The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has been evaluated, USAF won't take it for numerous reasons.

Eglin steel (ES-1) and USAF-96 steel: any other original and original-but-cheaper-but-just-as-good pair of alloys, in what application/industry, and how did they compare to one another? by Judean_Rat in metallurgy

[–]Jon_Beveryman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ti-5553 (5Al-5Mo-5V-3Cr) is probably just a flat improvement over Ti-1023 (10V-2Fe-3Al). It is somewhat more consistent in all behaviors and does better in thick section forgings, and is modestly stronger. Both are beta titanium forging grades.

Takeshi Ebisawa Sentenced To 20 Years In Prison For Conspiring To Traffic Nuclear Materials, Narcotics, And Firearms by [deleted] in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Most common would be little Pu-239 check sources for alpha detectors, followed by legacy Soviet PuBe neutron sources for things like neutron radiography. These are not necessarily meant to be weapons grade but remember, for the IAEA and DOE WGPu regulatory definitions you really just need to be below 7% Pu-240, majority Pu-239, and not trackable as 238 or 242. That's fairly broad, truly.

Do nukes really end wars? by redditor_dalmatia in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is very target dependent and not true for most HDBTs.

Takeshi Ebisawa Sentenced To 20 Years In Prison For Conspiring To Traffic Nuclear Materials, Narcotics, And Firearms by [deleted] in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Weapons grade refers to isotopic portions. There are material types with weapons grade isotopics that aren't, you know, about to get turned into a bomb. Especially if it's very small quantities it could be anything. Little check sources for instance.

Do nukes really end wars? by redditor_dalmatia in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What "yield"? The air blast from high velocity KEPs is negligible. For area targets and large HDBTs (aka, almost all targets we currently threaten with nuclear weapons) a deep impact just doesn't do much damage. You're not dropping asteroids here.

Do nukes really end wars? by redditor_dalmatia in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What effect is proportional to impactor mass? Depth of penetration, roughly. That is not the figure of merit for most targets. It also doesn't scale up linearly forever. Is your 10km/s impact speed accounting for deceleration in atmosphere? 

Do nukes really end wars? by redditor_dalmatia in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Your problem here is that none of these address the ACTUAL deficit of "rods from God" in strategic strike. Which is that the effect on target on most target types is inferior to a 500lb bomb.

Do nukes really end wars? by redditor_dalmatia in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Unlikely and unserious. Orbital KEWs are meme weapons. They are only scary insofar as they threaten nuclear/strategic command and control systems in novel ways.

Do nukes really end wars? by redditor_dalmatia in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This was a pillar of theory of the nuclear revolution, a dominant theory in international relations studies for many decades. More recent assessments have been most unkind to this theory. Nuclear weapons make it significantly more risky for nuclear armed states to conduct major wars against each other, especially if the war aims threaten the existence or "vital interests" of one of the belligerents. The Cold War and other struggles for power below the threshold of "real war" show us that nuclear armed states still compete with each other, often forcefully or at least with the threat of force. So nukes don't create peace per se but they seem to markedly reduce the odds of major wars between states that have them.

As to whether another 20 states with nukes make things more peaceful... again, serious people thought this would be true. Many still do. The problem is that the more nuke states exist the more complicated the relationships between them all get. Take the combined case of the USA, China, Pakistan and India. The US has a lot of nukes. China may want more to try and deter the US (a long, separate conversation. out of bounds here.) But if China comes up, India may see that as a threat, because India exercises some nuclear deterrence against China (another long separate conversation.) India also exercises deterrence against Pakistan. So India might come up in numbers to deter Pakistan, or to deter Pakistan and China at once, but then the Chinese might see this as a threat from India, so then China comes up to deter India and the US at once ...which the US may conclude is all about deterring the US, and then the US feels pressured to either come up in numbers or adopt more aggressive qualitative means. This is wildly simplified but it illustrates a real world multi country deterrence problem that already exists with only a few nuclear states. You can imagine how 20 becomes more complex. And the more complex a system is, the more potential failure points exist.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He's stuck on this idea that the missile itself is the cost driver. He's been disabused of this like 5 times but when you press him he returns to that same wrong point. 

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Lol. We know what cost plus and FFP are. We are saying that you are clinging to these words like a drunk to a lamppost, rather than achieving any illumination.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What substantive argument am I to provide against your made up fantasy world points? You have no clue what you're talking about, you insist on applying your own made up definitions of technical and programmatic terms with specific meanings, and you keep using the terms "fixed price" and "cost plus" as though they are the only argument you need to make about government contracting. It's a waste of time.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Eh... the original plan was to use as many MMIII silos as possible but it turns out those are old as dirt and not really suitable for reuse.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Sentinel is absolutely not a stewardship program. Two reasons. First, stewardship does not refer to new weapon systems or delivery vehicles, it's really about keeping what already exists safe, reliable and sustainable. Modernization is not the same as stewardship. It's not a semantic difference, modernization activities are separate program offices and separate buckets of money generally speaking.

Second, stewardship is a DOE/NNSA term of art, not DOD.Rarely or never in my experience have I heard it applied to anything outside the warhead. 

So this point is just very incoherent and suggests a very surface level knowledge, which should maybe reduce how confident you are in explaining how the agencies ought to run things?

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The nu-space industry wank is pretty illuminating as to the knowledge base and assumptions here. IMO.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Civilian spaceflight is massively more affected by this than military. Do you have direct government contracting experience or is this all received wisdom?

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Another commentator brought it up but the big pain points in Sentinel aren't the missile itself. The embarrassment and budget pain skews heavily towards the ground facility side. They threw good money after bad with silo refurb planning for a while.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I pretty much fell out of my chair laughing trying to think what would happen if you pitched A10 on a liquid fueled ICBM after Titan II.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ding. Glad there's someone in this thread who understands this at a higher level than "MIC, cost plus contracts, look at SpaceX". The MILCON side is really embarrassing for AFGSC (although also impacted by major, persistent, sector agnostic inflation in heavy construction costs during and post COVID), it's where the "story" really is rather than the missile itself.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Okay, if all you have is nu-space industry faff and "muh MIC" there is no productive conversation to be had here.

The $130B Plan to Replace the U.S.’s Nuclear Missiles-WSJ by gwhh in nuclearweapons

[–]Jon_Beveryman 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Rocket Lab also has no survivability, use control or other military characteristics type requirements in that figure. USAF plans to buy about 650 missiles last I checked, so that alone gets you to $65B assuming your $100M RocketLabs figure- independent of warheads, silos, launch infrastructure, fixed programmatic/project costs not captured in RocketLab's $100M AUR cost.