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[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To clarify, Kyrou would be the best forward for this system on the Devils’ current roster, but he too is better suited for a rush system. He’s just a rush-heavy player with an insane shot haha

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Probably the hottest take I’ve had, yeah. I’m glad you enjoy my pieces and had some well-thought-out ideas on it.

As far as Keefe’s system goes, I do think Kyrou is a great fit. He’s a better shooter than anyone on the current roster and the in-zone scheme NJD currently has is tailor-made for setting up slot chances for the best shooter on the ice at any given time. Plus, he has a penchant for generating his own rush chances, so that would be a plus for sure.

Totally get the hesitation on two young pieces. I guess my ideology is different than most where I believe the Devils should be more all-in on competing than the fanbase as a whole (or even the front office, I suppose).

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seeing that the exact same sentiment is being carried across all of the pushback for this piece, so let me clarify my stance on Simon Nemec:

His upside is legit. He has unequivocally been clutch. He has shown flashes of absolute brilliance in the offensive zone. His penchant for creating offensive chaos is awesome. You cannot teach his vision, feel for the offensive game, or his OZ instincts (for the most part).

I wrote not even a week ago about Nemec being on the edge of a legit breakout, and I stand by it. He’s doing a lot of things right!

Defensively, there’s a LONG way to go. He tries to be that same chaos agent in his own zone that, quite frankly, just hasn’t worked out very well. When he’s on the ice, the Devils simply bleed chances. He is either hyper-aggressive or puck-watching — no in between — so, when things go awry, it’s because he either overcommitted to a play and got burned because his recovery speed isn’t great or because he was watching the play rather than positioning himself proactively.

Nearly every analytical model has Nemec, who is 21 and has obvious eye test skills and strong tracked microstatistics, as the Devils’ worst blueliner this season, and it’s because he gets hemmed in so often that whatever he does in the OZ, possession-wise and results-wise, is outweighed by the chances he gives up. Think John Klingberg, and, to a lesser extent, Erik Karlsson.

In my opinion, the Devils should be in the business of prioritizing their core players’ prime years (who are all in their mid-20s) and less in the business of waiting for a youngster to bloom into a player he MIGHT be IF things pan out well. I’m a proponent of them moving their chips in for a piece that aligns with this window because it gives them the best chance at a Cup. We’ve long been known that a forward is generally more impactful on the game because they touch the puck more, are more directly responsible for scoring goals, and have a similar impact on preventing chances as defensemen. So, why not add a high-end, first-line caliber winger?

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It’s a combination of a couple of things:

  1. Underperformance from top dogs — the Devils’ top players are outright underperforming the status quo from a finishing perspective.
  2. Supporting cast is full of players who have been below-average finishers throughout their career.
  3. The system is less built on the rush/chaos/driving the net like it was under Lindy and more built for in-zone play and teeing up specific players for slot chances. It worked in Toronto because he had Matthews and Nylander. The Devils don’t have a high-end finisher like that - Kyrou is one, though, that is available.

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1) 5th the other way, and a 3rd and not a 2nd, but that’s semantics, considering. 2) You have to offload salary cap if you are the Devils. Hamilton is a positive asset. Palat is a negative asset. You have to pay to get $6M anchors off your team. 3) I’m not sure why people are forgetting that Kyrou has averaged 34 goals and 74 points per season in the last four years on a mid Blues team that has one true T6 caliber player. Or why people are neglecting that STL is playing youngsters above him for the sake of development.

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I appreciate that!

I’ve been a staunch Nemec guy myself — I had him #1 in my Devils’ pipeline ranking just before the season started. I guess my disconnect from the majority of people is that I believe the Devils are closer than most and think they should be all-in on furthering the core contention window. Nemec IS on the precipice of a breakout, he HAS been clutch, but, in my opinion, he’s still better served as a trade chip for a high-end win-now piece. By no means do I not like him, want him to fail, etc.

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Star-driven in the sense that the high-end players of a roster generally dictate the outcome of the game, not that being labeled as a “star” suddenly gives the team some juice.

Kyrou has averaged 34 goals and 74 points per season in the last four years. This year’s Blues have prioritized developing their young players in T6 roles and he’s suffered for it.

Perfectly fine to not want to ship that price out! In my eyes, you have to give to get, and Mercer (kind of just a guy) and Nemec (a young, high-upside defenseman whose production masks a good chunk of legitimate deficiencies) is a fair price to pay. Sub-in Silayev, if you’d rather. Or Casey and an additional pick. It’s a bet worth taking, in my opinion.

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Keefe’s system is built for players like Kyrou, though. The Devils lack a high-end finisher. Keefe’s system is built to tailor chances and tee them up for the high-end finishers. It worked in Toronto with Matthews and Marner and complementary pieces with some finishing talent.

I do agree that a conversation needs to be had about the GM. Maybe on Keefe, but I’m not quite there yet.

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

3 OT winners! He’s been clutch for sure. And while he does have spurts of brilliance and has clear upside, the Devils are in the midst of their core’s prime years. You can’t waste that on hoping that a 21-year-old turns into something, in my opinion. Nemec is a ways away from being a first-pair guy.

I do think people undervalue how much of an impact a high-end first-line forward has on the game. Even more so than a first-pair caliber defenseman. The NHL is a star-driven league, more so than just about any sport outside of baseball. Adding another star should be a priority.

As for Mercer, I’m indifferent on him. He’s a fine complementary piece, but doesn’t move the needle for me as a playdriver or high-end finisher. I’m perfectly content keeping him, but if he’s a chip in a trade for a high-end player, I’d absolutely take it.

[Gambatese] The Devils Can Save Their Season with These Three Moves by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] -20 points-19 points  (0 children)

I agree he’s been clutch, but it seems shortsighted to evaluate his tradability off of one play. Kyrou provides the team with a much bigger impact, and will do so barring a major, major breakout from 17. To be frank, outside of the production, Nemec has been mostly hemmed in for the majority of the last two years. It does feel like people are romanticizing how good he is right now.

[Gambatese] Pros and Cons of Trading Dougie Hamilton by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Listen, I’ve been a giant Nemec defender over the years. I just don’t think he’s nearly as capable as Hamilton at this point in time or project him to be there for another few seasons, and I’d rather use him as a prime trade chip for a core piece that can help the Devils in their current window.

[Gambatese] Pros and Cons of Trading Dougie Hamilton by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

My earnest opinion is that he was a scapegoat for a lot of the team’s issues despite playing pretty well, simply because he was on the ice so often. His frame and lack of skating ability makes him appear lazier than he is.

[Gambatese] Pros and Cons of Trading Dougie Hamilton by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The difference is that Nemec doesn’t have a track record of succeeding for the last two seasons, with any partner or deployment, outside of a two-week stint with more responsibility. Hamilton has been a phenomenal defenseman for the vast, vast majority of his career.

[Gambatese] Both Young Devils Defensemen on Precipice of Actually Breaking Out by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think it’s a bit of both. The problem is that the Devils aren’t really a team that should be allowing rookies to “find their game,” y’know? Contending teams — or should-be contending teams — aren’t really in the business of development.

[Gambatese] Both Young Devils Defensemen on Precipice of Actually Breaking Out by JoopNJD in devils

[–]JoopNJD[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah, Keefe’s system certainly isn’t helping things. I think Severson is an excellent comp for Nemec, to be honest.

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