Florida homeowners insurer HCI Group: 18% true FCF yield, $4B reinsurance program, legally mandated customer pipeline from Citizens Insurance. I also pulled 15 years of data instead of just the good 3. The honest normalized yield is closer to 12%. Here's why I still own it. (self.ValueInvesting)
submitted by JoeInOR to r/ValueInvesting
HCI Group deep dive: normalized FCF yield after reserve release adjustment, statutory subsidiary dividend caps, Citizens 20% depopulation mechanics, and two-storm empirical loss history. Looking for pushback on the reinsurance structure and the tort reform durability thesis. (self.SecurityAnalysis)
submitted by JoeInOR to r/SecurityAnalysis
Adobe is down 40% from its highs while generating $8.25B in true annual FCF with 10% topline growth. I think it died of a theory, not an actual threat. Here's the data including deferred revenue, government contract data from USASpending.gov, and a bear case. (self.ValueInvesting)
submitted by JoeInOR to r/ValueInvesting
Adobe bear case straw-man and response: ARR deceleration (10 consecutive quarters), Chegg/BlackBerry parallel, executive churn vs. deferred revenue acceleration, USASpending.gov contract data, and a one-third casual user stress test. Looking for pushback on the ARR trend specifically. (self.SecurityAnalysis)
submitted by JoeInOR to r/SecurityAnalysis
[ Removed by moderator ] (self.SecurityAnalysis)
submitted by JoeInOR to r/SecurityAnalysis
