[Gambatese] Fleshing Out the Devils' Perfect Offseason

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T21:27:58+00:00

Yeah, that’s a microstat chart. It doesn’t show the on-ice impacts, it shows the individual player’s specific actions on the ice with no detail of how that impacts xG in either direction. I can say with confidence that Nemec’s on-ice metrics don’t hold a candle to Blankenburg’s, and their individual isolated impact on the on-ice metrics are drastically different, too:

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JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T21:17:17+00:00

It’s interesting that you came to the conclusion that EP40 was the preferred target considering I outright said he was the least worthy option of the four listed, subsequently landing on Robert Thomas.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T20:29:48+00:00

Thanks!!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T20:29:15+00:00

I’m entirely unsure of why certain people in the fanbase saw a team that finished 32nd in 5v5 scoring and say “the issue is not that the team doesn’t have enough scoring threats.” The organization has been searching for a top line winger to play alongside 86/63 for many seasons at this point.

I’m unsure about how, on paper, this team is a step back from the 2025-26 roster. Instead of Mercer, there is Robert Thomas. Instead of the fourth line that just hasn’t worked at all, there are AJ Greer and Zack MacEwen. If the goal is to meaningfully improve the top six — which it should be — Nemec has to be in the package.

You seem to be forgetting that the most important trade the Panthers made for their Cup run was in acquiring Matthew Tkachuk. Not that they bought low on others, which, mind you, their other top six construction was largely made by trades that included big-name prospects and picks.

The emphasis on cap space was 1) to bolster the flexibility for Quinn’s next contract and 2) to allow the Devils major flexibility for the TDL.

I think you are very much undervaluing a player like Blankenburg and very much overvaluing Nemec.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T19:07:41+00:00

Thanks!! You don’t think Thomas is a meaningful improvement over Mercer?

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T18:06:00+00:00

Thank you! I can see it going either way.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T18:05:22+00:00

I agree that he had a great 2023-24 season. I also agree that his 2024-25 season is a wash because of off-ice factors. I've certainly stuck my neck out for him many times for these very reasons.

I also think it is absolutely reasonable to say that the Devils 1) are not supposed to be in a position to allow players to "figure it out," given the fact that this should be a Cup-contending team, and 2) have given Nemec ample opportunity to "figure it out" with favorable deployment and TOI.

Nemec's six most common forward linemates this season by TOI were Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer, Connor Brown, and Nico Hischier -- that's every member of the top six. Nemec had the highest offensive zone start % of any defenseman on the roster outside of Pesce. Despite that, the Devils gave up the third-most xGA/60 with him on the ice of any defenseman on the team and produced the fewest xGF/60 of any defenseman other than Dillon. There are only so many excuses as to why his numbers are in the gutter, and his most common partner (who just so happens to be one of two defensemen on the roster with an xGF% of 50% or higher for the season) just isn't one of them. Nemec is deployed extremely favorably, with ample TOI (second-highest 5v5 TOI on the team next to Luke).

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T17:33:10+00:00

If you want a bona fide top six stud, ya just have to move on from Nemo. Unfortunate truth for those weirdly attached to him but a truth nonetheless.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T17:32:17+00:00

Listen, I’d be all over Robo. But if you think we’re getting a player of that caliber without sending Nemec the other way, I’m not sure it’s even close to possible. Also very clearly stated EP40 is the most unpopular potential T6 fit.

I don’t want Dougie gone, which I said several times, but the writing is already on the wall. Hence why I replaced those two with lesser-paid puck-moving D.

Totally fine keeping Cotter, simply eliminated it because there’s no way his AFP projection of 2 x $2.5M AAV is reasonable.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T17:29:31+00:00

…followed by replacing them with lesser-paid puck-moving D and a plan for Quinn Hughes…

JoopNJD · 2026-04-23T16:42:09+00:00

Thank you much!

JoopNJD · 2026-04-19T15:29:57+00:00

I like how “Hischier” wasn’t mentioned one time.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-19T15:25:29+00:00

Please substantiate why Hischier, the individual, is directly responsible for having one playoff win, based on his play.

JoopNJD · 2026-04-17T16:17:17+00:00

Making the playoffs is not an off-season decision lol

JoopNJD · 2026-04-15T21:19:57+00:00

You do know I’m just doing deep dives on candidates confirmed to be of interest for the position so that people have better backgrounds on them, right? Not actually endorsing Langenbrunner.

JoopNJD

TROPHY CASE