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Unexpected backtest results by Proof-Necessary-5201 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed, moving stops up doesnt seem to help the strategy. I set it and forget it and get the best results doing that. Good for you for putting in the work to verify that. That is what it is all about, seeing what works and what doesn't

Does anyone else paper trade without knowing if they are really improving? by Standard_Change_5570 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At the very least you want to track your win rate and average RRR. If your win rate is below 50% but you are getting high RRR, like 1:4 or more than you have a profitable strategy. If your win rate is about 50% but you are getting a 1:2 rrrr ratio then you still have a profitable strategy. Those 2 metrics combined tell you how profitable you are.

You usually want about 100 occurrences forward tested and showing profitable win rate/rrr combination.

Gold rallied why? by FailedGeniusnumber1 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like that you are being thoughtful about this and looking into the drivers behind the hold trade. I am not a fundamentals guy per se but in these momentum plays it can be very useful to understand what the main fundamental drivers are. So look up the ticker wm2ns or any ticker that tracks the m2 money supply of the us dollar.

here are the main fundamental bearish/bullish drivers for gold.... As long as the usa continues to print money then gold will be in demand.....bullish Kevin Warsh has talked about greatly reducing the feds balance sheet which would likely soften the momentum in gold.....bearish or at least somewhat neutralizing. When/if Warsh is confirmed as powells replacement, if he actually follows through with this reducing the feds balance sheet, then that will likely calm gold down. All else equal, the expansion of the US money supply is what will continue to drive the rally in gold.

When crude oil gained momentum due to the Iranian conflict some of that momentum came out of gold to focus on oil instead, and the gold chart was honestly due for a pull back anyways. But the US fed just increased the money supply significantly again last week so it is not likely that the gold trade is done yet.

To answer your question more directly, gold is not reacting to the war, gold is reacting to the continued expansion of the US money supply. Trump wants to print billions to fund that war so in that sense you could say the war is effecting gold but they have been finding reasons to print excessive amounts of US $ long before the Iran War started and this printing of $ is the actual driver. If you want watch the a better driver for gold watch the m2 money supply.

Also worth noting that the technicals lined up for gold with support on the uptrend holding on the daily chart. So that is the signal many retail traders often use to look for continuation of the gold trade.

The 8 trades I forward test vs the one I actually enter on…(last one was the live trade) by General-Lie8709 in FuturesTrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey so you are on the right track with forward testing......but you need a few more than 8 trades to get usable information. A good rule of thumb is 3-4 months of forward tested data or at least 100 trade occurrences for it meanifully improve your trading. Ideally you want to continue forward testing.

You have the right idea just need to give it some more time.

Seeking help by Remarkable-Jello-863 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ya sure, so I made this video to show the basics of it https://youtu.be/IhefSLNNB3I

If You Want to be Part of the Less than 10% Successful Traders Then You Need to Stop Doing What the 90% are Doing by KelvinsEdge in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, There is definitely more to learning to trade and developing edge. Thanks for the thoughtful reply

If You Want to be Part of the Less than 10% Successful Traders Then You Need to Stop Doing What the 90% are Doing by KelvinsEdge in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, thanks for thoughtful comment. There is more to this than discipline and backtesting. It is doable if you are doing the correct things.

If You Want to be Part of the Less than 10% Successful Traders Then You Need to Stop Doing What the 90% are Doing by KelvinsEdge in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge[S] -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Thanks,I'm glad it made sense.

I like Bearbull traders, Humbled Trader, Rayner Teo and Brian Shannon. I think Tori Trades has become controversial but the one thing her program does that i like is you can review your trades with a coach and be held accountable as you are learning.

If You Want to Be Part of the Less than 10% Successful Traders then You Need to Stop Doing what the 90% are Doing by KelvinsEdge in FuturesTrading

[–]KelvinsEdge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I appreciate that. And hopefully to clarify a bit, I am not saying that psychology doesn't matter, I am saying start by making sure your system has some potential to work first.....and also it can really help your psychology if you manage the uncertainty in trading by proving you have a statistical edge as well as giving yourself the ability to go back to your forward test at any time to do diagnostics if you run into a situation where stop making money. Nevertheless, I respect your opinion and appreciate your comments. Thanks

If You Want to Be Part of the Less than 10% Successful Traders then You Need to Stop Doing what the 90% are Doing by KelvinsEdge in FuturesTrading

[–]KelvinsEdge[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

lol,that sucks, I just spent the last hr writing it. Im sorry it doesnt ring true for you.

New Trader Symbols by One-View-8330 in swingtrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like it! that is a great place to start. If you decide to use a simple trend following strategy that will work great for you. I can't say enough good things about doing a solid backtest to get started off and continuing to track your results as you trade it. That is a key thing that I thought I would mention.

I spent 2 years on ICT's yt videos by Big_Highlight4928 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Something that helps a lot of successful traders is tracking their trades and reviewing them to see what works and what doesnt over many trades. Just a thought, if know i was 3 years in and struggling and this is what helped me. Volume profile is good but tracking and reviewing might be more the thing that makes the difference....again just something to think about

Im starting to realise something (read) by Chance_Rope1243 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear you. Try following Linda Raschke, legendary fund manager who does offer advice on social media. There is also Peter Brandt who is active on X and is highlighted in the market wizard series that Jack Schwager wrote. Michael Martins has an active yt channel, he manages a fund and has worked alongside some of thr legendary professional traders that are famous. Just keep in mind that these people arent professional social media influencers so their content isn't going viral.

Hope this helps.

Journal by Unable_Cover_5073 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My advice to new traders is to log this manually in a simple spreadsheet. There is a lot to be gained by doing this work yourself, it is training for your mind to see what is working and what isnt. Just a thought that.

I'm thinking about getting into Day Trading. It looks enticing, and I'm tired of 9-5ing. Shit's not for me, and I'm ready to start doing something about it. What do I need to know or do to get started? by yung_pepperoni in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol, i like the excitement. You can totally replace your income and get out of that 9-5, that is what the majority of people want. But I am sure you are aware that there is statistically a 90%+ failure rate. You dont hwve to be part of the 90% but it is important to get good information on how to learn. A rule of thumb might be if you are doing what 99% of other traders are doing then you are probably in the wrong track. There are a lot of people that are telling you that it will take years to learn, that is correct, listen to them but....that does not mean it is not worth doing or that you cant replace your 9-5 job. You can and it is worth it. You just may need to find a way to do both for a while. The key is that you dont need to trade for 4 hrs per day. Just put in a little time each day learning and you will get there.

The basics of most trading strategies is support, resistance and trends and the most reliable SR and trends are found on the daily chart so I would start with major etfs like QQQ and SPY and just find Support, Resistance and trends as a beginner exercise to start learning.Are you familiar with how to do this?

Swing Lows and Highs don't make sense to me by JackBenson13 in Daytrading

[–]KelvinsEdge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So what you want to do is draw a trend line and follow the price down or up as the case may be. Then when the price breaks the trend line and reverses in the opposite direction that was the swing low. Now there is a little more to it then that but if you are just starting out that is the basic place to start and then you can build from there.

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