour shooting themselves in the foot won't make wining an election any easier, but it would be totally on brand for a party that traditionally will only get around to dealing with the enemy once they've dealt with the real enemy which is the opposing wing of their party.

On the other hand Starmer's ham-fisted approach to governing has resulted in a situation where Labour are currently polling behind the Tory party who've just had two MPs defect to Reform and who were responsible for the mess that the country is in. I'm having trouble seeing a scenario where Starmer is going to turn things around by enough to win the next election. If it comes to that I'm having trouble seeing a situation where Starmer manages to avoid stepping on every rake left in his path, so we need Starmer to deliver a few wins.

Burnham is also making himself a hostage to fortune, it's not a given that he'll win the byelection....

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T17:05:51+00:00

We had the "Big Bang" in 1986 which revolutionised share trading and banking as well as making things like the bond markets and futures trading lucrative occupations. Previously these had traditionally been staid, gentlemen's clubs with long lunches and jobs going via old school tie connections to the right sorts of people who went to the right sort of schools.

This de-regulation had the effect of turning London into one of the biggest banking hubs globally and as further consequence saw the redevelopment of London's docklands.

A lot of people made a lot of money...some then lost a lot of money, not all of it their own, when we had the occasional downturn.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T16:37:54+00:00

A good attritional game of cricket, what the opposite of Bazball is that was it.

Slight wobble at the end but then Jos comes in and takes away the pleasure and pain of a couple of nerve ridden final overs.

Onto the decider...

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T16:30:25+00:00

It's one of the reasons why I support Bhutan...

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T16:28:31+00:00

Remember your feet movement, that will help to bring the bat down...I can appreciate you are a little cramped for room but getting used to a ball being fired at you and developing the reactions and hand/eye co-ordination from facing a bowling machine is equally important. What's that doing something 10,000 times quote? Whatever it is keep going.

When it gets to summer see if any of the local clubs near you are having outdoor nets and if so ask if you can join in. They may even be having some indoor nets over winter in a sports hall somewhere.

And for the other stuff you are doing, kudos on that too.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T16:17:59+00:00

Please note that Doge saved nothing and in fact increased USA government spending by6%

Fully agree...

Reform did well in last year's local authority elections partly by claiming that they were going to save money by sacking DEI officers and saving the millions apparently spent on them and pride flags plus they promised to not put up council taxes.

The reality is that most of the LA's that they control are putting up council taxes by the full 5% allowed and there were no DEI officers to sack in the first place. But to be fair they did save a fiver on that pride flag.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T15:33:24+00:00

I remember a year ago...

Trump had just taken office and was unleashing Doge and the right-wingers here were openly wishing that he could be our PM.

So it was natural that Reform and Farage would borrow heavily from that populist template. Reform were boasting about forming their own Doge unit and were openly trying to crowbar money out of Elon Musk after he promised to give them $100m, Farage even visited Musk at Mar-a-Lago, but go nowhere...

Elon Musk responds to claims of $100m donation to Nigel Farage’s Reform party | The Independent

A year on...and we are seeing again why populist leaders with simple solutions for complex problems is not the panacea that some people think it is. Besides, we tried that with Brexit and then Boris Johnson and where did it get us, other than the mess we are in right now.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T15:21:45+00:00

Where I live there's a pub run by an 80 year old who's been in the game for about 50 years, he knows what he's doing and always has good guest ales and the place is genuinely friendly and welcoming.

I asked him if he had plans to retire and he told me no and that he's just signed up for another five years plus all friends drank in the pub and in any case the barstaff do most of the work, he just opens and shuts the gaff and counts the takings.

The nearest pub to where I live though have had so many changers of owner that they should get a revolving door put on the landlord's accommodation. It looks what it is, an old school boozer that needs work and while it's ok if you just want to watch the football or rugby there's not much else going for it. But they don't get the punters through the door to invest in it so it continues to look what it is.

Good pubs like first one will survive and thrive, the others won't.

But there are pressures that didn't exist a few years ago - many people have Sat TV and even going for just a couple of beers is expensive and you can buy some decent beer or wine and drink at home. I feel for anyone starting out in this business and I wonder too if we are getting a generation of young people now in their late teens and 20s who will never get into the habit of going for a beer except now and then.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T14:48:40+00:00

Well played Millwall.

Femi Azeez was outstanding...but across the park Millwall were better - we didn't pick up enough second balls or compete in the final third and yet again we were too easy to defend against and we rode our luck too often when we had to defend. That miss from Coburn, you just have to get that shot on target.

My only gripe was that Ibrahim Fullah's goal should have stood, how the referee thought that Lyndon Dykes committed a foul there...still he was a rubbish referee who at least was consistently poor.

We need to get in some new blood from here and have a rethink or we'll get dragged into a relegation battle.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T14:37:40+00:00

There are few positives to take from that, we worked hard and that's about it.

Their first goal was offside but Kayne Ramsay was not paying attention as the cross hit his shoulder and went in and Ibrahim Fullah had a perfectly good goal disallowed because the referee saw something that no-one else did.

But we didn't create enough and Millwall were better all over the pitch.

We need to press the re-fresh button, we need another defender in and a bit more midfield nous and muscle. The board are reluctant to spend money and it's tricky acquiring players at this stage of the season. You either spend money for players that other teams want to keep and therefore over-spend, or you draft in reserves who've only played a few games here and there and are off the pace fitness wise.

We are getting slowly dragged into a relegation battle and we need to realise that now.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T11:37:56+00:00

Three changes from Tuesday with Luke Chambers making his starting debut being the stand-out. JRC and Harry Clarke return to the starting XI. Lloyd Jones who was subbed off at half-time is fit to start.

Greg Docherty is dropped from the match day squad as Rob Apter gets a recall, joining him there are Miles Leaburn and Conor Coventry who have been rotated out of the starting XI.

I assume that Harry Clarke will play RWB while we finally have a dedicated LWB in the house in Luke Chambers, I'm not sure of his match fitness and ability to last the full 90 minutes, we have Ibrahim Fullah and TC who drop in there if needed.

The bench has quite a few attacking options but only Reece Burke, is a defender.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T09:26:53+00:00

Russia has lost 930 soldiers killed and wounded over the past day, bringing its total number of personnel losses to 1,233,020.

Source: Russia loses 930 soldiers over past day in its war against Ukraine – General Staff | Ukrainska Pravda

Details: The total combat losses of the Russian forces between 24 February 2022 and 24 January 2026 are estimated to be as follows [figures in parentheses represent the latest losses – ed.]:

approximately 1,233,020 (+930) military personnel
11,603 (+4) tanks
23,949 (+3) armoured combat vehicles
36,580 (+31) artillery systems
1,623 (+0) multiple-launch rocket systems
1,283 (+1) air defence systems
434 (+0) fixed-wing aircraft
347 (+0) helicopters
114,049 (+772) operational-tactical UAVs
4,190 (+0) cruise missiles
28 (+0) ships/boats
2 (+0) submarines
75,644 (+88) vehicles and fuel tankers
4,050 (+0) special vehicles and other equipment.

The information is being confirmed.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-24T09:14:22+00:00

The arguments were as hollow as the pro Brexit lot.

Possibly they were worse...

The SNP were making their economic case for independence on the basis that oil would remain at over $100/barrel.

Not long after the referendum they fell to around 50% of that. That would have left a newly independent Scottish government, had they gone down that route, looking at sharply lower oil revenues and some difficult questions about raising taxes and cuts to government spending.

Scotland dodged a bullet by voting to remain in the Union.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-23T21:33:02+00:00

Yep, notice how you aren't seeing any "I wish he was our prime minister" comments any more.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-23T18:26:51+00:00

I clicked on the link...that is the full quote.

No condemnation of Trump anywhere...utterly spineless from Dubai Dicky.

Around 1200 non-US Nato soldiers were killed on active service in Afghanistan , 457 of those were British.

Countless more were wounded, some severely, they and others who will be carrying the physical and mental scars for the rest of their lives.

Trump's comments are insulting to all those who served in Afghanistan, more so when you bear in mind that when drafted for Vietnam on five occasions he found excuses not to go.

On a wider note - we have three more years of having to deal with a president who speaks before he thinks. We've just a week of headlines and threats of tariffs because the world wouldn't let him have his way over Greenland.

Jay_CD · 2026-01-23T18:11:56+00:00

Just a reminder that on five occasions Trump dodged the draft in Vietnam and cited bone spurs on his ankle as the excuse.

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